Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal - Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

  • The north London derby is one of the Premier League’s most entertaining fixtures
  • However, there could be fewer goals than we have grown accustomed to on Sunday
  • Arsenal is in better form and it will fancy its chances of triumphing over its adversary

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What Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
Where Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
When Sunday, 12 July 2020, 11.30 AM EST
How to watch NBC Sports

Tottenham Hotspur should have had a penalty early on in Thursday’s meeting with Bournemouth. Josh King bundled into the back of Harry Kane from a corner, preventing the Spurs striker from reaching the ball. Had the spot-kick been awarded and then converted, it may have been a different game at the Vitality Stadium.

Yet the failure of VAR to intervene does not excuse Tottenham’s listless display for the rest of the match. Facing a Bournemouth side with the third-worst defensive record in the division, Spurs failed to land a single shot on target. Never before in Bournemouth’s Premier League existence has an opponent not forced at least one save from its goalkeeper.

Indeed, Eddie Howe’s was the team that created the better chances on the night, and it would have emerged victorious had Harry Wilson converted a late one-on-one opportunity. His miss means Spurs made it three clean sheets in four games, but that was scant consolation for supporters who have seen their team’s Champions League hopes vanish in recent weeks.

The mood at Arsenal is altogether more optimistic after a run of four games without defeat. Mikel Arteta took charge at the Emirates Stadium over a month after Mourinho succeeded Mauricio Pochettino at Tottenham, yet the Spaniard has done a much better job of refreshing his side and getting his ideas across. He could be rewarded with a derby-day victory on Sunday.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal Odds

Total goals Odds
Over 2.5 -134
Under 2.5 +107

Odds taken from DraftKings

It is not strictly true that the form book goes out of the window whenever rivals face-off, however often the cliche is repeated. Nevertheless, the best betting market for this game is probably total goals rather than match-winner.

Tottenham’s matches since the restart have generally been low-scoring, while Arteta has taken steps to tighten up Arsenal’s defense since the defeats by Manchester City and Brighton and Hove Albion. With that in mind, under 2.5 goals is the way to go here.

Tottenham Left Wondering Whether It Made the Right Decision in November

When Pochettino was dismissed by Daniel Levy in November, many believed he had taken Tottenham as far as he could. That may well have been true, but the Argentinian has every right to feel hard done by eight months on. After the work he had done during his five-and-a-half-year tenure, Pochettino probably deserved the chance to get the club out of its rut.

Chairman Daniel Levy opted for experience in choosing his replacement, as Mourinho arrived for his third job in the Premier League. It has not gone well. A run of just two wins in its last eight games is concerning enough for Tottenham, but the most damning indictment of Mourinho’s tenure to date is that it is very difficult to discern any clear plan in what the team is trying to do.

All of which suggests that Spurs should have just stuck with Pochettino. True, the former manager’s relationship with certain players looked to have broken down, but a summer rebuild awaits anyway and the club would have been better off with Pochettino overseeing it.

Arsenal Looks in a Better Place as Arteta Plans for the Future

In contrast to Mourinho’s Tottenham, Arteta’s fingerprints can already be seen on this Arsenal team. Gunners fans will not be getting carried away just yet, and despite an upturn in results of late its eighth-place standing reflects how far a team that used to regularly challenge for the title has fallen.

Yet Arteta has a clear idea of where he wants to take this side, and his recent switch to a three-man backline is an example of a coach inspiring a turnaround with an astute tactical reconfiguration. The front three of Bukayo Saka, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looked sharp in the 1-1 draw with Leicester City, and it is notable that a defense which has been lambasted for much of the season has now conceded just once – and that after Arsenal had been reduced to 10 men against the Foxes – in 360 minutes of action.

This Encounter Could Buck the Trend of a Historically High-Scoring Fixture

The north London derby is probably the most consistently entertaining fixture in the Premier League. A 2-2 draw in September was typically engaging, and Arsenal’s 4-2 victory at the Emirates Stadium 18 months ago was one of the standout matches of last season.

Yet there are signs that this game might not follow suit. Five of Tottenham’s last six outings have featured two goals or fewer. Since Arsenal switched to its new formation, only one of its four games has featured more than two strikes, and that was against bottom-of-the-table Norwich City. Unusually for this contest, goals could be at a premium on Sunday.

Our Pick

Take the Under 2.5 option here – Tottenham and Arsenal’s recent games have not featured many goals and this derby could follow the same pattern.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]