Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 11)
This game goes to the Baltimore Ravens by 4. Final score: Ravens 27, Texans 23.
How to Watch: Texans vs Ravens
What: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
When: Sunday, November 17 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.
How (TV): CBS
Latest point spread: Texans +4.5, Ravens -4.5
This Week 11 AFC confrontation is a potential preview of playoff things to come, featuring the AFC South-leading Houston Texans led by talented third-year quarterback Deshaun Watson and the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens led by second-year phenom Lamar Jackson.
The Texans have won four of its past five games and Watson is finally healthy, playing like he did his rookie season, while the Ravens are somewhat re-inventing the game of professional football behind the speedy Jackson, who is just as dangerous on the ground as he is through the air.
The Ravens are favored by well over a field goal in this one but the Texans might have the talent to shut Baltimore’s powerful run game down, so let’s take a look at how these two AFC teams measure up against each other for their Week 11 showdown.
For more on Week 11, check out also our latest NFL Week 11 Power Rankings.
The 6-3-0 Houston Texans
The 6-3 Houston Texans are well-rested and mostly healed-up, coming off a Week 10 bye that followed their Week 9 spanking of the Jacksonville Jaguars by a score of 26-3, a game where running back Carlos Hyde carried the ball 19 times for 160 yards.
Actually, as good as the Texans’ run game is right now (4th best in the league), the real star in Houston these days is Deshaun Watson, the quarterback who is finally putting up numbers (18 touchdowns with 5 interceptions) like he did before an injury forced him to sit much of his rookie season.
The good news on defense is that Houston is tough against the run, but the bad news is they are fourth-worst against the pass, so it is fairly obvious where they have to get better if they expect to play football this upcoming January.
The 7-2-0 Baltimore Ravens
The seven-win Baltimore Ravens are coming off a big (and easy) win over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals by a score of 49-13, to where RG3 (backup quarterback Robert Griffin III) played in the fourth quarter while Jackson relaxed on the sidelines and enjoyed the win.
The Ravens have built their team around Lamar Jackson’s uncanny knack for running the ball (when he’s not rifling it down the field to Marquise “Hollywood” Brown or second-year tight end Mark Andrews), the MVP candidate recently posting his second perfect passer rating of the season while continuing to avoid all the big open field tackles that (almost) come his way.
Baltimore’s defense is an area where they could use some improvement, currently ranked overall close to the bottom half of the league (14th), however, their top-ten rush defense seems to be working, so now it’s up to the secondary to start stepping up before the postseason begins.
What’s at Stake for Texans vs Ravens?
These two conference rivals have met 10 total times (including 1 postseason game), with Houston winning 2 of those times and Baltimore winning the other 8 games.
The last time these two teams played was in November of the 2017 season when the Texans got beaten by the Ravens in Baltimore by the score of 23-16.
If the Texans win this matchup, they’ll move to 7-3-0 and stay atop the AFC South at least a game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, who both go into Week 11 with 5 wins.
But if the Ravens come out winners in this one, they’ll be 8-2-0 and their dominance of the AFC North will practically be sealed, while the next two runners up, the 5-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and 3-6 Cleveland Browns, play each other on Thursday Night Football.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 11 Texans-Ravens matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Texans and the Ravens next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
Houston Texans Overall Offense
- Ranked 15th overall in 2018
- Ranked 4th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Houston Texans have the 12th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 253.9 yards per game through the air after ten weeks.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson is currently under center in Houston and ranked the 12th most productive passer in the league having completed 212-of-302 passes for 2,432 yards and 18 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a completion percentage of 70.2.
The Texans’ leading receiver after ten weeks is DeAndre Hopkins, who is currently ranked 16th in the league among receivers with 68 catches for 665 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Texans’ rushing attack is ranked 4th in the NFL after averaging 142.8 yards on the ground per game.
Carlos Hyde is the Texans’ best runner and he is currently the 10th in the NFL with 149 carries for 704 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Houston has scored 238 total points this season, or 26.4 per game, which is the 8th best total in the NFL.
Houston Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: offensive guard Greg Mancz (concussion), wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (shoulder).
Injury notes: offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson (undisclosed) is listed as NFI, while tight ends Kahale Warring (concussion) and Jordan Thomas (cracked rib), offensive guard Senio Kelemete (wrist), running back Lamar Miller (knee – ACL), offensive tackle David Steinmetz (ankle), quarterback Joe Webb (foot) and wide receiver Isaac Whitney (wrist) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Baltimore Ravens Overall Offense
- Ranked 9th overall in 2018
- Ranked 2nd overall in 2019
Passing attack: Baltimore has the 20th best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 224.4 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the 20th most productive NFL passer after completing 168-of-255 passes for 2,036 yards and 15 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a completion percentage of 65.9.
The Ravens’ best receiver is currently tight end Mark Andrews, who has caught 44 passes for 523 yards with 5 touchdowns in ten weeks, ranked 35th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Baltimore has the best-ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 197.2 yards on the ground per game.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the Ravens’ best runner and now he is the 11th most productive in the NFL with 106 carries for 702 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
Baltimore has scored 300 points in 2019, averaging 33.3 per game, which is currently the highest scoring average in the NFL.
Baltimore Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: wide receiver Chris Moore (thumb).
Injury note: offensive guard Randin Crecelius (concussion) has been placed on injured reserve.
This is a tough one to call since both teams are effective on both sides of the ball, however right now Lamar Jackson is on fire as a runner and a passer, so the Ravens might have a slight offensive advantage over the Texans on Sunday.
Defensive Stats Comparison
Houston Texans Overall Defense
- Ranked 12th overall in 2018
- Ranked 19th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Texans have the 29th best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 277.3 yards through the air per game.
