Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds & Picks

  • It is a heavyweight final as the biggest clubs in France and Germany go head-to-head for the grandest prize of all
  • Bayern Munich are favorites and have enjoyed a phenomenal 2020 to date
  • Yet the odds and the teams’ respective semi-final performances suggest PSG could claim the trophy

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Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich Odds

Match Winner Odds
Bayern Munich +105
Tie +280
PSG +235


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Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich Predictions and Picks

Bayern Munich has been the bookmakers’ favorites to win this season’s Champions League since the knockout stage resumed at the start of the month. Unsurprisingly, their results since then – an 8-2 demolition of Barcelona followed by a 3-0 victory over Lyon on Wednesday – have not impacted upon that status.

However, this could finally be PSG’s year. Thomas Tuchel’s side was excellent in their semi-final defeat of RB Leipzig and the team looks to have found a balance that has eluded it for several years. With Bayern Munich having looked somewhat shaky defensively in recent outings, it is worth backing PSG to win the competition for the first time in their history.


Paris Saint-Germain to win +235

How to Watch Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich

Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich Information
What Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich
Where Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
When Sunday, 23 August, 3 PM ET
How to Watch CBS All Access

Bayern Munich have shown signs of vulnerability despite a flurry of goals

A quick glance at the scoreline does not tell the full story of Lyon 0-3 Bayern Munich. The Bundesliga champions deserved to triumph but the match was far closer than the result makes it seem, and Bayern could easily have found themselves behind in the opening quarter. Indeed, it was Lyon who made the brighter start on Wednesday, repeatedly breaking in behind the Bayern backline and twice going close through Memphis Depay and Karl Toko Ekambi. Had the French outfit had a more clinical edge up front, this could have been a vastly different contest.

As it was, Lyon was wasteful with their opportunities and Bayern was ruthless with theirs. Serge Gnabry broke the deadlock with a wonderful goal, cutting infield from the right-wing before locating the top corner of the net with his weaker left foot.

Yet even after Gnabry added his and Bayern’s second just after the half-hour mark, Lyon had spells where they were on top. Again, more composure and accurate finishing might have made Bayern sweat, and Hansi Flick will know that PSG is likely to be much less profligate if afforded the same openings.

Of course, Bayern will view their ability to win 3-0 despite not operating at maximum capacity as a positive. It could well be that the individual quality of Gnabry, Thomas Muller, Robert Lewandowski, and co. again comes through, but a repeat display against PSG is unlikely to end well for the Bavarians.

PSG impressed last time out and have become stronger collectively

PSG was close to suffering elimination from the Champions League in the quarter-finals, only for two late goals to turn their tie against Atalanta around. Their 2-1 win was ultimately a fair reflection of the match, however, and the same can be said for the comfortable 3-0 defeat of RB Leipzig in the last four.

PSG was better than their opponents in all departments, and the return to the side of Kylian Mbappe and Angel Di Maria meant they were less reliant on Neymar’s individual flourishes than in the meeting with Atalanta.

Indeed, the most pleasing aspect of PSG’s semi-final victory was the collective nature of it. Mbappe and Neymar will always be the stars, just as they would for virtually any other team on the planet, but Di Maria was the man of the match and Leandro Paredes helped knit the side together in midfield. Elsewhere, Thiago Silva marshaled the defense adeptly in his penultimate appearance for the club – indeed, PSG’s clean sheet was their seventh in 10 Champions League games this term.

Bayern Munich are superior to RB Leipzig, as the 2019/20 Bundesliga table shows. But the signs from their last two matches indicate that PSG are no longer simply just a collection of expensive individuals, and that bodes well for Sunday’s showdown at the Estadio da Luz.

PSG’s frontline has the speed and agility to exploit Bayern’s high line

Bayern’s clash with Barcelona was ultimately a massacre, so it is easy to forget that it was the Catalans who created the better chances in the opening stages. Lyon then showed this was not a one-off, with their dynamic forwards regularly taking advantage of Bayern’s high defensive line. David Alaba was superb at center-back and Alphonso Davies’ recovery speed is a significant asset, but Bayern have shown in the last two games that they can be vulnerable to pace in behind.

Defending with a high line is a very common tactic among Europe’s top teams, and the advanced positioning of the back four did help Bayern press Barcelona into submission in the quarter-finals. But if PSG is able to get the ball into the same positions as Lyon did, you can be sure that Neymar and Mbappe will be more clinical than Ekambi and Depay were.

Granted, Neymar has been hugely wasteful in the last two games, but his all-round displays have been terrific. PSG as a whole look balanced and organized in a way they rarely have over the last few years, and Di Maria’s willingness to drop back from the front three is essential to the functioning of this system. Bayern is a hugely impressive team and have more experience at this level, but PSG could exploit the key weakness in their game and win Sunday’s final.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]