Toluca vs Cruz Azul Prediction, Betting Odds & Picks

  • Throughout the season, Cruz Azul have been able to maintain their attacking dominance
  • Toluca are far from dependable when it comes to their defense
  • Keeping in mind that they recently fired their manager, Toluca are about to embark on a rebuilding stage for the club

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Toluca vs Cruz Azul Odds

Team Match Winner
Toluca +300
Tie +250
Cruz Azul -112

Toluca vs Cruz Azul Predictions and Picks

Cruz Azul is the easy favorites here. Although it’s tempting to consider a tie or win for Toluca, there has been nothing in recent weeks that suggest that Los Diablos Rojos will be ending their winless streak in the near future — especially against Cruz Azul.


Cruz Azul for the win -112

How to Watch Toluca vs Cruz Azul

Toluca vs Cruz Azul Information
What Toluca vs Cruz Azul
Where Estadio Nemesio Diez (Toluca, Mexico)
When Sunday, October 4th at 1:00 PM ET
How to Watch Univision, TUDN

There was once a time earlier in the season in which many Liga MX fans and media were left scratching their heads about Toluca. Key players had left over the summer, a fairly average manager (at best) was at the helm and a number of older players had to be relied on.

In what should have been a recipe for disaster, Toluca instead kicked things off with four wins in their first six matches of the tournament. Despite the fact that they were allowing far too many goals, their aggressive and risk-taking attack appeared to compensate for the defense with a small handful of high-scoring results that worked in the favor of Toluca.

Those days are now long gone.

Perhaps due to a playing style that asked for far too much of their attack in every match, Toluca quickly began to run out of energy. In their last six games, they’ve only collected a total of four goals in their two draws and four losses. A dark horse just a little over a month ago, Toluca are now mid-table fodder, just another team in a mix of squads that have yet to be convincing for long periods of time.

Cruz Azul, on the other hand, have been near-perfect. 26 points from 12 games put them just one spot below first place after the results from last week. Undefeated in their last four, Los Cementeros should be able to stretch that streak to five after this weekend.

Cruz Azul Have Yet To Slow Down Their Chance Creation

Here’s some Liga MX trivia: Which team ranks #1 in the league when it comes to xG (expected goals) and shots per 90 minutes?

If you guessed Cruz Azul, you are also probably guessing that they should be able to continue this kind of form this weekend. Blessed with attacking names such as Santiago Gimenez, Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez, Luis Romo, Elias Hernandez, Orbelin Pineda and more, there’s rarely a game in which they struggle to create chances for themselves in the final third.

They’ll have opportunities, and against a team like Toluca, they might even have more goalscoring chances than usual.

Toluca’s Defense Is Incredibly Untrustworthy

Glancing at the previous six games for all Liga MX teams, only Queretaro and San Luis have allowed more goals than Toluca.

Sure, they held Pachuca scoreless in a 0-0 draw last week, but we also shouldn’t forget the 4-1 loss to Puebla in September and the 4-1 loss to Queretaro last month. Eager to push forward and create chances, Toluca at times look lost defensively as they’ve had serious difficulties with stopping the opposition.

Which is why they are currently searching for a new manager.

After failing to impress in the latest draw with Pachuca, Jose Manuel “Chepo” de la Torre was dropped from his coaching position. A vacancy is now left, along with plenty of questions regarding Toluca.

A Rebuild Stage Has Begun For Toluca

Defensive issues, a lack of wins, and now the firing of a manager. There’s a reason why FiveThirtyEight is only giving Toluca a 27% chance of a win…at home.

Realistically speaking, the firing of their manager could be an obvious sign of Toluca ownership calling it quits this season. Even though there is still a chance for them to qualify for the playoffs, looking ahead, what matters more is a new era in which they will need some time to rebuild.

New ideas need to be implemented, along with younger faces in their aging roster.

As 10-time winners of the league title, they are fully capable of reviving themselves and finding more wins. But as for this weekend? It’s too early to assume that their problems will be fixed in just a matter of days.

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Cesar Hernandez

Expert on Soccer

Freelance writer Cesar Hernandez is a specialist in all things American and Mexican soccer. He has written for ESPN FC, The Athletic, The Guardian, FourFourTwo, VICE Sports and several other publications. Along with writing and previous radio appearances on the BBC, talkSPORT and SiriusXM FC, Cesar is also a member of the Mexican Soccer Show podcast. Email: [email protected]