Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks (Game 5): Predictions, Odds and Betting Lines

How to Watch

What: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI

When: Thursday, May 23rd at 8:30 PM EST

How (TV): TNT

Series Standing: 2-2

Game 4 Recap:

Toronto Raptors (Away)

Head Coach: Nick Nurse {All-Time 58-24 | TOR}

Season Record: 58-24, 2nd in the East

Projected Starting Five: (G) Kyle Lowry – (G) Danny Green – (F) Kawhi Leonard – (F) Pascal Siakam – (C) Marc Gasol

Top Performers:

  • (F) Kawhi Leonard – 26.7 PPG | 7.3 RPG | 1.8 SPG
  • (F) Pascal Siakam – 17.0 PPG | 6.9 RPG | .368 3P%
  • (G) Kyle Lowry – 14.2 PPG | 8.7 APG | 1.4 SPG

The Toronto Raptors looked like the focused, veteran team that they are in Game 4. With their backs against the wall, they executed in Game 4 to blow out the Bucks and even the series.

Most of the Raptors issues in the preceding three matches were nowhere to be found when they defeated the Bucks in Game 4. Their starters performed, their reserves contributed, and they locked up Antetokounmpo.

The Raptors are back in hostile territory for Game 5 in Milwaukee. They performed well for one out of the last two games on the road, but they’ll need to channel their home energy if they hope to take a win.

Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Head Coach: Mike Budenholzer {All-Time 60-22 | MIL}

Season Record: 60-22, 1st in the East

Projected Starting Five: (G) Eric Bledsoe – (F) Nikola Mirotic – (F) Khris Middleton – (F) Giannis Antetokounmpo – (C) Brook Lopez

Top Performers:

  • F Giannis Antetokounmpo – 33.5 PPG | 15.3 RPG | 4.5 APG
  • G Eric Bledsoe – 25.0 PPG | 6.8 APG | 5.2 RPG
  • G-F Khris Middleton – 23.2 PPG | 6.7 RPG | 5.2 APG

The Milwaukee Bucks had a commanding lead going into Games 3 and 4 in Toronto and they let it slip through their hands. They were blown out in Game 4 and will need to reevaluate their plans as they return home.

The Milwaukee Bucks changed their game plan in Game 4 and it didn’t pay off. Eric Bledsoe rarely saw the court while the likes of George Hill and Malcolm Brogdon failed to impress.

Mike Budenholzer is in the hot seat going into Game 5, as his lineup adjustments did nothing to counter his opposition, Nick Nurse. They will have the benefit of home court advantage, but the momentum is in the Raptors favor.

What’s At Stake?

The Milwaukee Bucks lead the all-time regular-season series against the Toronto Raptors. In 89 regular season games, the Bucks lead the Raptors 51-38.

These two teams have met once before in the NBA Playoffs. In 2017, the Toronto Raptors defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 4-2 in an Eastern Conference First-Round Series. The Bucks are surely looking for revenge.

It’s a new series as both teams enter a 2-2 tie. It is essentially a best of three remaining, as the Milwaukee Bucks have, at most, two of the last three games at home.

The Raptors Reserves Came to Play

When everyone contributes, the Toronto Raptors are a better team. It takes the load off of their stars, who have been ailing from the burden taken on from their reserves’ lack of contributions.

Game 4 was a fantastic showcase for the Toronto Raptors. Their top three bench players, Norman Powell, Fred Vanvleet, and Serge Ibaka came into the game and dominated with their production. They were a combined average of +26 while they were on the court, higher than any other player.

Toronto Raptors (2-2) Table
 Basic Box Score Stats
StartersMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS+/-
ReservesMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS+/-
Norman Powell32:26618.333413.30823.6670553103318+29
Fred VanVleet25:0856.833331.00000 0116101013+25
Serge Ibaka24:05712.58303.000331.00049132101317+24
Team Totals2404187.4711441.3412427.88910344432951123120 
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/22/2019.

 

It wasn’t just their offense that was valuable, but their defensive contributions kept them on the court where it failed them in previous outings. Their efficiency is what will spell their starters and buoy their collective performance going forward. They’ll need that in Game 5.

The Milwaukee Bucks Need Some Balance

While the Bucks found some semblance of balance in their Game 3 effort against the Toronto Raptors, it has been missing since. The Raptors’ defense is stout, but the Bucks are not punishing them on available opportunities.

Game 5 was a wholly one-sided effort from the Milwaukee Bucks side. Middleton and Antetokounmpo scored 30 and 25 respectively, but the only other double-digit scorer was Mirotic with 11.

To say the Bucks need more from everyone is an understatement. The Raptors have challenged others to create and they have failed that task. The performance of the Bucks’ supporting players will define whether they take the lead in the series, or lose home court advantage.

Worry Over Kawhi?

