Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Pimlico) Predictions, Odds & Picks
If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Bonny South (7/5)
Post Position and Odds – Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Check out our predictions and odds for the 2020 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico!
|V Carrasco||R Reid Jr.|
|S Russell||C Summers|
|3||SO DARN HOT||6/1|
|G Saez||G Weaver|
|J Bravo||M Williams|
|F Geroux||B Cox|
|A Cintron||H DePaz|
|B Hernandez Jr.||N Casse|
|T McCarthy||A Margotta Jr.|
|D Centeno||J Ryerson|
|A Cruz||C Gonzalez|
|P Lopez||M Casse|
Best Bets for the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Here are my plays ($30 in total)
$10 Exacta part wheel – Bonny South over Hopeful Growth and So Darn Hot = $20
$5 Trifecta key Bonny South over Hopeful Growth and So Darn Hot = $10
Bonny South (7/5)
One race before the final leg of this year’s Triple Crown is run, the girls will look to upstage the boys running in the Preakness when they take to the track for the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. Saturday’s traditional race for 3-year-old fillies will be run at 1 ⅛-miles on the Pimlico main track.
Bonny South, a Juddmonte Farms homebred, looks to be the filly to beat in the $250,000 affair. Trained by Brad Cox, she was an impressive come from behind winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in March. After running fourth in the Grade 1 Ashland, she turned in another strong performance last time when a rallying second behind Swiss Skydiver in the 1 ¼-mile Alabama (G1) at Saratoga. She then bypassed the Kentucky Oaks in favor of an easier spot in Saturday’s Black-Eyed Susan.
Chief among her rivals in the 11-horse field will be the Monmouth Oaks winner Hopeful Growth. The daughter of Tapiture won that Grade 3 affair in New Jersey to begin August in style, before finishing mid-pack behind Shedaresthedevil in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) in her most recent start.
Another filly who should get plenty of attention at the betting windows is Perfect Alibi. Twice a graded stakes winner last year, she will look to get her sophomore season untracked in her fourth start this year and comes in off an improved effort last time when third in the local Weber City Miss Stakes.
How to Watch the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
|Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Race Information|
|What||Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2)|
|When||Saturday, October 3 — 4:41 pm Eastern time|
|How to Watch||NBC|
It should be all systems go for this classy daughter of Munnings. Trainer Brad Cox elected to hold her out of the Kentucky Oaks, and won the race anyway with her stablemate Shedaresthedevil. Now Bonny South is back seven weeks removed from an excellent performance when a strong closing second in the Grade 1 Alabama. I expect the step down in class to the Black-Eyed Susan will be an ideal prep for bigger and better things, and one she should win hands down. The 9-furlong distance should be perfect here, as will all the early pace in here to run at. Look for Bonny South to return to the winner’s circle in style on Saturday.
So Darn Hot
If there is one filly in here who I could see really stepping up her game and giving the strong top pick a run, it is this daughter of Ghostzapper. Although she has only won once in four starts, I like the progression she made to breaking her maiden in her third career start. That romping victory at Belmont was not only very fast, but it came at the hands of another filly of promise. Last time, I believe she was compromised by the sloppy track when second behind Landing Zone. I expect another move forward off that effort.
She will get a serious class test on Saturday after running right through her competition in each of her last three starts. Not only will she find the competition much tougher, but she will also be faced with plenty of other speed types in the 1 ⅛-mile race. Keep in mind that in those three consecutive wins she caught a sloppy track in two of them and the other was much cheaper. She is going well, but I will take a stand against by far the most experienced filly in the field.
After Bonny South, this one looks like the most likely to run a strong race on Saturday. She progressed nicely from start to start this year, and her win in the Monmouth Oaks two starts back was decisive. Her sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks was nothing to write home about, but that race was certainly much tougher than this, and the performance does not discourage me as she steps down in class. She also a mid-pack running style which should do well behind the expected contentious early pace, as well as the 9-furlong trip.
She won two graded stakes last year at Saratoga, including the Grade 1 Spinaway, and didn’t run all that badly when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. This year has been a different story, though. She was absolutely trounced by Gamine twice, and although that one is a big talent, her efforts behind her were not good. She did show signs of life last time at Laurel, but I still don’t know if that is good enough to expect her to fully turn things around on Saturday. Perhaps the blinkers will help.
The one-time claimer turned in a career-best performance last time when going wire-to-wire for an easy victory in the Bison City Stakes at Woodbine. That came over a synthetic surface, but it seems like she can also handle dirt. The problem is that she is one of many here in with early speed, and while she is one of the more dangerous pace setters, it does not look like a good spot for her to carry her speed all the way.
Another filly with early speed, she enters the Black-Eyed Susan off two straight victories over allowance company. The most recent actually was quite good when she completed 9 furlongs at Saratoga in 1:49 and change. Still, things only get tougher on Saturday, and with the other speed entered, it looks like her winning streak will come to an end.
She is a two-time stakes winner, and the upsetter of the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks at odds of 38-1 three starts back. With plenty of speed in here, though, I do not see a repeat of her win in Delaware as a likely outcome. She looks just a little cheaper than others in here.
This daughter of Graydar will be running in her eight consecutive stakes race on Saturday, and she has yet to find the winner’s circle in any of the previous seven attempts. She exits a tougher test in the Kentucky Oaks, but there she trailed throughout. I predict her winless streak will continue.
The Canadian-bred daughter of Tonalist looks to be a bit of a grinder. She was no match for the classy Harvey’s Lil Goil earlier this year in New York but returned with a pair of decent efforts against stakes company in Kentucky and Canada. I can’t recommend her as a major threat, but on the other hand, I would not be surprised if she hit the board underneath.
The late-running filly has only been able to win once in six starts while facing only New York-breds. While she does seem to be on the improve and can handle the distance, this spot looks to be a bit beyond her ability.
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Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
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