Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 6)
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Chiefs 34, Texans 24. My prediction for the final score is Chiefs 31, Texans 27.
How to Watch: Texans vs Chiefs
What: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, October 13 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
How (TV): CBS
Latest point spread: Texans +4, Chiefs -4
In this head-turning AFC matchup, the 3-2 Houston Texans, who are coming off a big Week 5 win, travel to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas, City, Missouri to take on the 4-1 Chiefs, who just took their first loss of the season a week ago.
This game features two of the best young quarterbacks in the league facing off against each other – Houston’s healthy and re-emerging scrambler Deshaun Watson and Kansas City’s slightly hobbled yet still deadly Patrick Mahomes, both ready to prove their dominance under center against each other.
A Week 6 win will help both teams stay relevant in their divisions, so let’s take a look at how these two teams are set up to face each other in Week 6.
Be sure to also check out our Week 6 Power Rankings!
The 3-2-0 Houston Texans
The 3-2 Houston Texans are riding high after a big Week 5 win over the ever disappointing Atlanta Falcons by a score of 53-32, with receiver Will Fuller finally getting hot with the deep ball from quarterback Watson.
Watson will have to be patient against high-scoring Kansas City and hope that defensive end J.J. Watt has a big enough game to help keep the Texans’ offense on the field more often.
Another huge outing from the Texans’ DeAndre Hopkins would certainly help keep up with the relentlessly scoring Chiefs on the scoreboard, the deep threat receiver catching 7 passes for 88 yards in Week 5, though with no touchdowns.
For more on the Texans, check out this article: Houston Texans Biggest Offseason Moves
The 4-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a Week 5 loss against the Indianapolis Colts where quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked vulnerable, having to play with an already injured ankle that was re-hurt when one of his own 300+ pound lineman accidentally stomped on it.
The good news for Chiefs’ fans is that Mahomes can still be incredibly effective even if he stood absolutely still, especially if receivers Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, who are questionable for Week 6, can somehow heal up and find their way onto the field.
The Chiefs’ defense is their biggest weakness right now, and the squad has trouble preventing the big plays, but since Mahomes’ offense can score repeatedly, this isn’t as big a deal as it would be for most other football franchises.
For more on the Chiefs, check out this article: Kansas City Chiefs Biggest Offseason Moves
What’s at Stake
These two teams have met 10 total times (including 1 postseason game), with Kansas City winning 6 of those games and Houston winning the other 4 times.
The last time these two teams played was in October of the 2017 season when the Chiefs took down the Texans in Houston by the score of 42-34.
If the Texans win this matchup, they’ll move to 4-2-0 and remain atop the AFC South with the Indianapolis Colts, who are also going into Week 6 with a 3-2 record.
But if the Chiefs come out winners in this one, they’ll be 5-1-0 and they would move further from the only AFC West team that’s threatening them right now, and that’s Jon Gruden’s shaky 3-2 Oakland Raiders.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 6 Texans-Chiefs matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Texans and the Chiefs next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
Houston Texans Overall Offense
- Ranked 15th overall in 2018
- Ranked 9th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Houston Texans have the 11th ranked passing attack in the NFL right now, averaging 252.4 yards per game through the air after five weeks.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson is healthy and is currently ranked the 10th most productive passer in the league having completed 110-of-159 passes for 1,364 yards and 11 touchdowns with 1 interception and an impressive completion percentage of 69.2.
The Texans leading receiver after five weeks is Will Fuller, who is currently 11th in the league with 28 catches for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Texans’ rushing attack is ranked 10th in the NFL after averaging 129.4 yards on the ground per game.
Carlos Hyde is the Texans’ best runner and he is currently the 15th best in the NFL with 73 carries for 310 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
Houston has scored 131 total points this season, or 26.2 per game, which is the 8th best total in the NFL.
Houston Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: running back Taiwan Jones (hip), center Greg Mancz (concussion) and wide receiver Kenny Stills (hamstring),
INJURY NOTE: tight ends Kahale Warring (concussion) and Jordan Thomas (cracked rib), offensive guard Senio Kelemete (wrist), running back Lamar Miller (knee – ACL), offensive tackle David Steinmetz (ankle), quarterback Joe Webb (foot) and wide receiver Isaac Whitney (wrist) have been placed on injured reserve.
Kansas City Chiefs Overall Offense
- Ranked 1st overall in 2018
- Ranked 2nd overall in 2019
Passing attack: Kansas City has the best overall passing attack in the league right now after averaging 356.2 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 128-of-195 passes for 1,831 yards and 11 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and a completion percentage of 65.6.
The Chiefs’ best receiver is currently tight end Travis Kelce, who has caught 28 passes for 439 yards with 1 touchdown in five weeks, ranked 7th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Kansas City has the 25th ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 88.6 rushing yards per game.
LeSean “Shady” McCoy is the Chiefs’ best runner and now he is the 30th best in the NFL with 40 carries for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Kansas City has scored 148 points in 2019, averaging 29.6 per game, which is the 3rd highest average in the league right now.
Kansas City Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: wide receivers Tyreek Hill (shoulder) and Sammy Watkins (hamstring).
Injury notes: offensive tackle Eric Fisher (groin) is listed as out, while quarterback Chad Henne (ankle), wide receivers Felton Davis (shoulder), Davon Grayson (knee) and Marcus Kemp (knee) and tight end David Wells (undisclosed), offensive tackle Andrew Wylie (ankle), fullback John Lovett (shoulder) and quarterback Chad Henne (ankle) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Chiefs have head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and even if he has to play on one leg that still gives Kansas City the offensive advantage in this one.
