NFL Week 5: Point Spreads, Picks, Predictions and Odds

The first quarter of the NFL’s 100th season is already in the books and there are still three undefeated teams remaining with six unfortunate teams that have yet to win any 2019 games at all.

The New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs have surprised nobody with their dominance of the AFC thus far, while the Buffalo Bills have become surprisingly good this season and the Cleveland Browns have finally begun to live up to some of their offseason hype.

In the NFC, the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams are predictably at the top, joined by the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers, the Chicago Bears, the Seattle Seahawks, and the unlikely (and still undefeated) San Francisco 49ers.

Here’s a quick take on each of Week 5’s top ten best NFL matchups.

Good luck!

10) 2-2 Baltimore Ravens at 1-3 Pittsburgh Steelers

How to watch Ravens vs Steelers

What: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Ravens -4, Steelers +4

Money Line

DraftKings – Ravens -190, Steelers +155

Game Rivalry

In this AFC North matchup, the Baltimore Ravens battle to regain their top divisional status as the Pittsburgh Steelers fight to stay alive (and relevant) in 2019.

Why the Favored Baltimore Ravens Will Win

The Baltimore Ravens started the season strong with a 2-0 record earned by a hard-to-stop RPO offense led by second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson, but those wins were against two struggling franchises, the Miami Dolphins and the Arizona Cardinals.

In Week 3, the Ravens again proved their offense was for real when they barely lost to their first serious contender, the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, by a score of 33-28, and then in Week 4 their offense was mostly shut down and their normally high-level defense slightly embarrassed by the surging Cleveland Browns and their record-setting running back, Nick Chubb, 40-25.

Baltimore now faces a 1-3 Pittsburgh Steelers team that’s stuck with their unreliable backup Mason Rudolph under center and is now on the edge of collapsing after losing all three of its Killer B’s for various reasons, the latest being quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a non-contact elbow injury.

The Ravens will prevail in Week 5 because their 1st ranked offense will embarrass Pittsburgh’s 31st ranked defense regardless of how the rest of either team happens to perform.

How the Underdog Pittsburgh Steelers Could Surprise the World

The Pittsburgh Steelers are drowning in the AFC North and after blowing by the hapless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 for their first win, they could absolutely use a victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5 to slowly climb their way back into divisional relevance.

The Steelers may not have Big Ben for the time being (he is not expected to return before the 2020 season due to his elbow surgery), but they have receiver Juju Smith-Schuster catching passes and running back James Conner fighting for yards after contact to keep the offense going.

Despite their weaker defense (strengthened by the recent addition of free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick), the Steelers will win this one because the Ravens have lost two in a row and they are having serious doubts as to whether their RPO offense and their run-happy quarterback are as effective in the long term as they’d hoped.

For more on these two teams’ 2019 season check out the Baltimore Ravens postseason odds and the Pittsburgh Steelers postseason.

9) 4-0 New England Patriots at 0-4 Washington Redskins

How to watch Patriots vs Redskins

What: New England Patriots at Washington Redskins

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: FedEx Field in Prince George’s County, Maryland

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Patriots -15.5, Redskins +15.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Patriots -835, Redskins+600

Game Rivalry

These two teams have only met ten times total in NFL history, the last time being almost four years ago in November of the 2015 season when the Patriots won at home, 27-10.

Why the Favored Patriots Will Win

The undefeated New England Patriots most likely view the thoroughly defeated Washington Redskins as just a necessary and slightly inconvenient speed bump along the way to seasonal dominance.

Statistically, the Patriots outmatch the Redskins in all aspects of the game, and then when you add in the double GOAT factor (quarterback Tom Brady and general manager/head coach/defensive and positional guru Bill Belichick), it is obvious this New England Week 5 win is a given.

That said, neither Belichick nor Brady will underestimate the divisional rival Redskins as an opponent, especially after barely surviving at Buffalo in Week 4.

How the Underdog Washington Redskins Could Surprise the World

The winless Washington Redskins could beat the undefeated New England Patriots if they are thoroughly underestimated by their opponent and head coach Jay Gruden begins to realize that his job is absolutely on the line.

Maybe that will inspire the speech that will propel this Washington team to victory, but it really depends on whether their starting quarterback (The seemingly clueless Case Keenum? The still healing Colt McCoy? Rookie Dwayne Haskins?) can begin to lead and not throw picks, as right now they tie the league lead with 7 total.

The Redskins are due for a win and the Patriots, with their ‘aging’ quarterback and their overconfident and highly effective defense, are due for a shocking loss, and who knows, it could happen in Week 5 against these Redskins.