Houston’s defense has 5 team interceptions and they have 21 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Texans are the 3rd best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 84.1 yards per game.
Houston has allowed their opponents to score 191 total points, or 21.2 per game, which is the 15th least in the NFL.
Texans Defensive Players to Watch
Make sure you watch for Texans’ inside linebacker Zach Cunningham – the guy’s got 68 total tackles (5 for a loss), a sack, a pass defended, a quarterback hit and 2 fumble recoveries.
So far, the best quarterback hunter in Houston is outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, who has 5.5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, an interception, 2 passes defended, 4 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and 32 total tackles (7 for a loss).
He may be questionable for Week 11 (see below) but Texans’ free safety Tashaun Gipson is worth watching, right now with 2 interceptions (one for a 79-yard pick-six), 6 passes defended and 25 total tackles.
Texans Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: cornerbacks Bradley Roby (hamstring) and Lonnie Johnson (concussion) and safety Tashaun Gipson (back).
Injury notes: defensive end J.J. Watt (pectoral), linebacker Duke Ejiofor (Achilles), linebacker Chris Landrum (undisclosed), cornerback Phillip Gaines (ankle), defensive tackle Ira Lewis (undisclosed) have been placed on injured reserve.
Baltimore Ravens Overall Defense
- Ranked 1st overall in 2018
- Ranked 14th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Ravens’ defense is 20th best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 252.9 yards per matchup.
Baltimore’s defense has 8 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 16 total sacks after ten weeks.
Run coverage: The Ravens are 8th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 91.2 yards per game.
Baltimore has allowed its opponents to score 189 total points this season, or 21 per matchup, which is 13th fewest in the NFL.
Ravens Defensive Players to Watch
One of the league’s more active inside linebackers plays for Baltimore, Patrick Onwuasor, who right now has 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, a pass defended, a forced fumble and 41 total tackles (3 for a loss).
The Baltimore Raven most likely to get after Deshaun Watson on Sunday is outside linebacker Matt Judon, who leads his team with 4.0 sacks, plus 19 quarterback hits and 27 total tackles (8 for a loss).
The Ravens have a dangerous cornerback roaming their secondary named Marlon Humphrey, who right now has 2 interceptions, 11 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries (2 of those for touchdowns) and 33 total tackles.
Ravens Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 11: defensive tackles Daylon Mack (knee) and Michael Pierce (ankle).
Injury notes: linebackers Otaro Alaka (hamstring) and Pernell McPhee (triceps), cornerback Iman Marshall (toe), safeties Fish Smithson (undisclosed), Tony Jefferson (knee – ACL), DeShon Elliott (knee) and Brynden Trawick (elbow) and cornerback Tavon Young (neck) have all been placed on injured reserve.
They’re both effective against the run, but the Texans are a lot weaker against the pass than the Ravens are so Baltimore will have a slight defensive advantage over Houston on Sunday.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
Houston’s veteran punter, Bryan Anger, is in his eighth NFL season, brought in after the Texans cut Trevor Daniel, and so far this season he has punted 19 times for a net average of 44.9 yards per punt, best in the league right now.
Baltimore’s veteran punter, Sam Koch, is in his fourteenth NFL season (all with the Ravens) and so far he has punted 21 times this season for a net average of 41.8 yards per punt, which is currently 17th best in the league.
Houston’s Hawaiian born placekicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, just had a second-round restricted free agent tender placed on him in March.
Fairbairn is 13-for-17 this season, his longest a 52-yarder, and he missed 5 extra point attempts (23/88).
Baltimore’s placekicker, Justin Tucker, is in his eighth NFL season, all with the Ravens.
Tucker has made 17-of-17 field goals so far this season, his longest a 51 yarder, and so far, he has missed one extra point attempt (31/32).
Houston’s punt returner, wide receiver DeAndre Carter, is ranked 14th in punt return average this season.
Carter has returned 14 punts for 124 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 8.9 yards per return, his longest for 23 yards.
Baltimore’s punt returner, cornerback Cyrus Jones, is ranked 11th in average punt return yardage this season.
Jones has returned 12 punts for 113 yards, averaging 9.4 yards per return.
Special Teams Advantage
Houston has a better punter than Baltimore does, but the Ravens have Justin Tucker, who is perfect in field goals and who has only missed one extra point attempt, a huge special teams advantage over the Texans’ shaky Fairbairn.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Texans Win this Game?
The Houston Texans will beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday because they are terrific against the run and they will force Jackson and the Ravens to switch their game plan once the ground attack is shut down.
The Texans are on a roll – at this point in the season, they are used to winning (four of the last five!) so it will be no big deal for them to get after Jackson and prevent him from escaping the pocket to snag his miraculous first downs.
The Ravens have proven to be somewhat weak against the pass, so if Watson can find ways to hook up with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller then they might actually provide an effective counterbalance to their already successful run game for the win.
Why Will the Ravens Win this Game?
The Baltimore Ravens will win this game because a) they are the better team right now, and b) they are only just starting to tap into their true potential, and c) they have Lamar Jackson under center.
Jackson is truly a video game avatar (did you see his jaw-dropping spin move on his way to a running touchdown in Week 10?) and this Ravens team will only continue to get better throughout the season as they learn how to harness and fine-tune their take on the RPO game plan.
Baltimore will win this game if their defense can keep the Texans’ offense off the field, but luckily for the Ravens’ their run game is so strong it’s like they’re playing keep-away with their opponents every week.
Texans vs Ravens – Who Will Win?
The Baltimore Ravens by 4 – Lamar Jackson has only just begun to dominate this league, and he will lead his team to slender victory over the talented, playoff-bound Houston Texans.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Ravens 34, Texans 27.
My prediction for the final score is Ravens 27, Texans 23.
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens – Game Odds