Defensive Stats Comparison
Houston Texans Overall Defense
- Ranked 12th overall in 2018
- Ranked 20th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Texans have the 25th best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 270.4 yards through the air per game.
Houston’s defense has 2 team picks and they have 15 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Texans are the 12th best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 95.0 yards per game.
Houston has allowed their opponents to score 110 total points, or 22 per game, which is 14th lowest in the NFL.
Texans Defensive Players to Watch
If you’re in the mood to watch a great tackler, check out Texans’ inside linebacker Zach Cunningham, who has 41 tackles, a sack and a fumble recovery after five games.
Definitely watch for the perfectly named Texans’ outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, who has 5.0 sacks already, plus an interception and 2 passes defended, 4 forced fumbles and 19 total tackles.
Houston has a free safety worth keeping an eye on, Tashaun Gipson, who has a 79-yard pick-six and 4 passes defended plus 19 total tackles so far this season.
Texans Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: no Houston defensive players are currently questionable for Week 6.
Injury Notes: defensive end Ira Savage-Lewis (undisclosed) was waived / injured by the Texans, while linebacker Duke Efjifor (Achilles), linebacker Chris Landrum (undisclosed), defensive tackle Ira Lewis (undisclosed) have been placed on injured reserve.
Kansas City Chiefs Overall Defense
- Ranked 31st overall in 2018
- Ranked 25th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Chiefs’ defense is 6th best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 204.2 yards per game.
Kansas City’s defense has 4 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 15 total sacks after five weeks.
Run coverage: The Chiefs are 9th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 88.2 yards per matchup.
Kansas City has allowed their opponents to score 113 total points this season, or 22.6 per game, which is 16th fewest in the NFL.
Chiefs Defensive Players to Watch
The best tackler on the Chiefs at this point in the season is outside linebacker Damien Wilson, who has 35 total tackles, .5 sacks and a forced fumble.
Check out one of the Chiefs’ better offseason pickups, former Browns’ defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, who has 2.5 sacks posted, plus 16 tackles and a forced fumble for Kansas City this year.
Frank Clark is one of those defensive ends that can do it all, and so far, this season he has a sack and an interception plus 2 passes defended and 11 tackles (3 for loss).
Chiefs Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: linebackers Anthony Hitchens (groin) and Dorian O’Daniel (hamstring).
Injury notes: defensive end Tim Ward (knee – ACL) and linebacker Darius Harris (undisclosed) are listed as NFI and defensive tackle Chris Jones is listed as doubtful, while defensive end Breeland Speaks (knee – MCL), defensive tackle Xavier Williams (ankle), cornerbacks Michael Hunter (groin) and Keith Reaser (Achilles) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Texans are less banged up on defense and have better numbers right now, so they have a slight defensive advantage in Week 6.
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Special Teams Stats Comparison
Houston’s punter, Trevor Daniel, is in his second NFL season, both with the Texans, and so far this season he has punted 11 times for a net average of 40.9 yards per punt, 24th best in the league.
Kansas City’s veteran punter, Dustin Colquitt, is in his fifteenth NFL season, all with the Chiefs, and this season he has punted 14 times for a net average of 38.0 yards per punt, which is the 32nd best in the league.
Houston’s Hawaiian born placekicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, just had a second-round restricted free agent tender placed on him in March.
Fairbairn is 5-for-7 this season, his longest a 50-yarder, and he missed 3 extra point attempts (14/17).
Kansas City’s placekicker, Harrison Butker, is in his third NFL season, all with the Chiefs.
Butker has made 10-of-11 field goals this season, his longest a 46 yarder, and so far, he has missed one extra point attempt (16/17).
Houston’s punt returner, wide receiver DeAndre Carter, is ranked 14th in punt return average this season.
Carter has returned 8 punts for 79 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 9.9 yards per return, his longest for 23 yards.
Kansas City’s punt returner, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, should be back in the lineup this week.
While he was injured, wide receiver Mecole Hardman filled in, his rank 1st in punt return average this year after returning 1 punt for 20 yards, averaging 20 yards per return.
Special Teams Advantage
Kansas City has a more accurate place kicker so they have the advantage on special teams for this one.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Texans Win this Game?
The Houston Texans will win this one because Deshaun Watson is finally healed up and playing like he did during his rookie season when he blew football minds before having to sit out with an injury
The Texans are better on defense, so they will slow down Mahomes’ passing game by getting after him (talking to you, J.J.) while his ankle is still ginger and preventing him from making evasive moves out of an imploding pocket.
Houston will win this one because they have a two-headed rushing attack (Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde) that can kill you on the ground and through the air, as well.
Why Will the Chiefs Win this Game?
The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Texans in Week 6 because they are a far better team on offense and their defense is good enough to shut Watson and company down.
If Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins are both healthy enough to suit up (and it looks like they will be), you can almost guarantee a passing touchdown (or two) from each of them from a well-protected Mahomes keeping his ankle safe from getting stomped on.
The Chiefs will win this game because they are playing at home again for the second time in a row, and they had their only loss in front of their hometown crowd last week and there is no way a team this talented will let that happen two times in a row.
This Game Goes to the
Kansas City Chiefs by 4, no way they lose twice in a row at home, especially if a healed-up Tyreek Hill is back out on the field.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Chiefs 34, Texans 24.
My prediction for the final score is Chiefs 31, Texans 27.
Texans vs Chiefs: Odds
|Sportsbook||HOU Texans||KC Chiefs|
|Sportsbook||HOU Texans +4||KC Chiefs -4|
|Sportsbook||Over 55.5||Under 55.5|