YellaWood 500 Predictions: If You Trust the Oddsmakers, We Have an Interesting Proposition

  • This race provides a lesson in the quality of professional handicapping.
  • Speaking of handicappers, why are they ignoring the defending race winner?
  • Chances are the Talladega winner will be driving a Ford Mustang—as usual.

YellaWood 500 Betting Odds

Odds taken from BetMGM. Sign up and get a $1000 Risk-Free Bet!

Winner Odds
Kyle Larson +1200
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Joey Logano +1200
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Denny Hamlin +1200
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Chase Elliott +1200
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William Byron +1200
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Ryan Blaney +1200
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Austin Cindric +1500
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Tyler Reddick +1500
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Ross Chastain +1500
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Kyle Busch +1800
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Bubba Wallace +1800
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Our Picks for the YellaWood 500

Joey Logano to win the race at +1200

Bubba Wallace to finish in the top three at +550

Brad Keselowski to beat Daniel Suarez head-to-head at -110

YellaWood 500 Predictions

YellaWood 500 Predictions

If You Trust the Oddsmakers, We Have an Interesting Proposition

There’s so much uncertainty in the vicissitudes of superspeedway racing that even professional handicappers have trouble making up their minds.

Take a look at the board for Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at Talladega. The top six choices—Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Ryan Blaney—all are posted at +1200 via BetMGM.

That’s one-sixth of the entire field. So if you trust the oddsmakers to get the race winner right out of their top six picks, bet on all of them.

That’s a 2-to-1 return on your money if they’re correct. (Disclaimer: we prefer to be more specific.)

Bubba Wallace Is the Defending Winner, So Ignore Him at Your Own Risk

Bubba Wallace has earned his well-deserved reputation as an elite superspeedway racer. The driver of the 23XI Racing Toyota picked up his first NASCAR Cup victory last year at Talladega.

Four of Wallace’s 11 career top-five finishes have come at Daytona International Speedway, Talladega’s sister track, and three of those were runner-up results.

While we don’t think Wallace will win Sunday’s YellaWood 500, we do think he’s an excellent bet to finish in the top three at +550 via BetMGM.

Bet on YellaWood 500 at BetMGM and get $1000 Risk-Free Bet!

Recent Results Say a Ford Mustang Will Be in Victory Lane at Talladega

Ford drivers have won 10 of the last 14 races at Talladega Superspeedway, and eight of those victories have come in Mustangs fielded by Team Penske.

Before he moved to a new role as owner-driver at Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Brad Keselowski scored six Talladega wins from 2009 to 2021, five with Penske and four in Fords.

Penske driver Joey Logano has three victories at the track, and teammate Ryan Blaney went back-to-back in the fall race of 2019 and the spring race of 2020.

Logano climbed to the top of the Cup Playoff standings with a second-place run last Sunday at Texas, and he’s our pick to advance to the Playoff’s Round of 8 with a victory at Talladega.

Like the rest of the co-favorites, he’s posted at +1200. To us, that’s a golden ticket.

And because of his record at the track, we like Keselowski to top Daniel Suarez head-to-head at -110.

How to Watch the YellaWood 500

Race YellaWood 500 NASCAR Cup Series race
Location Talladega Superspeedway
Time Sunday, October 2, 2 p.m. ET
How to Watch NBC

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Reid Spencer

Expert on NASCAR

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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