BMW PGA Championship Predictions, Odds & Picks
- The European Tour’s flagship event was first played in 1955
- A poor weather forecast will add to the test at Wentworth Golf Club
- Englishman Tommy Fleetwood and American Patrick Reed head the betting
BMW PGA Championship Odds
|Erik van Rooyen||+2500|
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BMW PGA Championship Odds Our Picks
England’s Sam Horsfield won twice in August and can grab a third victory at a course where he shone when making his tournament debut. He’s +5000 for the win at bet365.
Andy Sullivan has a consistent record at Wentworth and can handle the testing conditions. He can outscore Mike Lorenzo-Vera in a 72-hole match -159 DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sweden’s Alexander Bjork is a strong poor-weather performer and is playing well enough to land a top 20 at +450 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sam Horsfield to win +5000 at bet365
Andy Sullivan to beat Mike Lorenzo-Vera in a match-bet -159 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Alexander Bjork to land a top 20 +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook
How to Watch the BMW PGA Championship
|BMW PGA Championship Information|
|What||BMW PGA Championship|
|Where||Wentworth Golf Club, Virginia Water, Surrey, England|
|When||Thursday, October 08 – Sunday, October 11|
|How to Watch||Thursday & Friday 6.30am-9.40am ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 6.00am-9.40pm (Golf Channel), Sunday 6.00am-9.40am (Golf Channel). All 4 days on Sky Sports|
BMW PGA Championship Profile
The European Tour’s traditional flagship event, which debuted in 1955, was always pencilled in for May. In 2019 it moved to September and this year it’s been put back even further due to the calendar change caused by COVID-19. England in October isn’t the nicest place to be in terms of weather and the forecast looks fairly grim this week with rain predicted for all four days. Still, that’s all part of the deal and those who don’t fancy it will quickly slide down the leaderboard.
There are plenty of big names on show and American Patrick Reed – always keen to be considered a global golfer – has flown over to join a strong home contingent. The Texan finished fourth on his Wentworth debut last year.
Alongside Reed, four Englishmen round out the top five in the betting. Tommy Fleetwood shares favoritism with the former Masters champ, while Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton and Justin Rose will also be hoping to score a home win. Add in a host of other Ryder Cup stars along with highly promising youngsters such as Rasmus Hojgaard and Aaron Rai, and this is the best field assembled in the UK since lockdown was lifted.
As with last week’s Scottish Open, this is a Rolex Series event with a hefty $7,000,000 prize fund.
Players may want to remind themselves of the prize money on offer when the weather gets miserable and the waterproofs come out.
Horsfield Can Score Home Win
Sam Horsfield was the European Tour’s hottest player in August when he followed up his breakthrough first victory with a second just two weeks later. The first came on home English soli when shooting 18-under to win the Hero Open. And he shot the same number to land the Celtic Classic in Wales.
After taking over a month off he returned to action by missing the cut at last week’s Scottish Open. However, his round scores were interesting: 76 followed by 66. One easy interpretation is that the first reflected rust while the second suggested he’s ready to take flight again. Hopefully, that will come this week at Wentworth.
The 24-year-old made a superb debut in this event two years ago when opening 67-68 to sit second at halfway. And he was still third on the leaderboard with 18 to play. Horsfield slipped back on Sunday to tied 15th but it was a memorable week for the then 22-year-old and he also opened with three under-par rounds last year before dropping back again in round four.
The other question is: can he handle the weather? The answer to that comes from looking at the top finishers in the 2018 British Masters – an event played in poor weather in October, the same deal as this week.
Horsfield dug deep that week to finish in a tie for fifth, showing he had plenty of mental strength to go with the obvious talent.
Tipped for great things since his family moved to Florida when he was still a youngster, he’s really making it happen now and could be ready to take the next step up and win a Rolex Series event.
Take Horsfield at +5000 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sullivan To Outscore Lorenzo-Vera
Joost Luiten got us back to winning ways on the 72-hole match bet front in Scotland last week and hopefully that’s the start of a new streak.
These bets are about who can you trust most and the answer seems obvious in the match up featuring England’s Andy Sullivan against Frenchman Mike Lorenzo-Vera.
Sullivan has solid course form having made his last six cuts at Wentworth; five of those resulted in finishes inside the top 35. He can also handle bad weather. The former Ryder Cup star was tied 9th in that October British Masters in 2018 and battled the elements again to take tied 26th in last week’s Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. Quite simply, Sullivan enjoys playing on his own turf and his last four starts on English soil show form figures of 9-1-41-4.
Lorenzo-Vera, by contrast, has played seven times at Wentworth, missed three cuts and never finished in the top 35. He also struggled when the weather turned poor in Scotland last week, finishing 76-73 to drop to tied 42nd. His previous two events had been a missed cut in the US Open (73-77) and tied 43rd in the PGA Championship. In other words, he has very little golf under his belt in recent months and it’s a big ask to suddenly pull out a good performance on a course where he’s failed to crack the code.
Sullivan holds the aces and is a must at -159 to outscore his French rival.
Bjork To Land In Top 20
Several players pop up on both lists when looking at past form in the two poor October weather events discussed – the 2018 British Masters and last week’s Scottish Open.
One of those is Alexander Bjork, who was runner-up in the former and tied 19th in the latter. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that a Swede who grew up in cooler climes should be in his comfort zone when it’s necessary to go into battle with beanies and plenty of outerwear.
Two of his last four starts in England have resulted in top threes while at Wentworth he’s 3-for-3. That includes tied 14th on debut while he twice fired in the 60s last year.
He’s striking his irons extremely well (top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach in his last three starts) and he has progressive form of T57 at Valderrama, T24 in Portugal and T19 last week.
Bottom line, Bjork looks a value bet to finish in the top 20 at +450 DrafKings Sportsbook.
More Golf Predictions & Odds
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.