New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions, Odds & Picks (October 5)
- Can Rays continue to dominate the series?
- Will Gerrit Cole continue his hot stretch?
- Why the long ball will determine this one
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Yankees vs Rays Odds
|Team||Run Spread||Total||Money Line|
|New York Yankees||-1.5 +112||O 7 -112||-152|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1.5 -134||U 7 -108||+130|
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Yankees vs Rays Predictions and Picks
It’s hard to pick the Rays outright, but the way they’ve played the Yankees, New York shouldn’t run away with this, even with the starting pitching edge. We like the Rays with the spread.
Rays with the spread +1.5 -134
Betting record through 10/4/20 (39-37-1)
Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 playoff games as a favorite
Yankees are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a win
Yankees are 14-6 in their last 20 overall
Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff games
Yankees are 76-37 in their last 113 games vs American League East
Over is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 during game one of a series
Over is 8-2 in Yankees last 10 games following an off day
Over is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 vs. team with a winning record
Rays are 7-1 in last eight meetings head to head
Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings when Rays are home team
Rays are 10-2 in their last 12 games as an underdog
Rays are 4-1 in their last five playoff games
Under is 6-0 in Rays last six games as an underdog
Under is 10-2 in Rays last 12 games vs. right-handed starter
Under is 7-2 in Rays last nine games following a win
How to Watch Yankees vs Rays
|Yankees vs Rays Information|
|What||New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays|
|Where||Petco Park, San Diego, CA|
|When||Monday, October 5, 2020, 8:07 PM EST|
|How to Watch||TBS|
Rays Look to Pick up Where They Left Off
The Rays easily won the AL East this year and their dominance over the Yankees was the main reason why. Tampa Bay won all three series this year and went 8-2 in 10 total matchups, outscoring the Bronx Bombers 47-34 in the process.
However, it should be noted the majority of those games came when the Yankees were without Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. These teams have had bad blood for years, with multiple benches-clearing altercations and what have appeared to be intentional pitches at batters as recently as early September, when Aroldis Chapman came up and in on Mike Brosseau with a 100+ mph fastball.
The Rays not only dominated the regular-season series but come into the ALDS on a tear, going 9-2 in their past 11, nearly doubling up their opponents 57-32 during those games.
The Rays were almost that good in games Snell started this year, too, going 8-4 in his 12 appearances counting the postseason. Snell went 4-2 in the regular season, with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His only issue this season has been his inability to go late into games. Snell went between 5-5.2 innings pitched each of his last nine outings and is yet to go six innings or more the entire year.
However, he seems to be on his game now, having gone 5.2 innings, giving up just one hit and two walks while striking out nine in a 3-1 win over the Blue Jays in the Wild Card matchup.
Cole on Another Level
Gerrit Cole has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last four weeks and doesn’t seem to be slowing up. Cole has gone exactly seven innings in each of his last four starts, giving up just four earned runs in that span while striking out 37 and walking just three.
Cole faced the Rays three times in the regular season but didn’t have much success. He went 0-1, but the team went 1-2. Cole pitched just 16.1 combined innings, giving up nine earned runs.
However, he’s been a different pitcher of late, including his last start when he beat the soon-to-be Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber in game one of the Wild Card series. Cole frequently seems to save his best for the postseason, going 7-4 in his 11 starts in the playoffs to this point.
He has been nothing short of flawless in his three ALDS starts to this point: 3-0, going 22.2 combined innings, giving up just nine hits, three walks and only two runs while striking out 37.
Long Ball and the Strikeout
The “two-strike swing” is a thing of the past in today’s modern game. No team exemplifies that more than the Yankees. New York’s success all season has been predicated on its ability to hit the long ball, which will likely be the difference in this series one way or the other.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, 156 of the Yankees 315 total runs so far this year came on home runs (49.5 percent). That trend continued in the Wild Card series, with the Bronx Bombers scoring 13 of their 22 runs via the long ball.
Tampa Bay ranked in the top half of baseball, giving up just 1.34 home runs per game, while the Yankees were third in baseball with 1.63 home runs per game. Luke Voit led baseball in home runs, while Judge and Stanton both have 50+ home run per season power.
Sometimes the game can be difficult to predict, but other times it can be simple. If the Yankees don’t hit a home run in game one, they’re likely to lose. If they hit multiple, they’ll likely win. Sounds obvious, but that’s more true for New York – who struggled to manufacture runs all year – more than almost any other team.
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Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.