Read more about the Patriots postseason odds and the Redskins 2019-2020 season.

8) 0-3 New York Jets at 2-2 Philadelphia Eagles

How to Watch Jets vs Eagles

What: New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Lincoln Financial Field at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Jets +13.5, Eagles -13.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Jets +540, Eagles -715

Game Rivalry

These two cross-conference teams have only met ten times before, with the Eagles winning their latest matchup in 2015 by a score of 24-17.

Why the Favored Philadelphia Eagles Will Win

In Week 4 on Thursday Night Football, the Philadelphia Eagles took care of the (until then) undefeated Green Bay Packers by a close score of 34-27 and moved to a 2-2 record and just one game behind the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys, now 3-1 after coming up short against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night.

The Eagles are trying to right their struggling ship, and a win against the winless (albeit well-rested) New York Jets would get them well on their way to the playoffs with a winning record and the confidence to know that they can take care of a lesser opponent when necessary.

The Philadelphia Eagles will beat the New York Jets in Week 5 despite their defense being slightly overmatched because Carson Wentz’s offense is a whole lot better than the Jets’ attack is, especially without Sam Darnold, who is still on the sidelines with debilitating mono.

How the Underdog New York Jets Could Surprise the World

The New York Jets are coming off a bye week and are completely rested, so they could win this one on pure energy alone.

Sam Darnold is out, but his backup Luke Falk, who so far has a completion percentage of 68.1, can get the job done, especially after all the practice he and the team just got done in the off week.

And let’s not forget that regardless of who is under center in New York, running back Le’ Veon Bell is still launching out of the backfield as either a runner or a receiver and all by himself he has the ability to change the outcome of this game.

Read more on the Jets 2019-2020 postseason and the Eagles postseason odds.

7) 1-3 Atlanta Falcons at 2-2 Houston Texans

How to watch

What: Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Falcons +5, Texans -5

Money Line

DraftKings – Falcons +185, Texans -230

Game Rivalry: This cross-conference matchup has happened just four times in the history of the NFL and it has only occurred about once every four years, the latest one in 2015 when the Falcons beat the Texans at home, 48-21.

Why the favored team will win: The 2-2 Houston Texans are coming off a slightly embarrassing loss at home to the Cam Newton-less Carolina Panthers in Week 4 by a score of 10-16, so they will be out to prove that they are still a playoff contender.

The Texans may have a slightly lesser ranked offense and defense right now, but they have scored an average of 2 points more per game than the Falcons have, an important edge given that neither team has looked exceptional on either side of the ball after four weeks.

Where quarterback Deshaun Watson has a slight edge over his veteran counterpart Matt Ryan is in interceptions, with Watson’s 2 interceptions totaling significantly less than Ryan’s 6, something the Texans, who only have 1 defensive pick on the season, need to take advantage of if they want to come out with a win.

How the underdog could surprise the world: For the last couple of seasons, the Atlanta Falcons have been a confusing pro football franchise, with a roster that contains plenty of high-level talent but can’t seem to turn all that playmaking into more wins than losses, typically the direct result of multiple injuries to starting players.

Matt Ryan leads his opponent quarterback Deshaun Watson in just about every category except sacks, where Watson leads handily 18-10, something the Texans front line needs to fix, with the Falcons being the perfect opponent for that with only 5 total sacks, T-25th in the league.

For the Falcons to win in Week 5, they have to figure out how to stay healthy, so far with almost a dozen key players listed on injured reserve, including defensive tackle Michael Bennet (ankle) and safety Keanu Neal (Achilles).

6) 3-1 Buffalo Bills at 2-2 Tennessee Titans

How to watch Bills vs Titans

What: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Bills +2.5, Titans -2.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Bills +128, Titans -155

Game Rivalry: These two AFC teams have met 46 other times (including 3 postseason matchups) with the Titans winning 28 of those games and the Bills winning 18 of them.

Why the favored team will win: The Buffalo Bills may have lost to the New England Patriots in Week 4, but if you saw the game you know that their defense almost won the game for them despite their offense enduring the loss of starting quarterback Josh Allen due to a possible concussion.

The Bills far outrank the Titans in all aspects of the game except in the average number of points per game, where Tennessee scores over a field goal more than Buffalo does per outing.

Buffalo needs to win this game to prove that they can take care of business against their underdogs, and that could go a whole lot easier if Allen is back under center for this one (he is currently listed as questionable).

