2020 Peter Pan Stakes (Saratoga) - Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

Saratoga Peter Pan Stakes 2020

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“If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick, Mystic Guide (7/2)”

Peter Pan Stakes – Odds

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2020 Peter Pan Stakes at Saratoga!

PPHorseOddsJockeyTrainer
1MO HAWK12/1
(BET NOW)
J Rosario.R Brisset
2COUNTRY GRAMMER6/1
(BET NOW)
I Ortiz Jr.C Brown
3MODERNIST3/1
(BET NOW)
J AlvaradoW Mott
4CELTIC STRIKER6/1
(BET NOW)
M FrancoR Handal
5CANDY TYCOON5/1
(BET NOW)
J VelazquezT Pletcher
6MYSTIC GUIDE7/2
(BET NOW)
J OrtizM Stidham
7CARACARO6/1
(BET NOW)
J CastellanoG Delgado
8CHESTERTOWN12/1
(BET NOW)
R Santana Jr.S Asmussen
9KATZARELLI20/1
(BET NOW)
D DavisT Amoss

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Led by the promising Mystic Guide and the graded stakes-winning Modernist, a field of nine 3-year-olds with Kentucky Derby aspirations will line up for the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes on opening day at Saratoga.

A Godolphin homebred trained by Mike Stidham, Mystic Guide will be making his stakes debut in the 9 furlong Peter Pan after three promising races to begin his career. Out of a multiple Grade 1 winning A.P. Indy mare, Music Note, the son of Ghostzapper exits a fast allowance race at Belmont Park where he finished second to Tap It to Win.

Modernist, meanwhile, disappointed when seventh behind division leader Tiz the Law in the recent Belmont Stakes, but before that displayed strong form in stakes racing at Fair Grounds. The son of Uncle Mo won a division of the Grade 2 Risen Star in February, and then finished a good third from a far outside post in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

This year’s Peter Pan will offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top-four finishers on a scale of 50-20-10-5.

Peter Pan Stakes Race Information

What to watchPeter Pan Stakes (G3)
WhereSaratoga Race Course
WhenThursday, July 16 — 5:46 pm Eastern time
How to watchFox Sports
Purse$100,000

Race Analysis

Modernist

A grade 2 winner, he enters the Peter Pan as the most proven horse in the field. Trained by the Hall of Famer Bill Mott, this son of Uncle Mo got off to less than an ideal start in the Belmont Stakes, and then was not good enough to ever make much impact in this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown. Thursday’s field is certainly a step down in class, though, and his form in New Orleans certainly indicates that he fits in with these. He’s twice won at the distance, and should be able to bounce back from his effort against tougher in the Belmont. Overall, there is a lot to like here, and it will likely take a good effort to beat him.

Mystic Guide

As a son of a brilliant Horse of the Year and a topnotch mare who won five Grade 1 races in her 12-race career, this one has every right to be a good one. He’s yet to prove it, but in each of his first three races, he gives the impression of a horse destined for better things. He’s improved with each start, and although beaten in allowance company last time, he rallied well between horses, and was only beaten by a horse who blitzed the field on the front end. Given the added experience, he should only be better for this test. The distance of 9 furlongs should also suit him. With plenty of speed out in front, look for him to be finishing fastest of all down the lane. He is the top pick.

Candy Tycoon

Last out, Candy Tycoon finished second at Oaklawn Park in early May. That race was won by Rushie, who already has come back to finish third in the both the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and this past weekend’s Blue Grass (G2). Before that the Todd Pletcher charge was sixth in the Florida Derby (G1) and a distant second in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Unlike a few of the others in here, he’s already had plenty of chances, having run eight times without a major breakthrough. Having said that, his four races this year are good enough to believe he has at least a fighting chance to do something good on Thursday.

Celtic Striker

At first glance his frontrunning 19 3/4-length victory last time out in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont might look like a difference-maker in this field, but that race was reduced to a two-horse field due to scratches, and the other horse had little early speed. In the Peter Pan, there is plenty of other speed which should in turn make his life much more difficult. In previous attempts against graded stakes competition, he wilted under the pace pressure, so I will take a stand against him in the Peter Pan.

Caracaro

Another with plenty of early speed, he began his career with a pair of promising races in South Florida, but he has been away since rolling to a maiden win in January. Six months away from the races and stretching out to 1 ⅛-miles is a tough ask, but the son of Uncle Mo appears to have plenty of talent. He also comes in off solid recent workouts down at Gulfstream Park West for trainer Gustavo Delgado. Look for him to be fresh and flaunting his early foot on Thursday, and while I do like him best of the speed, I do not trust that he can put them away and still hold off the challengers from behind.

Country Grammer

It’s always wise to give horses coming from the Chad Brown barn a second look at Saratoga, and this son of Tonalist has the right to improve. He’s only run on dirt three times in his career, and has just run twice so far this year. While a cut below the best in here, he’s not so far behind to believe that with a little maturity and improvement he couldn’t make some noise on Thursday. Sired by a Belmont Stakes winner, the 9 furlong trip should suit him just fine.

Mo Hawk

The well bred son of Uncle Mo began his career in California for trainer Bob Baffert with only moderate success. Since the trainer change to Rodolphe Brisset he has only one race, which came in a win against much cheaper on the turf at Indiana Grand. I think he has some talent, but this is a tough spot. Drawn on the rail, he should show plenty of speed, but with the other early pacesetters in the race, I cannot love his chances going longer than he has ever run before.

Chestertown

Blinkers will be on for him Thursday in hopes of turning around his recent mediocre form. The New York-bred son of Tapit certainly has the pedigree to be a good one, but has only been able to win a maiden race so far in six career starts. Perhaps he didn’t care for the muddy track last time, and maybe the blinkers will improve his focus, but there is just not enough in his past performance to be overly enthusiastic about his chances in the Peter Pan.

Katzarelli

This Tom Amoss-trained runner has graduated from relatively cheap claiming ranks to at least demonstrate that he belongs with allowance types. As for Thursday’s graded stakes test, he just does not look fast enough to expect anything better than an off the board finish.

Best Bets for the Peter Pan Stakes

Here are my plays ($35 in total)

$10 Exacta box Mystic Guide and Modernist  = $20

$5 Exacta part wheel Mystic Guide over Caracaro, Candy Tycoon and Country Grammer = $15

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick, Mystic Guide (7/2).

Bet on our pick: Mystic Guide (7/2)!

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Brian Zipse

Expert on Horse Racing

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

Email: brian.zipse@wsn.com