Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals (NL Wild Card) Predictions & Odds at NJ Sportsbooks

MLBMilwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals (NL Wild Card) Predictions & Odds at NJ Sportsbooks

Derek Blake - September 30, 2019

Prediction Final Score: Milwaukee 5, Washington 3

Derek Blake

How to Watch Brewers vs Nationals

Where: Nationals Park, Washington D.C.

When: Tuesday, October 1st at 8:08 PM EST

How (TV/Radio): National TV: TBS. Brewers TV/Radio: Fox Sports Wisconsin, WTMJ 103.3 FM. Nationals TV/Radio: MASN, WJFK/106.7 FM.

Team Notes

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers were the darlings of baseball in September, putting the crushing year-ending injury to 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich behind them on the way to a 20-6 record over the season’s final month.

According to baseball-reference.com, the Brewers currently have 2.5% to win the World Series, due primarily to their place as the visitor in the Wild Card Game.

Fangraphs likes the Brewers’ World Series chances even less than Baseball-Reference as their algorithm gives Milwaukee a 1.2% chance to take the WS title.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals rebounded from a 19-31 start to make the playoffs while securing the home-field for the NL Wild Card Game.

Washington has a 9.7% chance to win the World Series title according to Baseball-Reference.

Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 5.0% chance to take the World Series crown according to their latest projections.

Pitcher Notes

Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA)

Woodruff last pitched against the Nationals on May 8th. He threw 6 innings, allowing one earned run while striking out nine.

Woodruff threw twice in September, never going more than two innings, so don’t expect Woodruff to go more than three innings on Tuesday night.
The right-hander has thrown just 19.2 innings since July 4th due to injury.
The Brewers went 18-4 in Woodruff’s starts this season.

Nationals: Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA)

Scherzer has struggled since returning from nagging back and shoulder injuries, posting an unimpressive ERA of 4.73 since returning full time on August 22nd.

In Scherzer’s last start, he went 6 innings, allowing four earned runs while striking out 10 Phillies in a 6-5 win.
The Nats’ righty has allowed four homers in his last two outings.
Scherzer threw 29.2 innings in September, posting a 5.16 ERA while striking out 43 hitters.

Hitter Notes

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has struggled against Scherzer with several Brewers such as Ryan Braun (0 for 14) and Lorenzo Cain (0 for 15) going hitless against the fireballing ace in their career.

3B Mike Moustakas is 6 for 36 versus Scherzer with one homer and four RBI.
1B Eric Thames is 3 for 9 against the Nationals’ ace with two doubles and two RBI.
C Yasmani Grandal is 1 for 33 versus Scherzer with seven strikeouts.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals have limited exposure to Woodruff but Washington was 4th in MLB and 2nd in the National League in runs scored at home with 5.56 per game.

OF Adam Eaton is 1 for 6 against Woodruff with three strikeouts.
SS Trea Turner is 1 for 6 against the Brewers’ righty with one strikeout.
3B Anthony Rendon is 1 for 9 versus Woodruff with a single and two strikeouts.

Roster Notes

Milwaukee Brewers

Expect 1B Eric Thames to find a spot in the starting lineup as Brewers Manager Craig Counsel attempts to stuff the lineup with lefties to face the right-handed Scherzer.
1B Ryan Braun hurt his calf over the weekend against the Rockies and might have to miss the Wild Card game.
OF Lorenzo Cain sprained his ankle at Colorado last weekend and should be a game-time decision.

Washington Nationals

SP Patrick Corbin will be available in the bullpen for the Wild Card game.
After catching well this weekend, expect Kurt Suzuki to get a spot on the Wild Card roster.
Manager Dave Martinez has hinted that he will stack his bench with hitters in anticipation of facing the Brewers bullpen over multiple innings.

Game Prediction Brewers vs Nationals

Both teams are on fire headed into the winner-take-all game as the Nationals have won eight straight while the Brewers won 20 of their last 26 to reach the postseason.

If the Brewers can get to Scherzer early via the home run, then Washington could be in for a long night as the Milwaukee bullpen is deadly. Regardless of the score, expect Brewers closer Josh Hader and lefty specialist Drew Pomeranz to go two innings each in relief.

Washington can pile on the runs at home but the Brewers’ pitching staff could keep the Nationals on their heels with strategic changes and specialized matchups throughout the game.

For the Nationals to move on, Scherzer will have to stop his recent home run woes and shut down the slugging lefties of the Brewers’ lineup. Watch early at-bats from Eric Thames and Mike Moustakas to see if Scherzer is hitting his spots and keeping the quality contact down.

In the end, it won’t be enough as the Brewers are primed to pull off the upset.