WSN Team Statistics Have Arrived

Published by Charles | Filed under Football (aka soccer), New Features, Sports Betting

With great enthusiasm, WSN is proud to release our new Team Statistics pages today at 6:00 PM. These team pages show basic team information with detailed historical statistics concerning the teams’ performance on Asian Handicap and Over/Under style sports betting. While most football betting statistics focus on European Fixed Odds (1×2), our statistics focus on the dominant betting style in our region, team handicapping. You can find the team pages easily through our search or by clicking on the team name anywhere you find it, like on the league tables pages. Check out the current league leaders right now: Arsenal FC, Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Bayern Munich.

One of the most valuable parts of the team page is the ability to compare the past performance of each team to the historical handicaps and odds associated with each match. While our database has only been gathering data for a short period, we can already deliver compelling information in the way of past Asian Handicap and Over/Under performance.

The most exciting data on the new team pages is the Margin statistic we provide in addition to the Asian Handicap. We have designed this statistic to quickly show users how the team has been performing in relation to the public’s performance expectations. We calculate this statistic by determining the number of goals between the Asian Handicap and the margin of victory. For example, if a team wins a game by 3 goals and was a 1 goal favorite, there would be a Margin of +2. If the same team lost the same game by 3 goals, there would be a Margin of -4. A Margin of 0-1 (+ or -) is typical and does not indicate any significant gap in expectations. A Margin of greater than 1 starts to deserve attention and the significance of the Margin increases as it grows. Obviously a single Margin statistic does not provide visionary insight into a team’s upcoming performance. Trends in Margin, however, do illuminate betting opportunities for sharp money to obtain value. If you can identify trends where the public has historically under or over valued a team’s performance, there could be an opportunity to capture profits before the rest of the public finds out.

To get a bit academic for a second, Asian Handicaps essentially define the equilibrium of public opinion through the theory of Rational Expectations. This economic theory suggests people consider all known information from the past along with future expectations when making decisions. The efficiency of stock markets offers the best example of this theory in action. In any given moment, the information surrounding a particular stock (or team in sports betting) is constant. As time passes, the information changes and so does the value of the stock based on the news. Let’s say that Mega Widget Inc.’s stock is valued at $10.00 a share and analysts are expecting an earnings report of $0.25/share later in the day. That afternoon Mega Widget’s PR Machine releases the earnings report and low and behold, the earnings per share are exactly $0.25/share. In this instance, the theory of Rational Expectations would expect the price per share to remain $10.00 despite the fact that the company made a glowing announcement that it had made $0.25 for every single share issued. Since this piece of information, the earnings guidance, was already factored into the stock’s valuation, the actual distribution and confirmation of this expectation had no real effect. Needless to say, if Mega Widget Inc. has released an earnings report that differed from the guidance, this piece of news would truly be “new” information and would be quickly reflected in the stock’s price.

When applied to sports betting, the theory of Rational Expectations makes for some interesting statistical analysis. When an Asian Handicap is published by a real-money sportsbook, this handicap acts as a market determined ”earning guidance” for the team. When a match completes and the handicap was perfect resulting in a push (A tie after applying the handicap – NOT a draw), the handicap (earnings guidance) matched the margin of victory (earnings report). Consequently, matches only create “real” information when the handicap and the margin of victory differ. This is Margin.

Next week at AiG the gentlemen from Mental Sports Online (MSO.com.cn) will be presenting a panel on innovations in sports statistics. I am keen to see their presentation and I wonder if they have anything as good as the Asian Handicap Margin statistic.

Stay tuned as we are right around the corner from releasing stunning football matchup pages.

We must give credit where credit is due and thank the good Canadians up at Covers.com for the inspiration to apply their NBA Basketball Margin statistic to Asian Handicap football betting.