New England Patriots vs New York Jets: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 7)
This game goes to the New England Patriots by two touchdowns. My prediction for the final score is Patriots 31, Jets 17.
How to Watch: Patriots vs Jets
What: New England Patriots at New York Jets
When: Monday Night Football, October 21 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
How (TV): ESPN
Patriots vs Jets: Latest point spread
Patriots -9.5, Jets +9.5
Monday Night Football in Week 7 looks to be an AFC East blowout, with the undefeated 6-0 New England Patriots traveling to East Rutherford for an easy win over the 1-4 New York Jets, or at least that’s the plan for Tom Brady and company.
Having other ideas is Jets quarterback Sam Darnold, now healthy and back on the field and ready to prove he’s accurate (he has almost a 70 percent completion rate) and capable of winning big games (or any games) but he faces Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who has aged to perfection and seems incapable of losing right now.
It’s the 100th season of the NFL, so expect anything to happen, even miracles, and here we take a quick look at how both have set themselves up for this Week 7 AFC East showdown.
Be sure to also check out our Week 7 Power Rankings!
The 6-0-0 New England Patriots
Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots will be well rested by Monday, coming off a Week 6 Thursday Night Football spanking of the other New York football team, the Giants, by an impressive score of 35-14.
After facing some fairly easy competition thus far, the 7-0 Patriots are either leading or in the top-5 of just about every offensive and defensive stat there is right now and have looked undefeatable, but they still have plenty of worthy adversaries remaining on their 2019 schedule (talking to you, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, Chiefs and Bills).
The big trouble in New England right now is with the injury bug, specifically to the receiving corps, with three of quarterback Tom Brady’s main playmakers listed as questionable for Sunday (see below), which won’t be much fun to work around if they can’t suit up for this one.
The 1-4-0 New York Jets
Sam Darnold returned from his mono-induced absence in Week 6 and led his winless Jets to their first victory of the season over a shocked and struggling Dallas Cowboys, 24-22.
Darnold was 23-of-32 for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns with a pick, targeting Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder for over 220+ yards between them, though the Jets could have used a little more production from running back Le’Veon Bell, who had 14 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown.
The Jets defense is decent against the run (ranked 13th in the NFL), which will help against the Patriots’ two-headed rush attack via Sony Michel and James White, but their passing defense is in the bottom third of the league and will have to step up against Brady’s bunch.
What’s at Stake
These two divisional rivals have met 121 total times (including 3 postseason games), with New York winning 54 of those times and New England winning the other 66 games, plus there has been one tie ballgame.
This will be the second time these two teams have played this season, the first time being in Week 3 at Gillette Stadium in New England, where the final score was Patriots 30, Jets 14.
If the Patriots win this matchup, they’ll move to 7-0-0 and whispers of an undefeated season will begin to get louder as they (once again) dominate the AFC East.
But if the Jets come out winners in this one, they’ll be 2-4-0 and be the talk of the football world for a long time for doing what seemed impossible, a sure sign that Sam Darnold is for real and the Patriots are, after all, beatable.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 7 Patriots-Jets matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Patriots and the Jets next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Offense
- Ranked 5th overall in 2018
- Ranked 8th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The New England Patriots have the 8th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 386.3 yards per game through the air after six weeks.
Quarterback Tom Brady is currently ranked the 6th most productive passer in the league having completed 149-of-228 passes for 1,743 yards and 10 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and a completion percentage of 65.4.
The Patriots’ leading receiver after six weeks is slot man Julian Edelman (listed as questionable for Week 7, see below), who is currently 13th in the league with 38 catches for 449 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Also, check out our article on the most NFL passing yards!
Rushing attack: The Patriots’ rushing attack is ranked 21st in the NFL after averaging 101.5 yards on the ground per game.
Sony Michel is the Patriots’ best runner and he is currently the 17th best in the NFL with 100 carries for 348 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
New England has scored 190 total points this season, or 31.7 per game, which is the 2nd best total in the NFL.
Check out our top-dozen odds for most rushing yards!
New England Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: running back Rex Burkhead (foot), wide receivers Phillip Dorsett (hamstring), Julian Edelman (chest) and Josh Gordon (knee).
Injury notes: tight end Matt LaCosse (knee – MCL) is listed as doubtful, while offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste (quadriceps) is listed as NFI, while kicker Stephen Gostkowski (hip), receiver N’Keal Harry (ankle), tackle Isaiah Wynn (toe), center David Andrews (illness) and guard Hjalte Froholdt (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
New York Jets Overall Offense
- Ranked 29th overall in 2018
- Ranked 32nd overall in 2019
Passing attack: New York has the worst passing attack in the league right now after averaging just 156.0 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Sam Darnold is back in the lineup after missing games due to having mono, and he is now the 34th most productive NFL passer after completing 51-of-73 passes for 513 yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception and a completion percentage of 69.9.
The Jets’ best receiver is currently Jamison Crowder, who has caught 28 passes for 272 yards with 0 touchdowns in six weeks, ranked 59th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: New York has the 30th ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 64.0 yards on the ground per game.
Le’Veon Bell is the Jets’ best runner and now he is the 27th most productive in the NFL with 85 carries for 256 yards and 1 touchdown, averaging 3.0 yards per carry.
New York has scored 63 points in 2019, averaging 12.6 per game, which is the 31st highest (or second lowest) scoring average in the NFL right now.
New York Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: running back Trenton Cannon (foot), wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (hamstring), tight end Chris Herndon (hamstring), offensive tackle Kelvin Beachum (ankle), center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) and offensive guard Brian Winters (shoulder).
INJURY NOTES: offensive guard Kelechi Osemele (shoulder) is listed as OUT, while running back Jalin Moore (ankle) is listed as NFI, while wide receiver Quincy Enunwa (neck), offensive tackle Brent Qvale (knee), quarterback Trevor Siemian (ankle) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Patriots have a GOAT under center and as head coach, and until those GOATs retire that’s all they’ll ever need to have the offensive advantage every week they play, especially this Sunday against the offensively weak Jets.
Popular NFL Articles
Defensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Defense
- Ranked 21st overall in 2018
- Ranked 1st overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Patriots have the 2nd best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 161.0 yards through the air per game.
New England’s defense has 14 team picks and they have 25 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Patriots are the 3rd best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 73.7 yards per game.
New England has allowed their opponents to score 48 total points, or 8 per game, which is lowest in the NFL by far.
Patriots Defensive Players to Watch
Check out Patriots’ outside linebacker Jamie Collins, the guy’s been busy this season, so far with 4.5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, 3 interceptions (one was a 69-yard pick-six), 76 passes defended, a forced fumble and 30 tackles (6 for a loss).
On the Patriots’ defensive front line is rookie end Chase Winovich, a man that Sam Darnold had best watch out for, with 4.0 sacks already, 5 quarterback hits, plus 8 total tackles (3 for a loss).
The man with the most interceptions in the league right now plays in the New England secondary, and that’s free safety Devin McCourty, who has 4 picks, 9 passes defended and 17 total tackles.
Patriots Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: linebacker Dont’a Hightower (shoulder) and safety Patrick Chung (chest).
Injury notes: defensive end Michael Bennett (suspension) is listed as OUT, while linebacker Brandon King (quadriceps), safety Malik Gant (undisclosed), safety D’Angelo Ross (undisclosed), defensive ends Keionta Davis (undisclosed) and Derek Rivers (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
New York Jets Overall Defense
- Ranked 25th overall in 2018
- Ranked 19th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Jets’ defense is 21st best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 262.2 yards per matchup.
New York’s defense has 4 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 7 total sacks after six weeks.
Run coverage: The Jets are 13th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 95.8 yards per game.
New York has allowed their opponents to score 123 total points this season, or 24.6 per matchup, which is 13th fewest in the NFL.
Jets Defensive Players to Watch
The Jets have a linebacker worth checking out by the wonderful name of Neville Hewitt, who already has an interception, 3 passes defended, 2.0 sacks, 6 quarterback hits and 37 total tackles (4 for a loss).
Keep your eyes on New York outside linebacker Jordan Jenkins, the man can ball, with 2.0 sacks posted in 2019, along with 4 quarterback hits, a forced fumble and 6 total tackles (1 for a loss).
Strong safety Jamal Adams is the Jets player to watch in the secondary, already with an interception (it was a fantastic 61-yard pick-six in Week 3 against the Patriots!) and 5 passes defended, plus 28 total tackles.
Jets Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 7: defensive end Henry Anderson (shoulder – AC joint), defensive tackle Steve McLendon (hamstring), linebackers Blake Cashman (ankle), Neville Hewitt (neck), Albert McClellan (concussion) and C.J. Mosley (groin) and cornerbacks Nate Hairston (knee) and Darryl Roberts (ankle).
INJURY NOTE: defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd has been suspended for the next six games for violating the league’s policy on performance enhancing substances, cornerback Blessuan Austin (knee – ACL) has a NFI, while defensive end John Franklin-Myers (undisclosed), cornerback Mark Myers (undisclosed) and linebacker Avery Williamson (knee – ACL) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Patriots have the best overall defense in the league right now (even without the suspended Michael Bennett, punished for having what he called a “philosophical disagreement” with his position coach) and have an incredible defensive advantage over the New York Jes.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
New England’s punter, Jake Bailey, is in his first NFL season and this season he has punted 31 times for a net average of 43.2 yards per punt, which was the 12th best in the league.
New York’s punter, Lac Edwards, is in his fifth NFL season, all with the Jets, and last week he punted 36 times for a net average of 42.8 yards per punt, which was the 15th best in the league.
New England’s placekicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is in his 14th NFL season, all with the Patriots, and has been placed on injured reserve for a hip injury.
Mike Nugent, a 15-year NFL veteran, has been signed on to kick for the Patriots, and he is 2-of-3 in 2019, his longest a 37-yarder and he has missed 1 extra point attempt (8/9).
New York’s placekicker is now Sam Ficken, is in his third NFL season, first with the Jets, and was signed after the Jets’ prior kicker, Kaare Vedvik, missed an extra point kick and a 45-yard field goal in the Jets Week 1 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
So far, Ficken is 2-of-3 in 2019, his longest a 46-yarder and he has missed 0 extra point attempts (5/5).
New England’s punt returner, wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, is ranked 21st in the league in return average.
Olszewski has returned 17 punts for 147 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per return, his longest for 20 yards.
New York’s punt returner, wide receiver Braxton Berrios, is ranked 25th in the league in return average.
Berrios has returned 5 punts for 39 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per return, his longest for 12 yards.
Special Teams Advantage
The Patriots and Jets are both dealing with new place kickers (but for different reasons, see above) and their punters and punt returners are just about equally as effective, so this one is a wash when it comes to special teams advantage.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Patriots Win this Game?
There isn’t enough space to type why the New England Patriots SHOULD win this game, but the simple reason why they WILL win this game is because they are a team that gets the job done, and this particular job is no different.
Regardless of which Patriots receivers are healthy enough to suit up, Brady and Belichick will game plan how to neutralize Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder and say, “Go ahead, Sam Darnold, beat us with everyone else.”
And chances are, New England will win because their defense is the best overall right now (first in interceptions, second in sacks) and they should have zero trouble finding weak spots in the New York front line.
Why Will the Jets Win this Game?
Back to back upset victories?
mm, why not, maybe all the Jets’ random pieces are finally starting to come together and they can take advantage of being underestimated for awhile (not that Belichick underestimates anyone, ever, mind you).
For Darnold to continue throwing the ball well, the Jets will have to protect against the second-best sacking team in the league, something that New York has been struggling to do all season, having allowed 25 sacks so far the season, second most in the league.
New York may be weak on offense right now, but their defense is actually decent, so if coordinator Brant Boyer can dig deep and find out some way to annoy and limit Tom Brady (like they did to Dak Prescott last week) and keep the Patriots to just field goals, this game could actually be close, maybe even winnable.
This Game Goes to the
New England Patriots by two touchdowns, because they are talented top to bottom and have depth on both sides of the ball, so even banged up they can field a team that can put a major whooping on these struggling New York Jets.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Patriots 27, Jets 20.
My prediction for the final score is Patriots 31, Jets 17.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets – Game Odds
|Sportsbook||Patriots -9||Jets +9|