Spain vs Poland Euro 2020 Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips

  • Spain got off to a stuttering start in Seville with a 0-0 tie against Sweden
  • Poland were beaten in their first game and will be on the brink with another loss
  • Goals could be at a premium when these teams lock horns on Saturday

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Euro 2020 Spain vs Poland Odds

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Total Goals Odds
Under 2.5 Goals +110
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Over 2.5 Goals -132
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Spain vs Poland Pick

Our Pick
Back under 2.5 goals when Spain and Poland go head-to-head.
The best odds for this match Odds provided by DraftKings
Under 2.5 Goals (+110) Bet Now

How to Watch Euro 2020 Spain vs Poland

Spain vs Poland Information
Teams Spain vs Poland
Location Estadio La Cartuja, Seville, Spain
Time Thursday, 19 June 2021, 15.00 PM EDT
How to watch ESPN

Spain Look to Have Issues With Putting the Ball in the Net

The Spain national team was once known as La Furia Roja, but we do not hear much about the Red Fury these days.

Previously renowned for aggression and underachievement, Spain became one of the most successful sides of all time when they won Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup, and Euro 2012.

Their triumphs came with a technically gifted side that had an obsession with possession, and Spain were celebrated as being at the vanguard of the global game.

That possession style remains intact 13 years on from their maiden European Championship success. But while Spain had David Villa and Fernando Torres to call upon for goals in 2008, their options in 2021 are markedly inferior.

Spain have had problems putting the ball in the back of the net for some time now, and Alvaro Morata – the man chosen to lead the line against Sweden in Spain’s first game of Euro 2020 – did not exactly send punters rushing to bet on him winning the Golden Boot this summer.

Even when they were lifting trophies every other year, Spain were not a free-scoring side. That was in large part because of their opponents’ tactics, with teams tending to sit extremely deep against them.

Back then one goal was usually enough for Spain to win a game. That would also have been the case against Sweden last time out, but Luis Enrique’s side could not find it. Spain had no problems keeping possession in Monday’s 0-0 draw, but they did not do enough useful things with it.

That is an issue for Luis Enrique, who might respond by dropping Morata and fielding Gerard Moreno up top against Poland.

This is not just about an individual center-forward, though. Even if Spain do well this summer, it will probably not be because they scored a ton of goals. Their toothlessness should give Poland cause for optimism here.

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Poland Shocked by Slovakia and Now Under Pressure

Having said that, there is also much for Paulo Sousa’s side to improve upon.

Facing supposedly the weakest team in Group E, Poland would have expected to get off to a winning start against Slovakia. Instead, they suffered a 2-1 defeat that has put them in a precarious position: defeat here would leave their chances of a place in the last 16 hanging by a thread.

Poland were disappointing in their first outing of the tournament. It is true that Wojciech Szczesny should have saved the opening goal – it was ultimately credited to the Poland goalkeeper as an own goal – but that was not the only chance Slovakia created. Ondrej Duda and Marek Hamsik were excellent in the first half in particular, and Poland could easily have gone into the break two or three goals behind.

Karol Linetty equalized immediately after half-time, but Poland then proceeded to shoot themselves in the foot.

Grzegorz Krychowiak’s red card just after the hour mark swung the pendulum back in Slovakia’s direction, and the excellent Milan Skriniar converted what proved to be the winner soon after.

Piotr Zielinski showed flashes of quality in Monday’s match, but Robert Lewandowski was quiet upfront. Poland simply have to supply their best player with better chances against Spain, although getting enough of the ball to do so could prove difficult.

Poland are up against it in their bid to qualify for the knockout phase of the European Championship for only the second time.

A Game of Few Goals Looks Set to Be Played Out Here

There are two reasons why a high-scoring game is unlikely.

The first is tactical. Spain will again focus on dominating possession as a means of controlling the match and keeping Poland at arm’s length.

They will need to show more of a clinical edge in the final third than they did against Sweden, but the overall approach will be similar. We are not about to see Luis Enrique’s side go hell for leather and adopt an open, direct approach.

Poland also struggled to create meaningful opportunities in their first outing of the competition. Playing a more back-foot, counter-attacking game could actually suit them, but Paulo Sousa’s side will need to have enough possession to carve out chances. That is easier said than done against a team as technically gifted as Spain.

The second reason is the wider circumstances. Having failed to emerge victorious on Monday, neither team can afford to lose this game.

Defeat would perhaps not be fatal to Spain’s chances of progression, but it would certainly not bode well for the rest of the tournament. This is no time for risk-taking, and the upshot looks likely to be a game featuring fewer than 2.5 goals.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]