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FC Juarez vs. Deportivo Toluca Prediction: Toluca as Top Playoff Spot Contenders

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Published March 7, 2024
8 min read
  • FC Juarez lost their fourth consecutive game in the Clausura 2024 season when they fell to a 3-2 defeat against Pachuca this past weekend  

  • Deportivo Toluca extended their unbeaten streak in the Clausura 2024 season to six games after the club pipped Tigres in the last match

  • When these two clubs met at Estadio Nemesio Diez last season, Toluca were on the wrong end of a 4-2 result against a prolific Juarez side

FC Juarez vs. Deportivo Toluca Odds

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Game result Odds
FC Juarez +250
Draw +270
Deportivo Toluca -108

FC Juarez vs. Deportivo Toluca Pick

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FC Juarez vs Deportivo Toluca Prediction

FC Juarez vs. Deportivo Toluca Predictions

Juarez has lost seven and drawn two in the first nine games of the season. The club is rooted to the bottom of the table and is at risk of finishing the current Clausura campaign without a single win. Juarez’s last win in Liga MX came in October, during the Apertura 2023 season against San Luis. Since then, Juarez have remained winless in 13 games, losing 11 and drawing two. The club showed fighting spirit in the last match but eventually lost 3-2 against Pachuca.

Toluca have established themselves as top playoff spot contenders after winning five, drawing four, and losing just one of their opening ten games of the current Clausura season. The ten-time Liga MX champions have dodged defeat in the last six league games, winning four and drawing two. In the last match, they received an advantage when Tigres were reduced to ten men just before the break. In the second half, the game turned on its head, and Toluca clinched all three points.

Considering the momentum of the two teams, it is easy to confirm Toluca as firm favorites in this encounter. Juarez showed resilience against a strong Pachuca side in the last game and almost took a point from the match but lost by the smallest margin. Toluca did beat Tigres, but the red card gave them the advantage. But these facts are not enough to balance the scales. Toluca will still have the upper hand and are expected to win this match.

Previous Meetings

Toluca have not enjoyed playing Juarez in Liga MX. The two clubs have met nine times, and Juarez have won five encounters, leaving Toluca with just a couple of victories. The remaining two matches have ended in stalemates.

When they met in Toluca’s backyard last season, these two teams put on a six-goal thriller for the spectators. Goals from Agustin Urzi, Sebastian Saucedo, Amaury Escoto, and Aitor Garcia helped the visitors nab a 4-2 win.

In four visits to Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez, Toluca have only won once. That victory came in the Apertura 2021 season. Oscar Ortega, Rubens Sambueza, and Alexis Pedro Canelo were on the scoresheet in that match as the visitors clinched a 3-1 victory on enemy territory.

Stalemates Will Be Like Wins for Juarez at This Juncture

Aiming for a win against one of the playoff contenders this season will be an ambitious goal for Juarez. No coach or players want to play for a draw, and Mauricio Barbieri will field the strongest possible side against Toluca with an aim to snatch all available points.

However, everyone associated with Juarez will know that a draw against Toluca will be like a win for the club, and they can use that result to snatch a win in the upcoming, lesser-challenging games. If Juarez aim for three points, they could get one. If they aim for one, they’ll get none.

New Signing Unimpressive After Getting First Start  

After making six appearances from the bench, Angel Zaldivar was finally given his first start for his new club against Pachuca. However, the striker was quite subpar in the final third.

The former Chivas striker lost ten duels in the match before he was taken off in the 77th minute. He attempted just one shot, which was blocked before it could go anywhere near the goal.

Goal Drought Finally Ends for Striker  

Aitor Garcia was frustrated after making no goal contributions in eight Liga MX appearances this season. The striker’s form dipped last season after he finished with just four goals in 15 games during the Apertura 2023 campaign.

In his ninth start this season against Pachuca, the Spaniard finally ended his long, excruciating goal drought. Garcia was involved in both goals against Pachuca, as he scored the first and assisted the second.

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Toluca Are Prolific in the Final Third  

Toluca’s goal tally at this stage of the Clausura 2024 season is the second-highest in the league. They have scored 21 goals in ten games, averaging a little over two goals per match. Their goalscoring rate is the second-best in the league, only behind Pachuca.

Sixteen of the 21 goals have come from open play, and three have come via goalkeeper Tiago Volpi, who has consistently converted penalties for the ten-time Liga MX champions. Winger Jean Meneses is the club’s top scorer, with four goals and three assists in ten games. 

The Visitors Desperate to End Their Barren Run on the Road  

At home, Toluca have a perfect record after winning all five games at Estadio Nemesio Diez. However, on the road, troubles are piling up for the club. Toluca are yet to register a win on the road this season.

Toluca has secured four draws in five away games and lost one. Their last away win in Liga MX came in July last year against Cruz Azul. Since then, the club has played 12 away games in the league, lost seven and drawn five.

Only One Injury Concern for Toluca

Coach Renato Paiva will be relieved to have no one apart from Robert Morales on his club’s injury list. The Paraguayan suffered a head injury in Toluca’s CONCACAF Champions Cup fixture almost three weeks ago.

Morales has scored one and assisted one in six appearances this season and will be back in the squad in a couple of weeks.

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How to Watch FC Juarez vs. Deportivo Toluca

  • Teams: FC Juarez vs Deportivo Toluca

  • Location: Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez

  • Time: Friday, March 8 at 10:10 pm ET

  • How to Watch: Univision, Telemundo, Fox Sports, ESPN, Vix and Sling TV

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Nikhil Kalro

681 Articles

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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