How the underdog could surprise the world: If you saw how the Tennessee Titans took care of the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 or the Atlanta Falcons last week, you know these Titans, led by hungry quarterback Marcus Mariota, can beat the teams they are supposed to struggle against.

The same goes for this Week 5 matchup with these Buffalo Bills, where the Titans trail in most offensive and defensive categories except in total scoring, where they lead by over 3 points per game.

For a victory, the Titans will have to depend heavily on running back Derrick Henry, who ranks 8th among backs after carrying the ball 78 times for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 4.0 yards per run.

Read more about the Buffalo Bills postseason odds.

5) 3-1 Chicago Bears at 2-2 Oakland Raiders

How to watch Bears vs Raiders

What: Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Bears -4.5, Raiders +4.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Bears -230, Raiders +185
Game Rivalry: The Bears and Raiders have only played each other 14 times before, with both teams winning 7 of those games.

Why the favored team will win: The Chicago Bears will most likely be playing this game without franchise quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, which may or may not be a good thing, depending out your opinion of his backup, Chase Daniel

Daniel filled in for Trubisky in Week 3, who went out with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and won the game against the division rival Minnesota Vikings by a score of 16-6 after throwing 22 completions for 195 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions.

For the Bears to win this one, their defense has to show up, which they did in Week 4, and it would help if whatever personal reason linebacker Roquan Smith had for missing the game against the Vikings would clear up in time for this upcoming overseas trip to London.

How the underdog could surprise the world: For some reason, the Oakland Raiders have won their last two games despite their 22nd ranked offense and their 21st ranked defense.

It could be because the Raiders’ rookie running back, Josh Jacobs, is now a top-ten back with 62 carries for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

Also helping Oakland’s winning chances is the defensive play of end Benson Mayowa, who already has 3.5 sacks and 7 tackles with 2 forced fumbles, so Daniels best keep an eye out for him on Sunday in this tricky European location.

Read more about Derek Carr’s 2019 output with the Oakland Raiders.

4) 2-2 Cleveland Browns at 3-0 San Francisco 49ers

How to watch Browns vs 49ers

What: Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

When: Monday Night Football, October 7, 2019, at 8:15 p.m. ET

Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California

How (TV): ESPN

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Browns +3.5, 49ers -3.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Browns +155, 49ers -190

Game Rivalry: This cross-conference matchup has only occurred 19 other times in the history of the NFL, and the Browns have won 12 of those matchups with the 49ers winning 7.

Why the favored team will win: The undefeated San Francisco 49ers will be playing at home after resting on a bye week, so they have no excuses for letting this one slip by.

The 49ers already have five defensive interceptions, tied for second-most in the league, so they should have a complete advantage over the Cleveland Browns’ second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is currently tied for the most interceptions among quarterbacks with 6 on the year so far (two more than the number of touchdowns he’s thrown).

What could also help San Francisco win this one is quarterback Jimmy Garopolo’s accuracy, with a completion percentage of 69.0, a whole ten points higher than the Browns’ Baker Mayfield’s, which is 59.0.

How the underdog could surprise the world: Sure, the Cleveland Browns have to travel all the way to San Francisco to play this one, but they happen to be excellent on the road, so far with both of their 2019 wins coming to them while traveling.

If you have watched this Browns team since Week 1, then you know they are figuring out exactly what makes them tick, and that turns out to be their run game (Nick Chubb) and an extremely solid defense (led by Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon), two factors that took them easily over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4 by a score of 40-25.

Cleveland will win this one over the too-rested 49ers because their offense has now officially come alive, and there is no way Odell Beckham Jr. will follow up a two-catch game with anything less than spectacular, and even against the 49ers 6th ranked pass defense that could be just the edge head coach Freddy Kitchens’ surging Browns need in Week 5.

3) 2-2 Indianapolis Colts at 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs

How to watch Colts vs Chiefs

What: Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday Night Football, October 6, 2019, at 8:200 p.m. ET

Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri

How (TV): NBC

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Colts +10.5, Chiefs -10.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Colts +375, Chiefs -500

Game Rivalry: The Colts and Chiefs have played each other 26 times in the past, the latest time being in last season’s divisional playoffs when Kansas City easily won by a score of 31-13.

Why the favored team will win: The Kansas City Chiefs will win this Week 5 matchup easily, first because they are at home where they are undefeated this year (1-0) and were close enough to perfect last season (7-1).

And secondly, because they have Patrick Mahomes under center, who is proving to be a miracle worker with the football regardless of who is (Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce) or is not (Tyreek Hill) on his roster and who the team on the other side of the ball is.

