New York Giants vs New England Patriots: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 6)
My prediction for the final score is Patriots 31, Giants 3.
How to Watch: Giants vs Patriots
What: New York Giants at New England Patriots
When: Thursday Night Football, October 10 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
How (TV): NFLN
Latest point spread: Giants +16.5, Patriots -16.5
In one of the biggest one-sided games of the season the undefeated New England Patriots are favored over the two-win New York Giants by almost two-and-a-half touchdowns, and even that’s being stingy.
The Patriots outmatch the Giants in every category, from head coach to quarterback and on both sides of the ball, plus then throw in the fact that this matchup takes place in Foxborough and suddenly you’ve got the makings for a real slaughter here.
Let’s take a quick look at how these two teams have set themselves up for Week 6.
The 2-3-0 New York Giants
New York Giants head coach Pat Shurmur decided three weeks ago to go with their rookie quarterback, and since then Daniel Jones has rewarded him by going 2-1 and completing 64.2 percent of his passes.
The Giants don’t do well against good teams, which is bad news for them in Week 6 since the team they are playing, the undefeated New England Patriots, are very good and outrank them in every category known to football.
The Giants’ 30th ranked defense, the one that has so far surrendered more yards than any other NFC team (409.4 per game) in the league, will need to step up if they are to have any chance against the offensively effective Patriots.
For more on the Giants, check out this article: New York Giants Postseason Predictions
The 5-0-0 New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are obsessed with being prepared and they never fall asleep, especially at home and against bad teams, both of which are true in Week 6 against the Giants at Foxborough.
Tom Brady throws quickly, stays protected behind a stellar front line and therefore healthy, the Patriots’ run game is two-headed so remains energized on all three downs for all four quarters while their defense, currently best in the league overall, has shut down opponents on a record-breaking pace.
General manager / head coach / defensive guru Bill Belichick is a genius at neutralizing whatever the Patriots’ opponents’ strengths happen to be, so expect him to go after the Giants’ Danny ‘Dimes’ Jones with everything his defensive line is capable of.
For more on the Patriots, check out this article: New England Patriots Postseason Predictions
What’s at Stake
These two teams have met 12 total times (including 2 postseason games), with New England winning 6 of those games and New York winning the other 6 times.
The last time these two teams played was in November of the 2015 season in New York, where the Patriots beat the Giants by a score of 27-26.
If the Giants win this matchup, they’ll move to 3-3-0 and by ending the Patriots’ winning streak, rookie quarterback Jones will establish himself as a legitimate threat under center.
But if the Patriots come out winners in this one, they’ll stay undefeated and move to 6-0-0 and continue their quest for the perfect season, staying in front of the surging Buffalo Bills, both teams hoping to make a Super Bowl appearance out of the AFC East.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 6 Giants-Patriots matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Giants and the Patriots next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
New York Giants Overall Offense
- Ranked 17th overall in 2018
- Ranked 15th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The New York Giants have the 14th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 248.82 yards per game through the air after five weeks.
Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is now the 27th most productive passer in the league having completed 70-of-109 passes for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.2.
The Giants leading receiver after five weeks is tight end Evan Engram, who is currently 16th in the league with 33 catches for 373 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Giants’ rushing attack is ranked 15th after averaging 116.0 yards on the ground per matchup.
Running back Saquon Barkley (currently out, see below) is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, ranked 26th among running backs, so far with 37 total carries for 237 yards and 1 touchdown.
New York has scored 97 total points this season, or 19.4 per game, which is the 23rd best total in the NFL
New York Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: running backs Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Wayne Gallman (concussion), tight end Evan Engram (knee – MCL) and offensive tackle Nate Solder (ankle).
Injury notes: wide receiver Sterling Shepard (concussion) is listed as OUT, while wide receivers Corey Coleman (knee – ACL), Amba Etta-Tawo (Achilles) and Russell Shepard (foot), tight end Isaiah Searight (hamstring) and offensive tackle George Asafo-Adjei (concussion) have been placed on injured reserve.
New England Patriots Overall Offense
- Ranked 5th overall in 2018
- Ranked 11th overall in 2019
Passing attack: New England has the 6th best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 279.2 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Tom Brady has completed 118-of-187 passes for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns with 2 interceptions and a completion percentage of 63.1.
The Patriots’ best receiver is slot man Julian Edelman (listed as questionable right now, see below), who has caught 29 passes for 336 yards with 2 touchdowns in four games, ranked 28th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: New England has the 21st ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 99.0 rushing yards per game.
Sony Michel is the Patriots’ best runner and he is currently the 21st best in the league with 78 carries for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 3.4 yards per rush.
New England has scored 155 points in 2019, averaging 31 per game, which is the 2nd highest average in the league right now.
New England Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: running back Rex Burkhead (foot), wide receivers Phillip Dorsett (hamstring), Julian Edelman (chest) and Josh Gordon (knee),
Injury notes: offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste (quadriceps) has a NFI, wide receiver Cameron Meredith (undisclosed) is listed as PUP-R, tight end Ben Watson (suspension) is listed as OUT, while kicker Stephen Gostkowski (hip), receiver N’Keal Harry (ankle), tackle Isaiah Wynn (toe), center David Andrews (illness) and guard Hjalte Froholdt (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
The New England Patriots have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady running their offense, so they of course have the full advantage on that side of the ball.
Defensive Stats Comparison
New York Giants Overall Defense
- Ranked 23rd overall in 2018
- Ranked 30th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Giants have the 28th best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 279.4 yards through the air per game.
