Portugal vs Germany Euro 2020 Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips

Euro 2020 Portugal vs Germany

  • Portugal beat Hungary 3-0 last time out but the scoreline flattered them
  • Germany are under pressure following a 1-0 defeat by France earlier this week
  • Back Portugal to book their place in the knockout phase with victory here

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Euro 2020 Portugal vs Germany Odds

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Total Goals Odds
Portugal +225
Tie +234
Germany +130

Portugal vs Germany Pick

Germany might be the favorites with the sportsbooks, but that is based on reputation more than anything else.

Indeed, there is little recent evidence to suggest that this German side is stronger than the Portuguese team that will visit Munich on Saturday.

Our Pick
Die Mannschaft certainly have quality in their ranks, but a Portugal win is the best bet here at very attractive odds of +225.
The best odds for this match Odds provided by Unibet
Portugal to Win (+225) Bet Now

How to Watch Euro 2020 Portugal vs Germany

Portugal vs Germany Information
Teams Portugal vs Germany
Location Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Time Thursday, 19 June 2021, 12.00 PM EDT
How to watch ESPN

Portugal Stuttered in Opener but Still Got the Job Done

Scorelines do not always tell the full story of a soccer match, and that was certainly the case in Budapest on Tuesday.

A 3-0 victory appeared to suggest that Portugal had few problems against Hungary, who were playing in front of a full stadium in their national capital.

Not only had Fernando Santos’ side managed to score three goals – the joint-most of any team in the opening round of Euro 2020 fixtures – they also kept a clean sheet. To find faults in such a display would surely be an act of pedantry.

Yet this was not a 3-0 game, in the sense that the result flattered Portugal.

Sure, they dominated possession and took more shots than their opponents. But for most of the game, they failed to penetrate a stubborn Hungarian backline, and it took a deflected strike in the 84th minute for the reigning European champions to finally break the deadlock. They added two more goals before the final whistle, taking full advantage of the opening of the floodgates, but that was primarily down to a loss of focus from Hungary. Santos will know he has work to do ahead of meetings with Germany and France that will decide Portugal’s fate.

In a strange way, the Euro 2016 winners might actually be better suited to playing teams like Germany, even though die Mannschaft are clearly stronger than Hungary. Portugal will not be tasked with breaking down a deep and well-organized defense on Saturday. Germany, playing in front of a largely partisan crowd in Munich, will take the game to the Portuguese.

That could help the holders, who will look to soak up pressure and hit the de facto hosts on the counter-attack.

If that is indeed their game plan, Santos will probably make some changes to his starting XI. Rafa Silva and Renato Sanches both impressed as substitutes against Hungary, bringing drive, energy and speed to the team. There is also an argument for introducing a passer like Ruben Neves to the midfield pivot, although that perhaps goes against Santos’ conservative tendencies.

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Germany Lacked Cutting Edge in Opening Loss to France

Germany faced France, the world champions, in their first game, and suffered a 1-0 defeat that means the onus is on them to pick up at least a point on Saturday. There were elements of his team’s performance that will have pleased Joachim Low, the long-serving manager who will step down at the end of this tournament.

Germany had a lot of the ball, restricted a star-studded France attack to just one goal, and came on strong in the closing stages of the game.

However, Germany’s failure to find the net suggests they could struggle to get out of Group F, the toughest of all six segments at Euro 2020. Their passing lacked a cutting edge, and there was no one capable of taking opponents on in one-versus-one situations until Leroy Sane and Timo Werner entered the fray as second-half substitutes.

What Germany would do for an out-and-out center-forward like Miroslav Klose, the World Cup’s all-time leading goalscorer.

Serge Gnabry was quiet upfront against France, as Raphael Varane kept him under wraps. Doubts persist over the 3-4-2-1 formation too, particularly as Joshua Kimmich – one of Germany’s best players overall – is not a natural wing-back.

No Home Advantage but Portugal Like Being Underdogs

No matter how it was achieved, Portugal’s win against Hungary gives them an edge going into this game.

Germany might yet expect to beat Hungary themselves, but they would much rather have those three points in the bag already. Because they do not, die Mannschaft will be obliged to push up the pitch and play a proactive game on Saturday, and Portugal will fancy their chances of doing damage to their opponents in transition.

This Portugal team looks well equipped to deal with what will probably be a front-foot approach from Germany.

Ruben Dias and Pepe are two of the best penalty-box defenders in the tournament, and the latter in particular will have no qualms about sitting deep and heading crosses clear.

Portugal’s full-backs are better going forward than they are at the back, but Germany might not have the width to exploit that weakness.

Going the other way, Portugal should cause problems with quick breaks forward. Executing successful counter-attacks is not just about pace; decision-making, namely over when to play the pass and to whom, is key too. Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva are incisive passers of the ball, and Ronaldo is an unrivaled goalscorer to get on the end of moves.

The final reason to favor Portugal is the price +225 vs +130 looks very generous given that they were more fancied to win Euro 2020 than Germany before the action got under way.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]