It is rare that the health of a player can come into question when that player contributed 19 points, 7 rebounds, 4 steals, and was a +16 on the game. However, Kawhi Leonard was visibly hobbled throughout Game 5, despite his production.

Head Coach Nick Nurse made it clear that Kawhi Leonard is fine and healthy to play. Surely not 100%, but no player on the court is entirely healthy at this point in the season. The question lies in whether or not pushing Leonard this much is valuable, especially with his injury history.

It is certainly a matter of risk-reward when managing Leonard’s minutes. His contributions when defending Antetokounmpo are invaluable, so it is almost impossible to limit his minutes further. Keep an eye on how his health progresses – the Raptors will need to contribute collectively to make up for his concerns.

Budenholzer Must Take Some Blame

While the first two games of the series suggested that Budenholzer was a class above Nick Nurse, Games 3 and 4 have shown that Nurse is more of a threat with the clipboard than many expected.

Budenholzer took the bait in Game 4 and limited the minutes of Eric Bledsoe. While Bledsoe hasn’t been shooting the ball well, Coach Bud looked for more minutes from Hill and Brogdon in his place. Rather than benefit the team, it threw off the sides balance entirely.

The extra small lineup left them vulnerable on the glass while the glut of playmakers left apt passers camped in the corner, rather than initiating for the second unit as needed. As a whole not many Bucks produced, but Budenholzer may need to reevaluate his changes after seeing how he stifled his second unit.

Toronto Raptors Roster Notes

F OG Anunoby – 13 Apr 2019 – Out (Appendix) – Anunoby will not return until the Eastern Conference Finals at the earliest, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

G-F Patrick McCaw – 16 May 2019 – Out (Personal) – McCaw did not dress for the Raptors in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bucks.

Milwaukee Bucks Roster Notes

G Donte DiVincenzo – 26 Mar 2019 – Out For Season (Heel) – DiVincenzo is out for the rest of the season with bilateral heel bursitis in his right foot according to Malika Andrews of ESPN.

C Pau Gasol – 10 May 2019 – Out For Season (Ankle) – The Bucks announced that Gasol had surgery to repair a stress fracture in his left foot. He will miss the rest of the playoffs but is expected to be ready in time for training camp.

X-Factors: Pascal Siakam (TOR) vs Malcolm Brogdon (MIL)

Two energizers for their respective sides, Pascal Siakam and Malcolm Brogdon were invisible in Game 4. They are high-production players for their team so they will need to contribute greatly if they want to give their sides a fighting chance.

Pascal Siakam

Power Forward | 6-9, 230lb (206cm, 104kg) | New Mexico State/Cameroon | Exp. 2 Years

16.9 PPG | 3.1 APG | 6.9 RPG | 0.9 SPG | 0.7 BPG | 1.9 TOV | .549 FG% | .369 3P%

A starring member in the first two series in the NBA Playoffs, Siakam has been quiet in this series against the Milwaukee Bucks. As the series switches back to Milwaukee, Siakam needs to revert to the star he is.

He struggled with the length of the Milwaukee Bucks, one of the few teams that can match him. While he has the advantage in speed, his role as primary playmaker goes to the wayside when guarded by Antetokounmpo.

If Siakam is going to be effective in a supplementary role, he has to convert from range. He is 4-18 from three on the series, which will have to improve if they hope to take a game on the road against the Bucks.

Malcolm Brogdon

Point Guard | 6-5, 229lb (196cm, 103kg) | Virginia | Exp. 2 Years

15.6 PPG | 3.2 APG | 4.5 RPG | 0.7 SPG | 0.2 BPG | 1.4 TOV | .505 FG% | .426 3P%

Game 4 was the first match where Malcolm Brogdon failed to produce for the Bucks, since returning from injury late in the second-round. Usually, deadeye from three and a willing passer, Brogdon was ineffective in Game 4.

In Game 4 Brogdon contributed 4 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists on 2-11 shooting from the field and was 0-3 from three. The playmaker saw an increase in minutes but failed to make an impact.

Usually a steadying force, the Bucks need Brogdon if they hope to defeat the Raptors. He’s not an athletic defender, but he has shown the capacity to make an impact on the offensive end. He’ll prove his worth in Game 5.

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks Predictions and Odds

The Milwaukee Bucks let their 2-0 lead on the series slip away and they are now tied with the East’s most dangerous side. While the Raptors looked finished after a Game 2 blowout, they seem renewed and primed to beat the odds.

If you are in New Jersey you can bet on the Raptors vs Bucks game 5 with 888Sport and BetStars NJ. Here are the latest odds:

Point Spread

SportsbookTOR Raptors +7MIL Bucks -7Link
888Sport NJ-113-108
BetStars NJ-110-110

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Total Points

SportsbookOver 216Under 216Link
888Sport NJ-112-108
BetStars NJ-110-110

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Money Line

SportsbookTOR RaptorsMIL BucksLink
888Sport NJ+245-305
BetStars NJ+235-300

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER