New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 4)
John Breech of CBS Sports takes the over and predicts the score as Patriots 27, Bills 16. My prediction is take the under, final score Patriots 24, Bills 16.
Current Odds Listed for Week 4: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
How to Watch: Patriots vs Bills
What: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, September 29 at 1:00 p.m. ET
Where: New Era Field in Orchard Park, New York
How (TV): CBS
Latest point spread: Patriots -7, Bills +7
Sunday’s Week 4 game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills could get out of hand fairly quickly if it turns out that the undefeated Bills aren’t actually as good as their 4-0 record would indicate, mainly because the 4-0 defending Super Bowl Champ Patriots are every bit as excellent as they seem.
The Bills are at home and have a solid defense, but their offense is run by second-year quarterback Josh Allen, and it does not seem unlikely that Patriots general manager, head coach, and defensive guru Bill Belichick and his on-field eyes, ears and arm Tom Brady will figure out exactly how to neutralize whatever hometown magic he brings.
Let’s take a quick look at how each of these two teams is set up for Week 4.
The 3-0-0 New England Patriots
A shocking fact about these New England Patriots, who have easily danced wins out of the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, is that they have yet to give up a touchdown this year, a scary thought for a Bills’ offense that is ranked just 30th overall in scoring (16.8 points per game).
The Patriots once again seem unbeatable in 2019 – the best quarterback ever protected by one of the league’s premier offensive lines, including slot and deep threat receiver threats with a two-headed running attack that leaves opponents breathless (and at a loss).
Oh, and let’s not forget their defense, best in the league right now, so this game seems like a given for New England, a team that appears to be on a direct path back to the Super Bowl for the umpteenth time this century.
Read more on the New England Patriots odds to make the playoffs.
The 3-0-0 Buffalo Bills
Sure, the Buffalo Bills are also undefeated, but let’s be honest – they haven’t beaten anyone good yet either, their wins coming against the 0-3 New York Jets, the 1-2 New York Giants and the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals.
Second-year quarterback Josh Allen is terrific, but is he ‘beat Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and their killer defense’ good?
This will be a true test to see if these Buffalo Bills are for real – but if they do indeed have the defense to keep the Patriots from running up the score and the young offense that can keep a step ahead of New England’s league-leading defense, there will be no doubts about the 2019 Buffalo Bills anymore.
Check out the Buffalo Bills postseason odds.
What’s at Stake?
These two teams have met 118 total times (including 1 postseason game), with Buffalo winning 43 of those games and New England winning 74 times.
The Patriots have won 13 of the last 15 meetups with the Bills, the last one being in December of last season at Gillette Stadium when New England beat Buffalo by a score of 24-12.
If the Patriots win this matchup, they’ll be 4-0-0 and they will have taken care of their only real threat this year in the AFC East.
But if the Bills come out on top, then they’ll move to 4-0-0 and will gain a one-game advantage over the Patriots that few teams in that division have had in the last few decades.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 4 Patriots-Bills matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Patriots and the Bills next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Offense
- Ranked 5th overall in 2018
- Ranked 5th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The New England Patriots’ passing game is 8th best in the league right now after throwing for 266.1 yards per game and 29 touchdowns.
Quarterback Tom Brady is the 7th ranked at his position, having completed 72-of-106 for 911 yards and 7 touchdowns with no interceptions.
Brady’s best receiving target so far is slot receiver Julian Edelman, who has caught 17 passes for 196 yards and 1 touchdown.
Rushing attack: The Patriots have the 20th best rushing attack in the league, averaging 97.0 yards per game.
Right now, New England’s best runner is back Rex Burkhead, who has 24 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown with no fumbles.
The Patriots offense has scored 106 total points in three weeks, second-most in the NFL.
New England Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 4: wide receiver Julian Edelman (ribs) and tight end Matt LaCrosse (ankle).
Injury notes: tackle Yodny Cajuste (quadriceps) has a NFI, wide receiver Cameron Meredith (undisclosed) is listed as PUP-R, tight end Ben Watson (suspension) is listed as OUT, while receiver N’Keal Harry (ankle), tackle Isaiah Wynn (toe), center David Andrews (illness) and guard Hjalte Froholdt (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Buffalo Bills Overall Offense
- Ranked 30th overall in 2018
- Ranked 8th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Buffalo Bills’ passing offense is ranked 19th in the league, averaging 240.0 yards through the air per game.
Bills’ second-year quarterback Josh Allen is the 17th best in the league after three weeks having completed 66-of-103 for 750 yards and 3 touchdowns with 3 interceptions.
Allen’s most productive target has been ace receiver John Brown, who has caught 18 passes for 246 yards and 1 touchdown.
Rushing attack: Buffalo has the 5th best rushing attack in the league, averaging 151.3 yards on the ground per game and 5 touchdowns.
The Bills’ best runner so far is Frank Gore, who has run the ball a total of 44 times in 2019 for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
Buffalo has scored a total of 66 points in 2019, 17th most in the league.
Buffalo Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 4: running back Devin Singletary (hamstring), wide receiver Zay Jones (undisclosed), tight end Tyler Kroft (ankle) and guard Jon Feliciano (neck).
Injury notes: tight end Jason Croom (hamstring) and LaAdrian Waddle (quadriceps) have both been placed on injured reserve.
