Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Fair Grounds) Predictions, Odds & Picks
If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Travel Column (2/1)
Post Position and Odds – Rachel Alexandra Stakes
Check out our predictions and odds for the 2021 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds!
|J Talamo||S Asmussen|
|D Carroll||M Casse|
|A Beschizza||B Walsh|
|4||OFF WE GO||15/1|
|M Murrill||T Amoss|
|M Pedroza||S Gelner|
|J Graham||T Amoss|
|C J Hernandez||T Amoss|
|F Geroux||B Cox|
|B J Hernandez Jr||C Block|
Best Bets for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes
Here are my plays ($35 in total)
$10 Exacta part wheel -Travel Column over Souper Sensational, Clairiere and Charlie’s Penny = $30
$5 Exacta – Souper Sensational over Travel Column = $5
Travel Column (2/1)
Travel Column and Clairiere, the top two finishers in last fall’s Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs, headline a field of nine 3-year-old fillies with Kentucky Oaks aspirations in Saturday’s Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds.
In the Golden Rod, Travel Column overcame a troubled trip to roll late for the win in her third career start. Trained by Brad Cox, the Frosted filly is expected to be the favorite of that visually impressive victory. Clairiere, meanwhile, was a game second while making only her second career start. Like Travel Column, the daughter of Curlin will be making her seasonal debut in the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra.
Chief among their rivals in the 1 1/16-mile test will be Charlie’s Penny. The daughter of Race Day easily won the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds last month by 3 ¼-lengths, beating three fillies who will also be back to contest Saturday’s race.
Trainer Tom Amoss has three entered in the Rachel Alexandra in Zoom Up, Littlestitious, and Off We Go. Of the three, Zoom Up looks to be the preferred filly among bettors, having won two straight over the track in New Orleans.
The top four finishers in the Rachel Alexandra will earn important Kentucky Oaks qualifying points on a scale of 50-20-10-5.
How to Watch the Rachel Alexandra Stakes
|Rachel Alexandra Stakes Information|
|What||Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Grade 2)|
|When||Saturday, February 13 — 5:47 pm Central time|
|How to Watch||TVG|
Having watched all the problems she overcame to beat a good field in the Golden Rod, it’s hard not to believe this daughter of Frosted has a big future. Big enough to like her not only in here, but also to consider her a top contender for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. She will need to overcome her penchant for slow starts, and also come out running in her first start in nearly three months, but I suspect Cox will have her ready to go. Working out competitively with the 2-year-old Male Champion Essential Quality in the mornings certainly should have her well prepared. Like the Golden Rod, this is a quality field, but I like her once again. She is the top pick.
A product of the mating between a two-time Horse of the Year and a Grade 1 winning mare, she has certainly done nothing wrong in her short career. She was a determined winner, getting up late to win in her debut at Churchill Downs, before coming back with a very solid runner-up performance behind Travel Column. She gets that one again and draws the rail for Rachel Alexandra. As a filly without much speed, I am not crazy for the post, and considering her lack of experience, the regally bred filly likely may need another start or two before she really starts rolling. She would seem to have a big upside, and I have little doubt that she will develop into a stakes winner, but on Saturday, I prefer Travel Column.
Having been easily defeated by Souper Sensational last year at Woodbine, I was hesitant to back her in the Silverbulletday. She proved me wrong with a decisive victory at odds of 9-1. Perhaps the race set up for her perfectly as others fared worse at the break, while she was able to get a good stalking position. Still, it was a very impressive performance over the track and in her first try around two turns. On Saturday, she drew an outside post, so she should be able to work out another good stalking trip. I’m not sure if she is as talented as a few others in here, but I have to respect her off the last.
The first of three from the New Orleans native, Amoss, she has improved with each start and is well versed over the main track at Fair Grounds. The competition will certainly be tougher than what she faced in her two local wins, but an affinity for the track should not be discounted. Having said that, she will probably still need to make another move forward to win against this bunch. Like the one just below her, I think she is dangerous, but I am siding with that one as my top longshot in the Rachel Alexandra.
After showing good speed in her two easy wins on the Tapeta surface up at Woodbine, this Curlin filly got squeezed back at the start and was last early behind a rather slow pace in the local Silverbulletday. I still believe the talented Casse-trainee will be just fine on dirt, and all in all, the second-place finish was not so bad. She should be much more involved early on Saturday, which will likely help her chances. I expect her to improve upon her first local effort, and at the odds, I think she offers very good value.
After a big win at Delta Downs, this Amoss trained daughter of Ghostzapper tried her luck against better in the Silverbulletday. Despite pretty slow early fractions, she could not withstand the pace pressure and was well back at the wire. She once again figures to be out there on the lead on Saturday, but in a tougher field, I cannot really expect a better result this time around.
Off We Go
The third of three from the Amoss barn, the daughter of Air Force Blue has only sprinted so far in four career starts. She’s only won once, but was second in two others, including a runner-up to Travel Column in both of their career debuts. She is eligible to improve off a useful prep over the track, but she would need a serious jump forward to make serious noise against this tough field.
She ran a decent third behind Charlie’s Penny and Souper Sensational last time in the Silverbulletday as a big longshot. After a bit of trouble, the Malibu Moon filly stayed on well but was never really a threat to the winner. It was her best effort yet, but having not particularly liked her that day, I did not see enough to get on her bandwagon in an even tougher event on Saturday.
This daughter of Orb has good early speed and is coming in off two straight wins after having lost her first four. Unfortunately, those wins came against much cheaper in a maiden race at Fair Grounds and then an allowance race on the turf at Sam Houston. While she is heading in the right direction, the Scott Gelner trained filly looks neither fast enough or classy enough to believe she can compete with some of the most talented young fillies in the nation.
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Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
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