True, the Detroit Lions challenged the Chiefs in Week 4 and almost took an unexpected win from them, but Kansas City still got the job done on a last-minute drive orchestrated by Mahomes, proving that it will take a special team (probably more special than the current Luck-less Colts) to hand these rolling Chiefs their first loss in 2019.

How the underdog could surprise the world: For the Indianapolis Colts to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, they are going to have to score way more than the 23.5 points per game they have averaged so far in 2019 because the Chiefs know how to find the end zone.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has done a decent job filling in for the retired Andrew Luck and he will have to step up even higher against the Chiefs’ 19th ranked pass defense that’s allowed opponents to throw for 258.8 yards per game.

The Colts have a better defense while the Chiefs’ offense is far superior, so to win, Indianapolis (namely ends Jaball Sheard and Justin Houston) will have to get after Patrick Mahomes and force him to improvise more than he likes, which happens to be quite a bit, unfortunately.

For more on Patrick Mahomes, read our predictions for who will be the 2019-2020 NFL MVP.

2) 3-1 Los Angeles Rams at 3-1 Seattle Seahawks

How to Watch Rams vs Seahawks

What: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

When: Thursday Night Football, October 3, 2019, at 8:20 p.m. ET

Where: CenturyLink Field in Seattle, Washington

How (TV): NFLN

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Rams +2, Seahawks -2

Money Line

DraftKings – Rams +107, Seahawks -130

Game Rivalry

The Rams and Seahawks NFC West rivalry has gone on for 42 games (once in the postseason), with the Seahawks winning 23 of those matchups and the Rams winning 19 of them.

Why the Favored Los Angeles Rams Will Win

This is one of the top two games of Week 5, and the Los Angeles Rams should take care of business against the (arguably) equally matched Seattle Seahawks because they are used to it, winning both of their matchups last season.

If the Rams are serious about a playoff run, they have to fix whatever ailed their defense in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they were outscored 55-40 in front of a home crowd.

Quarterback Jared Goff has too many weapons at his disposal (receivers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and slot man Brandon Cooks plus soft-handed running back Todd Gurley) for Los Angeles to lose this critical divisional matchup, but it will require a little of that audible magic from head coach Sean McVay.

How the Underdog Seattle Seahawks Could Surprise the World

The Seattle Seahawks are only underdogs by a point here, and that is largely because Russell Wilson has been showing up this season.

Wilson is currently ranked 8th among quarterbacks right now after completing 97 passes for 1,141 yards and 8 touchdowns with absolutely no interceptions to his name this season.

Also credit the Seahawks’ 8th ranked defense that has kept opponents to just 22.2 points per game, something that should come in handy against a Rams team that allows opponents to score an average of 26 points per game.

1) 3-1 Green Bay Packers at 3-1 Dallas Cowboys

How to Watch Packers vs Cowboys

What: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

When: Sunday, October 6, 2019, at 4:25 p.m. ET

Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

DraftKings – Packers +3.5, Cowboys -3.5

Money Line

DraftKings – Packers +155, Cowboys -190

Game Rivalry

This interesting NFC rivalry skipped last season, but before that, it has happened 36 times (including 8 postseason games) with the Packers winning 19 of those games and the Cowboys winning 17 of them.

Why the Favored Dallas Cowboys Will Win

Granted, both of these teams are coming off Week 4 losses, but the Dallas Cowboys have easily outranked the Green Bay Packers on both sides of the ball this season.

Whatever happened to the Cowboys down in New Orleans last week, where running back Ezekiel Elliott was held to just 35 yards and quarterback Dak Prescott held to no passing touchdowns and an interception will most likely not happen at home in Dallas in Week 5.

Dallas was embarrassed by their last performance and will be ready to beat up on the Packers in front of their hometown Cowboys fans, a beating that this Green Bay team (who couldn’t survive against the struggling Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau in Week 4) will succumb to in the end.

How the Underdog Green Bay Packers Could Surprise the World

As long as the Green Bay Packers have a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center (which they do), they can never be fully counted out of any matchup.

The Packers have receiving talent (Davante Adams and tight end Jimmy Graham) as well as a one-two punch on the ground (Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams) and new head coach Matt LaFleur has been busy figuring how best to balance out that powerful offensive attack.

Add to that coordinator Mike Pettine’s ever-improving T-10th ranked Packers defense (including new linebacker weapons Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith) and this team has a definite chance to pull off a surprise win in Dallas.

Read more on the Dallas Cowboys 2019-20 Postseason Odds.

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