Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions, Odds & Picks (September 30)

• Rays look to punch their ticket to ALDS
• Blue Jays ace looks to keep season alive
• Which offense can show up?

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Blue Jays vs Rays Odds

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Blue Jays vs Rays Predictions and Picks

Both Ryu and Glasnow are capable of shutting down any offense in baseball. Neither offense is clicking so we’re expecting a low scoring game. In the end, Tampa Bay is extremely difficult to defeat at home, so we’re taking the Rays money line and the under.

Picks:

Rays for the win -143

Under 7 -110

Betting record through 9/29/20 (36-36-1)

Trends

Blue Jays are 4-2 in last six v. AL East

Over is 3-2-1 in last six meetings in Tampa Bay

Blue Jays are 39-84 in last 123 meetings in Tampa Bay

Over is 7-3 in Blue Jays last 10 road games

Over is 5-3 in Blue Jays last eight overall

Over is 8-3 in Blue Jays last 11 vs AL East

Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six playoff games

Rays are 41-13 in last 54 home games

Rays are 37-15 in last 52 overall

Rays are 2-7 in their last nine playoff games as a favorite

Under is 14-3 in Rays last 17 playoff home games

Under is 5-1 in Rays last six games on Astroturf

How to Watch Blue Jays vs Rays

Can Glasnow Propel Rays?

If the regular season is any indication, the Rays should feel great about their chances going into Game 2 of their wild card matchup against the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay went 9-2 in Glasnow’s 11 starts including 8-0 in his last eight starts.

Glasnow went 5-1 on the year, with a 4.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP – good numbers, but not dominant. However, he was much better in his last seven starts, giving up three or fewer earned runs in six of them, striking out seven in each game and pitching into the sixth inning in each contest – dropping his ERA from 7.04 to 4.08.

Glasnow has yet to face Toronto in 2020.

Can Hyun-Jin Ryu Keep Season Alive?

This is what Hyun-Jin Ryu was brought to Toronto to do. The NL Cy Young runner-up from 2019 was brought to Toronto to be the ace and now that he’s on full rest, he will need to do just that against the best team in the American League.

Ryu ranked in the top 21 in almost every major category including a 5-2 record, 2.69 ERA (8th), 1.15 WHIP (20th) and 72 strikeouts (21st). The Blue Jays were at their best with Ryu on the mound, going 9-3 in his 12 starts and 8-2 in his last 10. In the 10 starts he had in August and September, Ryu gave up one run or fewer on eight occasions and only once gave up more than two earned runs.

Ryu faced Tampa Bay twice this year, going 1-0, giving up four earned runs in 9.2 innings.

Ryu has a spotty playoff record with is the team going 3-2 in his last five postseason starts dating back to 2018. His best start came in the NLDS against Atlanta in 2018, when he threw seven innings of shutout baseball. His worst start came two weeks later, when he picked up the loss in the NLCS, giving up five earned runs in three innings against the Brewers.

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Who Has the Offensive Edge?

Each team has a legitimate ace on the mound. So who has the edge offensively? Based on the regular season, it’s Toronto, but it’s close. The Blue Jays finished seventh in runs scored (302), ninth in slugging percentage (.441), 12th in batting average (.255) and 13th in on-base percentage (.325).

Tampa Bay ranked 12th, 15th, 21st and 11th in those categories respectively. The Rays went 6-4 in the head-to-head matchup this year, although Toronto outscored Tampa Bay 42-40.

Nobody really showed up offensively on Tuesday, with the biggest hit of the night – a two-run home run that proved to be the difference — coming from Manuel Margot, who had just one home run and 11 RBI in 60 games in the regular season.

The man to watch for the Rays is Brandon Lowe. Lowe led the Rays in batting average (.269), home runs (14), RBIs (37), OBP (.362) and total hits (52).

For Toronto, there’s a number of players who could lead the way, but the likely leading candidate for the Blue Jays would be Randal Grichuck or Vladamir Guerrero Jr. Grischuk hit .328 against lefties this season, while five of Guererro Jr.’s nine home runs came off of southpaws this season.