The Patriots have Brady and Belichick, advantage New England.
Defensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Defense
- Ranked 21st overall in 2018
- Ranked 1st overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Patriots have the number one pass defense in the league right now, allowing opponents just 162.32 yards through the air per game.
New England’s defense has a total of 6 interceptions (best in the NFL) and 13 sacks (tied for most in the league).
Run coverage: New England’s run coverage is ranked first in the league, allowing opponents to average just 36.7 yards per game on the ground.
Opponents of the Patriots have scored a total of 17 points in three games, which is the least number of points allowed for any team in the NFL.
Patriots Defensive Players to Watch
The best tackler on the Patriots right now is outside linebacker Jamie Collins, who has 19 total tackles and 2.5 sacks, 2 interceptions (one for a 69-yard touchdown) with 5 passes defended.
Keep your eyes on defensive tackle Adam Butler, who also has 2.5 sacks along with 7 tackles.
Watch whenever Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen tries to throw on free safety Devin McCourty, who has a league-leading 3 interceptions along with 7 passes defended and 8 tackles.
Patriots Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 4: safety Nate Ebner (groin), linebackers Shilique Calhoun (personal) and Dont’a Hightower (shoulder).
Injury notes: linebacker Brandon King (quadriceps), safety Malik Gant (undisclosed), safety D’Angelo Ross (undisclosed), defensive ends Keionta Davis (undisclosed) and Derek Rivers (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Buffalo Bills Overall Defense
- Ranked 2nd overall in 2018
- Ranked 5th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: Buffalo has a top ten pass defense (ranked 9th), the squad allowing opponents to run for an average of 211.7 yards per game.
The Bills’ defense has 4 interceptions total and 7 sacks.
Run coverage: The Bills are the 8th best in the league against the run, opponents rushing for an average of 88.0 yards per game.
Buffalo’s defense has allowed their opponents to score 47 total points, tied for 5th best in the league.
Bills Defensive Players to Watch
Free safety Jordan Poyer is tied for the 25th best tackler in the NFL right now with 23 takedowns plus an interception, 2 passes defended, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
The Bills have 7 team sacks so far, so keep an eye out for defensive end Jerry Hughes, who has 1.5 of them plus 6 tackles and a forced fumble.
Definitely watch out for cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is tied for 2nd most interceptions in the league with 2, along with 4 passes defended and 13 tackles.
Bills Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 4: cornerback Taron Johnson (hamstring)
Injury notes: linebackers Tyrel Dodson (suspension) and Corey Thompson (ankle) are listed as OUT, while defensive end Mike Lone (pectoral), defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (knee-ACL) and linebacker Vosean Joseph (shoulder) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Without a doubt, the Patriots are the better defensive squad in Week 4.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
New England’s rookie punter, Jake Bailey, is in his first NFL season and this season he has punted 13 times for a net average of 42.5 yards per punt, which was the 15th best in the league.
Buffalo’s punter, Corey Bojorquez, is in his second NFL season, and so far in 2019, he has punted 15 times for a net average of 33.7 yards per punt, 35th best in the league.
New England’s rookie placekicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is in his 14th NFL season, all with the Patriots.
Gostkowski is 6-of-7 in 2019, his longest a 41-yarder and he has missed 3 extra point attempts (10/13).
Buffalo’s placekicker, Stephen Hauschka, is in his 12th NFL season (3rd with the Bills).
Hauschka has gone 3-for-4 this season, his longest a 45-yarder, and he has missed zero extra point attempts (7/7).
New England’s punt returner, wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, is ranked 21st in the league in return average.
Olszewski has returned 13 punts for 88 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per return, his longest for 20 yards.
Buffalo’s punt returner, wide receiver Andre Roberts, is ranked 36th in the league in return average.
Roberts has returned 3 punts for 4 yards, averaging 1.3 yards per return, his longest for 4 yards.
Special Teams Advantage
The Patriots’ special teams have more experience in some cases and more success in others, and therefore have the advantage in Week 4.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Patriots Win this Game?
The New England Patriots will win this game because they are still a total powerhouse and the Buffalo Bills don’t have what it takes to stop them.
The Patriots have a far superior offense, defense, and even their special teams look better, so chances are they are going take this game.
41-year-old quarterback Tom Brady will have to hang up his cleats eventually, but it will not be because they lost to this Bills team who (so far) have only been able to beat teams that have losing records and no shot at the postseason.
Why Will the Bills Win this Game?
The Buffalo Bills will beat the New England Patriots at home to prove to the football world that they are for real and not a flash in the pan as predicted.
Josh Allen is talented, receiver John Brown is tops in the league, and then throw in Cole Beasley and running back Frank Gore and you can see how this Buffalo team might be able to outscore the Patriots.
If the Bills win, it will be at the last minute and because they figured out how to neutralize the hard-hitting and elusive Edelman, which is entirely possible, just not at all easy.
This Game Goes To
The New England Patriots, because this team is (once again) going places, and they have no time to make a stop for the Buffalo Bills, though it won’t be a scoring walk in the park for either team since both defenses are so good.
John Breech of CBS Sports takes the over and predicts the score as Patriots 27, Bills 16.
My prediction is take the under, final score Patriots 24, Bills 16.