Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips

  • Italy are seeking their second European Championship after victory in 1972
  • England have never even reached the final of this competition before the current edition
  • These two teams are evenly matched but Italy might just have the edge


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Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Odds

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To Win the Match Odds
Italy +190
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Tie +200
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England +170
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Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Prediction and Pick

Our Pick

Back Italy to beat England. As the odds suggest, there is little to choose between these two teams and no outcome would be a surprise. Yet while England are playing on home soil, the slightly better odds and the strength of their midfield means it is worth backing Italy to triumph.

The best odds for this match

Odds provided by William Hill

How to Watch Italy vs England

Italy vs England Information
Teams Italy vs England
Location Wembley Stadium, London, England
Time Sunday, 11 July 2021, 15.00 PM EDT
How to watch ESPN

Italy Edge Out Spain in Absorbing Semi to Reach Another Final

Italy’s defeat of Spain in the first semi-final of Euro 2020 was the game of the tournament so far. Soccer is not just about goals, and while 4-4 draw and 5-4 victories are invariably full of entertainment and incident, the very best matches often feature considerably fewer goals. Italy 1-1 Spain was a fine example. This was an absorbing, high-quality contest, with two teams adopting different games plans but excelling in their respective approaches.

Italy could have had few complaints had Spain ultimately triumphed. Luis Enrique’s side was probably the better team in the first 90 minutes, despite falling behind to a Federico Chiesa goal. Alvaro Morata got Spain back on level terms to force extra time, and it was they who were the more disappointed when the score remained 1-1 after two hours of soccer. That feeling was only compounded when Italy went on to win the penalty shoot-out.

The Azzurri have had a tricky route to the final. They were thrilling in the group phase, breezing past Turkey and Switzerland in back-to-back 3-0 wins, before comfortably beating Wales 1-0 despite rotating their team. The round of 16 brought a surprisingly stiff test in the form of Austria before Italy overcame Belgium (the No.1 side in FIFA’s World Rankings) and Spain (one of the strongest teams in the tournament) to book their place at Wembley for Sunday’s showpiece.

Whereas the group phase brought talk of a new iteration of Italy who pressed high up the pitch and took risks in attack, the knockout stage has seen old-school Italian robustness return. Roberto Mancini has blended the old with the new to great effect, and we will see both sides to their identity on Sunday. Italy have demonstrated great flexibility throughout the competition, which is why they have been able to overcome a variety of challenges.

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England Make History by Holding Their Nerve Against Denmark

England’s route to the final has been different to Italy’s. Gareth Southgate’s side were far from thrilling in the group stage. A 0-0 draw with Scotland was sandwiched between 1-0 victories over Croatia and Czech Republic. That was enough to see England finish top of Group D, but not sufficient to placate some of the critics who called for more adventure and ambition. Southgate clearly had a plan, though, and subsequent results have vindicated his approach.

England once again refused to go gung-ho against Germany in the round of 16, instead biding their time and striking at the right moment. True, the Mannschaft missed some presentable openings and could have edged the encounter on another day, but England were ultimately good value for their 2-0 triumph. Unlike their opponents, the Three Lions had a clear plan of how to win.

Southgate’s side then turned on the style in a 4-0 thrashing of Ukraine in the quarter-finals, albeit without sacrificing any of the defensive solidity that has been the hallmark of England’s progress this summer. Mikkel Damsgaard’s excellent free-kick for Denmark in Wednesday’s semi-final is the only goal they have conceded all tournament. That strike left England trailing, but they held their nerve, kept their composure, and eventually recorded a well-deserved 2-1 victory.

Given the nation’s size, wealth and soccer tradition, it is remarkable that England are set to compete in their first-ever European Championship final. The three they have managed this summer represent 75 percent of England’s all-time wins in the knockout stage of this competition. Southgate and his players are one more victory away from a place in the history books.

The First Goal Could Be Crucial but Italy Are Probably Best Bet

Italy took the initiative in the group stage and against Austria, but in the second half against Belgium and throughout their tie with Spain, the Azzurri were on the back foot. Their focus in the semi-final was on keeping things tight at the back and then breaking forward with speed.

We will see Italy have more of the ball on Sunday than they did on Tuesday, but both teams would love to be in a situation where they are protecting a lead. That would open up space on the counter-attack, in which the likes of Raheem Sterling, Bukayo Saka, Chiesa and Lorenzo Insigne can flourish.

One area in which Italy have the edge is in midfield, where Nicolo Barella, Jorginho, and Marco Verratti have excelled up to now. That trio’s ability to keep the ball could ultimately make the difference, especially if Mancini’s men can get their noses in front. It is a tough game to call, but Italy are probably the slightly better bet in the Euro 2020 final.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]