ALDS Game 3 - New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins: Predictions, Odds and Roster Notes

Game Prediction: Final score Yankees 7, Twins 3.

How to Watch New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota

When: Monday, October 7th at 8:40 PM EST

How (TV/Radio): National TV: FS1, Twins TV/Radio: FS North, WCCO 830 AM. Yankees TV/Radio: YES, WFAN 101.9FM.

Team Notes

New York Yankees

The Yankees were savages in the box in the opening two games of the ALCS, scoring 18 runs on their way to two dominant wins over the Twins.

The Yankees have a 20.4% shot according to Fangraphs and are -2000 to win the ALDS versus the Twins according to 888sport.

The Yankees are +140 to win the AL title and +320 to win the 2019 World Series.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins lost Game 1 and 2 of the ALDS by the combined score of 18-6. They’ll need three straight wins to move on to the ALCS.

The Twins have dropped to a 1.0% probability to win the World Series according to Fangraphs and are +1000 to win according to 888sport due to their opening two losses in the series.

The Twins are +6000 to win the World Series and +2500 to win the American League.

Pitcher Notes

New York Yankees: Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA)

The last time that Severino faced the Twins in the playoffs, the 2017 AL Wild Card Game, the righty allowed three runs in a one-third inning. The Yankees went on to come back and win the game 8-4.

  • In his last full start of the season at Texas, Severino went three innings, allowing two earned runs.
  • Over Severino’s first two starts, the righty allowed just five hits in nine scoreless innings.
  • Severino only pitched 12 innings in 2019 after suffering a lat muscle injury during spring training.

Twins: Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA)

The Twins manager, Rocco Baldelli, started Randy Dobrak in Game 2, passing over Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson. Dobrak allowed four runs in two innings in the Game 2 start.

  • In his last start, Odorizzi held Detroit to one run over six innings, while posting seven strikeouts.
  • Odorizzi did hold the Yankees scoreless at Yankee Stadium in early May over six innings.
  • Only three of Odorizzi’s last nine starts were classified as quality starts, so don’t expect the Twins’ righty to go deep into the game Monday night.

Hitter Notes

New York Yankees

D.J. LeMahieu is 4 for 9 over the first two ALDS games with four runs, two doubles, and one homer.

  • 1B Edwin Encarnacion is 8 for 43 versus Odorizzi with two homers and eight RBI.
  • SS Didi Gregorius is 4 for 25 with one double and one triple against Odorizzi.
  • OF Brett Gardner is 6 for 32 against Odorizzi with one homer and three RBI in his career.

Minnesota Twins

DH Nelson Cruz went 2 for 6 in the first two ALDS games, with a solo homer and two runs scored.

  • OF Eddie Rosario is 0 for 4 versus Severino with one strikeout.
  • OF Max Kepler is 1 for 3 against Severino with one double and one RBI.
  • DH Nelson Cruz is 4 for 8 with one double against the Yankees’ right-handed starter.

Roster Notes

New York Yankees

  • Teams that go up 2-0 in a division series win the series 88% of the time.
  • C Gary Sanchez took extra practice fielding wild pitches that bounce off the brick wall behind home plate at Target Field.
  • SS Didi Gregorius was the star of Game 2 with a grand slam in the seven-run 3rd inning.

Minnesota Twins

  • The Twins have lost their last 15 playoff games, the longest losing streak in postseason history. 12 of those 15 losses have come against the Yankees.
  • 2B Luis Arraez showed no ill-effects of his sprained ankle as he doubled twice in Game 2.
  • SP Kyle Gibson could start a Game 4 if the Twins stave off elimination.

Game Predictions Yankees vs Twins

I don’t expect the fireworks of Games 1 and 2 to carry over to Target Field. Although the Twins did set an MLB record in total homers for a full 162-game season, only 137 of their 307 total homers came at Target Field.

The opposite side to that coin is that the Yankees were one of the best scoring teams on the road, leading the MLB with 6.21 runs per contest away from Yankee Stadium.

I don’t expect Severino or Odorizzi to go more than five innings, but the difference is that the Yankees will go to their well-rested and very talented bullpen, while the Twins will scramble to stop the bleeding that saw the Minnesota staff gouged for 18 runs over the first two games.

The Yankees are on a roll and it won’t stop on Monday night as New York gets a few timely hits and we watch as their bullpen shuts down the Twins potent lineup on their way to an ALDS sweep.

Game Prediction: Final score Yankees 7, Twins 3.

Game Odds – New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

The latest odds for the ALDS game between the Yankees and the Twins are provided by New Jersey sportsbooks.

Good luck!


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