Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions, Odds & Picks (October 20)
- How we got here
- Two aces with something to prove
- Player to watch on each side
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Rays vs Dodgers Odds
|Team||Run Spread||Total||Money Line|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1.5 -148||O 8 -105||+145|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||-1.5 +123||U 8 -117||-175|
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Rays vs Dodgers Predictions and Picks
It feels like the third time might be the charm for the Dodgers. They come in with a ton of momentum and have the lineup to outslug an opponent in any game. However, Tampa Bay always wins close. The Rays have the best bullpen in and have hit enough home runs to continue to win all baseball postseason. We like the Rays against the spread and the over in this one.
Betting record through 10/18/20 (48-45-1)
Rays are 4-0 in last four interleague games
Rays are 9-2 in last 11 games following an off day
Rays are 4-1 in last five interleague games as an underdog
Rays are 10-4 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter
Rays are 1-4 in their last (only) five World Series games
Rays are 12-4 in their last 16 games as an underdog
Under is 5-0 in Rays last five games following a win
Under is 6-0 in Rays last six interleague games as an underdog
Under is 8-1 in Rays last nine playoff games
Over is 7-1 in Rays last eight interleague games vs a left-handed starter
Under is 5-1 in Rays last six vs a team with a winning record
Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings
Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs a right-handed starter
Dodgers are 4-1 in their last five playoff games as a favorite
Dodgers are 23-8 in their last 31 interleague games
Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last four games following an off day
Under is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 games following a win
How to Watch Rays vs Dodgers
|Rays vs Dodgers Information|
|What||Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers|
|Where||Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX|
|When||Tuesday, October 20, 2020, 8:09 PM EST|
|How to Watch||FOX|
How We Got Here
We very well could have had neither of these teams in the World Series. The Rays watched a 3-0 lead in the ALCS against Houston evaporate before coming together in a clutch game seven performance to win the American League pennant.
The Rays made their way to the World Series with the long ball, as 71.9 percent of their postseason runs have come from the home run, a postseason record. The vast majority of those home runs (seven) came from Randy Arozarena, who became the first rookie position player to win ALCS MVP in baseball history.
It’s fortunate for Tampa Bay that it’s hitting so many home runs because that’s all it’s hitting. The Rays have hit below .230 as a team for nine straight games – the previous record was seven games.
The Dodgers were in the other boat: down 3-1 in the series to Atlanta and then 2-0 in game seven before a series of clutch hits – none bigger than Cody Bellinger’s moon shot in the seventh inning – to hold on for the 4-3 victory, both in the game and the series.
Bellinger was the hero of game seven, but without question, Corey Seager was the man who saved the series for Los Angeles. Seager belted five home runs and drove in 11 runs, while hitting .310 with a .333 OBP and 1.230 OPS.
The Rays were the top seed in the AL and the Dodgers the top seed in the National League. The Rays paid their players a prorated salary of $28 million. The Dodgers paid Mookie Betts and Clayton Kershaw a prorated salary of $26.8 million.
Despite the Rays playing for the same amount as the top two players on the Dodgers, both squads have an equal chance in this series.
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Kershaw vs Glasnow
Kershaw has another chance. Another chance to prove he isn’t an October choke artist. A chance to show us that he is exactly who we think he is from April to September: one of the two best pitchers of this generation.
It feels like he’s had more chances than almost anybody. In his career, he’s appeared in 35 postseason games and made 28 starts. He’s 11-12 overall with a 4.31 ERA in 177.1 innings. For comparison, Kershaw has never had an ERA above 3.03 in his 12 full seasons as a major league pitcher. In his lone NLCS start this year, he went five innings, giving up four earned runs on seven hits and striking out just four.
In his last two world series appearances, Kershaw is 1-2 in five appearances, throwing 26.2 innings and giving up 16 earned runs for a 5.54 ERA. If the Dodgers hadn’t survived the NLCS – fair or not – Kershaw would have shouldered a lot of the blame. He has to win a World Series game to help his legacy.
Tyler Glasnow has made just six postseason starts in his career, but he hasn’t fared much better.
The pitcher with the best “stuff” on the Rays is 2-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 26.1 innings. Glasnow lost his last start, going six innings and giving up four earned runs on eight hits, so there’s a fair bit of pressure on him as well.
Players to Watch
Who are the most likely candidates to have big games offensively? The only trick to this is, in this exercise we can’t pick the hottest hitters – so no Mookie Betts or Corey Seager for the Dodgers and no Arozarena for the Rays.
On Tampa Bay’s side, either Brandon Lowe or Mike Brosseau are good candidates as both had good stats against left-handed pitchers this year. Lowe had a .417 OBP in 50 at bats this year, with a team-high 15 hits, six home runs and nine RBI. Brosseau wasn’t far behind, hitting .333 with a .383 OBP in 42 at-bats, belting four home runs and 10 RBI.
For Los Angeles, we like Justin Turner. Turner is known for his clutch hitting, batting .333 with a .385 OBP in the 2018 World Series. Turner gives depth to the middle of this lineup and can change the game with one swing of the bat.
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Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.