Rachel Alexandra Stakes: Hoosier Philly is Very Talented and Seems to Be Very Tactical in Her Running Style

Rachel Alexandra Stakes Odds and Post Position

Check out our predictions and odds for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds!

Rachel Alexandra Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

• $20 Trifecta Part Wheel - Hoosier Philly over Pretty Mischievous over Chop Chop and Knockyoursocksoff = $40 
• $10 Trifecta Part Wheel - Hoosier Philly over Chop Chop and Knockyoursocksoff over Pretty Mischievous = $20 
• If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Hoosier Philly (6/5)

Unbeaten and untested in three starts last season, Hoosier Philly returns to show the world what she can do at 3 as she headlines a field of six Kentucky Oaks hopefuls in Saturday’s Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds. 

A perfect 2-year-old campaign for trainer Tom Amoss included romping victories in both the Grade 2 Golden Rod and the Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs. 

One of only two fillies to be nominated to this year’s Triple Crown, this will be the daughter of Into Mischief’s first race away from the Louisville, Kentucky oval.

Chief among her opposition in the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra will be the Brad Cox-trained Chop Chop. 

Most recently, she was the runner-up in the Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds and last year she just missed in the Grade 1 Alcibiades. The CIty of Light filly was also a stakes winner on the turf in 2022.

Another who should get strong consideration on Saturday is Pretty Mischievous from the barn of Brendan Walsh. 

A daughter of Into Mischief, she was third to Hoosier Philly in last year’s Golden Rod but returned to convincingly win the local Untapable Stakes.

As a Kentucky Oaks trail race, the 1 1/16-mile Rachel Alexandra will offer qualifying points on a scale of 50-20-15-10-5 to the top five finishers.

Rachel Alexandra Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Hoosier Philly

Her veteran trainer is on record as saying that he has never had a more promising horse in the barn than this daughter of Into Mischief. There could be some hyperbole there, but it’s hard to ignore what she did in her first three starts. 

After a promising debut win while sprinting, she stretched out to romp in both the Rags to Riches on the slop and the Grade 2 Golden Rod on a fast track. I guess you could say that she will need to prove it on a different track then Churchill Downs. 

The way she has looked in the mornings at Fair Grounds, though, I don’t think that will be a problem. She’s very talented and seems to be very tactical in her running style. I believe she is the best 3-year-old filly in the country. She is the top pick.

Chop Chop

Trained by Brad Cox, this City of Light filly will add blinkers to see if she can improve upon her recent efforts. After winning her first two career starts, which include a stakes race and both coming on the turf, she has now lost three in a row. 

Her efforts when second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades, and last time when runner-up in the recent Silverbulletday, were both good, but she wasn’t quite able to get the job done.

In between, a wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies left her with little chance. She’s got class, and is a threat, but I don’t expect her to beat Hoosier Philly here.

Pretty Mischievous

While Hoosier Philly could be something special, the other daughter of Into Mischief is being somewhat overlooked. That is understandable, as she was no match for the favorite when last they met, but this Brendan Walsh filly has looked good in winning each of her other three starts. 

She looked really good last time, over the Fair Grounds track, when she proved much the best in the Untapable Stakes. That effort was flattered when the runner-up The Alys Look came back to beat Chop Chop next out. 

She is a consistent filly who has a nice win over the track. The third choice on the morning line, I like her second best here.

Vahva

This daughter of Gun Runner has been well backed so far in her four career races. In fact, she was favored over Pretty Mischievous and The Alys Look in the Untapable, but could do better than a well beaten third after a stumble at the start. 

Perhaps the Cherie DeVaux-trained filly can do better with a good start here, but this group only gets tougher with the likes of Hoosier Philly. 

Breaking from the rail on Saturday, I could see her involved early, but for the stretch run, I like others better.

Knockyoursocksoff

Trained by Chris Block, you can expect this chestnut daughter of Kitten’s Joy to be the early trailer in this compact field of six. With little early speed, it then will just be a matter of how many fillies she can pass before they hit the wire. 

Having run three pretty good races on the grass to begin her career, including a second in the Grade 2 Jessamine, she transferred to the dirt last time and got up for second behind Hoosier Philly, and ahead of Pretty Mischievous in the Golden Rod. 

I do not like her for the win here, but another solid rally which carries her into the top three would come as no surprise at all.

Miracle

This New York-bred daughter of Mendelssohn will be making her first start for the strong barn of Todd Pletcher, after making her first four career starts for Rodolphe Brisset. 

She hasn’t done much wrong in her career with a big debut win against maidens, before finishing second or third in three consecutive stakes races. 

The problem for the New York shipper is that all those efforts came against state-breds. I expect the jump up to this kind of open company will be a little too much for her.

How to watch the Rachel Alexandra Stakes

• What: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Grade 2)
• Location: Fair Grounds
• Time: Saturday, February 18 -- 6:41 pm Eastern time
• How to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Purse: $300,000