Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 6)
My prediction for the final score is Packers 24, Lions 20.
How to Watch: Lions vs Packers
What: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
When: Monday Night Football, October 14 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
How (TV): ESPN
Latest point spread: Lions +4.5, Packers -4.5
This Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup is what football dreams are made of – two NFC North teams battling to stay atop their division, with the traveling 2-1-1 Detroit Lions having to take on the hometown 4-1 Green Bay Packers at their favorite winning hole called Lambeau Field.
The Lions, better than most football fans expected, are coming off an early bye week so they should be well rested and as healed up as possible, while the Packers are coming off a big road win in Dallas and couldn’t be any more confident going into this one.
This Black-and-Blue division clash looks to be an exciting one for national television, so we take a quick look at how both of these teams have set themselves up for Week 6.
Be sure to also check out our week 6 power rankings!
The 2-1-1 Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions, off an early bye week, have been playing good football under second-year head coach Matt Patricia and have a formidable offense capable of putting up points.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing well enough so far this season, but he isn’t blowing away anyone with his numbers (see below), completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough to place him at 18th best NFL passer this season so far.
The Lions’ defense is ranked at the bottom of the league right now, but they do have a decent secondary that should be a good matchup for the Packers’ strong-armed Aaron Rodgers and his pass-catching crew (if they’re all healthy enough to play, that is).
For more on the Lions, check out this article: Detroit Lions Biggest Offseason Moves
The 4-1-0 Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers and their improved defense under coordinator Mike Pettine are on a roll and feeling pretty good about themselves these days, just having come off a huge 34-24 win over the Cowboys in Dallas.
Aaron Jones is coming off a big game where he ran for 100+ yards and 4 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and giving the Packers’ offense something besides their fluctuating passing game to depend on this season.
Aaron Rodgers’ knee is bothering him (see below), so if he can suit up for Sunday he won’t be as mobile outside of the pocket as he typically can be, though he is not exactly known as a scrambler at his position even when he’s fully healthy.
For more on the Packers, check out this article: Green Bay Packers Biggest Offseason Moves
What’s at Stake
These two teams have met 179 total times (including 2 postseason games), with Green Bay winning 100 of those times and Detroit winning the other 79 games.
The last time these two teams played was in December of the 2018 season when the Lions shut out the Packers in Green Bay by a score of 31-0.
If the Lions win this matchup, they’ll move to 3-1-1 and stay in the NFC North mix, with all four of those teams battling to stay atop that division.
But if the Packers come out winners in this one, they’ll be 5-1-0 and continue to drift just a bit further away from the rest of the NFC North pack, with both the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings going into Week 6 with 3 wins.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 6 Lions-Packers matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Lions and the Packers next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
Detroit Lions Overall Offense
- Ranked 24th overall in 2018
- Ranked 8th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Detroit Lions have the 7th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 267.0 yards per game through the air after five weeks.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is currently ranked the T-18th most productive passer in the league having completed 88-of-144 passes for 1,122 yards and 9 touchdowns with 2 interceptions and a completion percentage of 62.4.
The Lions’ leading receiver after five weeks is Marvin Jones, who is currently 44th in the league with 18 catches for 277 yards and 1 touchdown.
Rushing attack: The Lions’ rushing attack is ranked 13th in the NFL after averaging 120.5 yards on the ground per game.
Kerryon Johnson is the Lions’ best runner and he is currently the 22nd best in the NFL with 74 carries for 251 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, averaging 3.4 yards per carry.
Detroit has scored 97 total points this season, or 24.2 per game, which is the 24th best total in the NFL.
Detroit Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: wide receiver Danny Amendola (chest) and tight end T.J. Hockenson (concussion).
Injury notes: wide receiver Jermaine Kearse (leg) has been placed on injured reserve.
Green Bay Packers Overall Offense
- Ranked 12th overall in 2018
- Ranked 25th overall in 2019
Passing attack: Green Bay has the 14th best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 244.2 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers (listed as questionable for Week 6 due to a tender knee, see below) is the 12th best passer right now after completing 113-of-180 passes for 1,307 yards and 6 touchdowns with 1 interception and a completion percentage of 62.8.
The Packers’ best receiver is currently deep threat Devante Adams (listed as questionable for Week 6 due to an injured toe, see below), who has caught 25 passes for 378 yards with 0 touchdowns in five weeks, ranked 15th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Green Bay has the 23rd ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 93.0 rushing yards per game.
Aaron Jones is the Packers’ best runner and now he is the 18th most productive in the NFL with 78 carries for 302 yards and a league-leading 8 touchdowns, averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Green Bay has scored 119 points in 2019, averaging 23.8 per game, which is the 12th highest average in the NFL right now.
Green Bay Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: quarterback Aaron Rodgers (knee), wide receivers Davante Adams (toe) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring), tight ends Mercedes Lewis (heel) and Robert Tonyan (hip) and center Cory Linsley (concussion).
Injury notes: fullback Malcolm Johnson (shoulder), wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown (ankle), tight end Jace Sternberger (ankle), offensive tackle Jason Spriggs (back), and guard Lane Taylor (biceps) have been placed on injured reserve.
At this point in the season, the Detroit Lions’ offense is working better, especially given that Rodgers’ knee is giving him grief, so the Lions have the offensive advantage on Sunday.
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Defensive Stats Comparison
Detroit Lions Overall Defense
- Ranked 10th overall in 2018
- Ranked 27th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Lions have the 29th best pass defense in 2019 so far (or fourth worst), allowing opponents to throw for 280.8 yards through the air per game.
Detroit’s defense has just 2 team picks and they have 9 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Lions are the 20th best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 124.8 yards per game.