New York’s defense has 5 team interceptions and they have 13 total sacks.
Run coverage: The Giants are the 23rd best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for an average of 130.0 yards per game.
New York has allowed their opponents to score 125 total points, or 25 per game, which is 25th lowest (or 8th highest) in the NFL.
Giants Defensive Players to Watch
Free safety Antoine Bethea is tearing up the Giants’ secondary, already with 40 tackles (22nd most in the league).
Tom Brady had best keep on the lookout for Giants’ linebacker Markus Golden, who has 4.5 sacks to himself, plus 10 quarterback hits and 19 tackles (3 for a loss).
Roaming the New York Giants’ secondary is cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has 2 interceptions, 8 passes defended and 26 tackles this season.
Giants Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: linebackers Lorenzo Carter (neck), Alec Ogletree (hamstring) and Josiah Tauaefa (knee).
Injury notes: defensive end Nate Harvey (knee), linebackers Keion Adams (knee), Ryan Connelly (knee – ACL) and Kareem Martin (knee) and cornerbacks Sam Beal (hamstring), Henre’ Toliver (undisclosed) and Ronald Zamort (ankle) and safeties Kenny Ladler (undisclosed) and Mark McLaurin (foot) have been placed on injured reserve.
New England Patriots Overall Defense
- Ranked 7th overall in 2018
- Ranked 1st overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Patriots’ defense is 1st against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 160.4 yards per game.
New England’s defense has 11 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 24 total sacks after five weeks of play.
Run coverage: The Patriots are 3rd best in the league against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 78.0 yards per game.
New England has allowed their opponents to score 34 total points this season, or 6.8 per matchup, which is the fewest in the NFL.
Patriots Defensive Players to Watch
One of the most productive players on the Patriots’ defense right now is outside linebacker Jamie Collins, who has 27 total tackles so far in 2019, plus 4.5 sacks, 3 interceptions (one a 69-yard pick six), 7 passes defended, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
Also successfully hunting quarterbacks for the Patriots is defensive end Chase Winovich, who has accumulated 4.0 of them, plus 7 tackles.
Leading the NFL in interceptions is New England free safety Devin McCourty, who has 4 of them, plus 9 passes defended and 14 total tackles.
Patriots Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 6: safeties Patrick Chung (heel) and Nate Ebner (groin).
Injury notes: linebacker Brandon King (quadriceps), safety Malik Gant (undisclosed), safety D’Angelo Ross (undisclosed), defensive ends Keionta Davis (undisclosed) and Derek Rivers (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
The Patriots have the best defense in the league right now, the Giants have the third worst, advantage goes to New England once again.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
New York’s punter, Riley Dixon, is in his fourth NFL season and he has punted 20 times so far this season for a net average of 44.8 yards per punt, which is the 4th best in the league.
New England’s punter, Jake Bailey, is in his first NFL season and this season he has punted 28 times for a net average of 43.4 yards per punt, which was the 13th best in the league.
New York’s placekicker, Aldrick Rosas, is in his 3rd NFL season, all with the Giants.
Rosas has made 4-of-5 field goals this year, his longest a 36-yarder, and he has missed no extra point attempts (11/11).
New England’s placekicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is in his 14th NFL season, all with the Patriots, and has been placed on injured reserve for a hip injury.
Mike Nugent, a 15-year NFL veteran, has been signed on to kick, and he is 2-of-2 in 2019, his longest a 37-yarder and he has missed 1 extra point attempt (3/4).
New York’s punt returner is often wide receiver Golden Tate, who is currently ranked 3rd in average punt return yardage.
Tate has returned 1 punt for 17 yards, averaging 17.0 yards per return, his longest for 17 yards.
New England’s punt returner, wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, is ranked 20th in the league in return average.
Olszewski has returned 16 punts for 137 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per return, his longest for 20 yards.
Special Teams Advantage
The Giants have the special teams advantage in this matchup since the Patriots are dealing with a new placekicker and he has had some difficulties starting out.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Giants Win this Game?
If running back Saquon Barkley, who suffered a high ankle sprain back in Week 3, is healthy enough to play on Sunday, then the Giants have a chance of making this game at least a close one.
Plus, throw in the fact that the Patriots are having to deal with a new kicker, Mike Nugent, who so far has struggled a bit, and it’s entirely possible that a close game in the fourth quarter could miraculously swing New York’s way.
For the Giants to win, every player on their team would have to deliver an above the average (and close to perfect) performance while the Patriots would have to suddenly (and most likely temporarily) forget how to be the very best at what they do.
Why Will the Patriots Win this Game?
The Patriots winning this one comes down to simple statistical math – when a great offense takes on a poor defense and the vice versa is also true, the game can only go one way, and that’s with another New England win.
Rookie quarterbacks notoriously don’t do well against the Patriots, so it won’t be tough to imagine the number one defense in the league getting after and affecting a player starting his fourth NFL game.
At this point in the season, every week New England has looked like a cat playing with its dinner before the eventual kill, and Week 6 should go no differently for this team destined to play for yet another Lombardi Trophy in February.
This Game Goes to the
New England Patriots by four and a half touchdowns or so – they’re at home, they’re on a roll, it’s their GOAT vs a rookie and they’re playing the Giants – it’s going to be a killing.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Patriots 34, Giants 13.
My prediction for the final score is Patriots 31, Giants 3.
New York Giants vs New England Patriots – Odds
|Sportsbook||NY Giants||NE Patriots|
|Sportsbook||NY Giants +16.5||NE Patriots -16.5|