Detroit has allowed their opponents to score 95 total points, or 23.8 per game, which is 10th lowest in the NFL.
Lions Defensive Players to Watch
Make sure to watch out for Lions defensive back Tracy Walker, who already has 36 tackles (3 for loss), 3 passes defended and an interception in 2019.
The big quarterback hunter for Detroit is outside linebacker Devon Kennard, who has 3.0 sacks so far this season on top of his 15 tackles and a recovered fumble.
Cornerback Darius Slay’s name usually comes up during a Lions game, and right now he has an interception, 4 passes defended, 7 tackles and a recovered fumble.
Lions Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: defensive tackle Mike Daniels (foot), safety Quandre Diggs (hamstring), defensive end Da’Shawn Hand (elbow), defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson (knee) and cornerbacks Amani Oruwariye (knee) and Darius Slay (hamstring).
Injury notes: defensive end Austin Bryant (arm) and defensive tackle Darius Kilgo (undisclosed) have both been placed on injured reserve.
Green Bay Packers Overall Defense
- Ranked 18th overall in 2018
- Ranked 22nd overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Packers’ defense is 14th best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 238.6 yards per matchup.
Green Bay’s defense has 7 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 15 total sacks after five weeks.
Run coverage: The Packers are 26th best (or 7th worst) against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 138.2 yards per game.
Green Bay has allowed their opponents to score 93 total points this season, or 18.6 per matchup, which is 8th fewest in the NFL.
Packers Defensive Players to Watch
The second-best tackler in the NFL right now plays for Green Bay, and that’s inside linebacker Blake Martinez, who has 55 total tackles (3 for loss), a sack and a quarterback hit in five games.
Make sure to check out the Packers’ new ‘Smith’ factor, their recently acquired linebackers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, who between them have 11.5 total sacks and 33 total tackles plus a forced fumble.
Cornerback Kevin King is dangerous in Green Bay’s secondary, already with 2 interceptions (T-4th most in the NFL) plus 8 passes defended, a sack, a forced fumble and 23 total tackles.
Packers Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: defensive end Montravius Adams (shoulder), cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring), defensive tackle Kenny Clark (calf), cornerback Kevin King (knee), cornerback Corey Lindsley (concussion), safety Darnell Savage (ankle) and cornerback Tramon Williams (back).
Injury notes: linebacker Greg Roberts (abdomen) and safety Ibraheim Campbell (knee-ACL) are both listed as PUP-R, while linebacker Curtis Bolton (knee-ACL) and safety Raven Greene (ankle) have been placed on injured reserve.
Both of these defenses are pretty banged up right now, but the Packers have a slight advantage in this one since their pass defense is better at taking away the football and putting pressure on the quarterback, which could become a big deal for Stafford’s pass-heavy Lions’ attack.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
Detroit’s punter, Sam Martin, is in his seventh NFL season, and so far in 2019 he has punted 20 times for a net average of 39.2 yards per punt, 29th best in the league.
Green Bay’s punter, J.K. Scott, is in his second NFL season, and in 2019 he has punted 29 times for a net average of 44.1 yards per punt, 9th best in the league.
Detroit’s placekicker, Matt Prater, is in his 13th NFL season (6th with the Lions).
Prater has gone 7-for-9 this season, his longest a 55-yarder, and he has missed one extra point attempt (10/11).
Green Bay’s veteran placekicker Mason Crosby, in his thirteenth season (all with the Packers), is a Super Bowl Champion and led the league in scoring in 2007.
Crosby has gone 7-for-8 this season, his longest a 42-yarder, and he has missed zero extra point attempts (14/14).
Detroit’s punt returner, cornerback Jamal Agnew, is ranked 42nd in the league in return average.
Agnew has returned 9 punts for 29 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per return, his longest for 24 yards.
Green Bay’s punt returner, rookie wide receiver Darrius Shephard, was just named the Packers’ punt returner after receiver Trevor Davis was traded to the Oakland Raiders.
So far this year, Shephard has returned 1 punt for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns, averaging no yards per return.
Special Teams Advantage
The Green Bay Packers’ special teams have been more effective this season and will have a slight advantage on Sunday.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Lions Win this Game?
Despite being the underdogs here, the Detroit Lions can absolutely win this will win if they can get their run game working against the Packers’ questionable rushing defense.
And Matthew Stafford has to continue to take care of the ball if the Lions expect their passing game to work towards a win, and what would really help him is if slot receiver Danny Amendola can play (see above).
It’s not easy to win in Lambeau Field (if you’re not from there, that is), but the Lions can do it if their defense can figure out how to kill the run and somehow cause the speedy Aaron Jones to have a horrible game in front of his hometown fans.
Why Will the Packers Win this Game?
The Green Bay Packers will win because they are at home, they are on fire under new head coach Matt LaFleur, and they are overall the better team in this matchup.
Ever since Green Bay’s run game and defense got better, the wins have not just been about Aaron Rodgers doing all the miracle work anymore, an important factor with both of the Packers’ best receivers listed as questionable for this one.
Regardless, Green Bay is a solid team on all three sides of the ball, and if the Packers’ defense continues to shine, this should be an easy notch on their ‘going to the postseason’ belt.
This Game Goes to the
Green Bay Packers by 4, they are the better team and playing at home will give them just the edge they will need in this one.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Packers 27, Lions 24.
My prediction for the final score is Packers 24, Lions 20.
Lions vs Packers: Odds
|Sportsbook||DET Lions||GB Packers|
|Sportsbook||DET Lions +3||GB Packers -3|
|Sportsbook||Over 45.5||Under 45.5|