After disaster in Playoff opener, Kyle Larson heads for a favorite track.
A strong qualifying effort is an absolute essential at Watkins Glen.
Shane van Gisbergen seeks his second Cup win - at reasonable odds.
Odds taken from BetMGM Sportsbook. Place your bets at BetMGM and use our promo code WSNSPORTS to claim the bonus: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*
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Winner | Odds |
---|---|
Kyle Larson | +625 BET HERE |
William Byron | +725 BET HERE |
Tyler Reddick | +800 BET HERE |
Shane van Gisbergen | +800 BET HERE |
Chase Elliott | +900 BET HERE |
Christopher Bell | +1100 BET HERE |
AJ Allmendinger | +1300 BET HERE |
Michael McDowell | +1300 BET HERE |
Ty Gibbs | +1400 BET HERE |
Martin Truex Jr. | +1700 BET HERE |
Denny Hamlin | +1800 BET HERE |
Shane van Gisbergen to win the race at +800 via BetMGM Sportsbook
Daniel Suarez to finish in the top three at +525 via BetMGM Sportsbook
Austin Cindric to beat Ty Gibbs head-to-head at +200 via BetMGM Sportsbook
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Kyle Larson entered last Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoff opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway as the top seed in the 10-race postseason.
That status didn’t last long. On Lap 56, Larson’s No. 5 Chevrolet broke loose, shot into the outside wall in Turn 2 and sustained terminal damage.
As a result, Larson lost most of his Playoff edge. Now he’s just 15 points above the current cut line for the Round of 12, with two races left in the opening Round of 16.
Fortunately for Larson, the series is headed for a track where both he and Hendrick Motorsports have enjoyed enormous recent success. Larson won at Watkins Glen in 2021 and 2022. Teammate William Byron took the checkered flag last year.
With Chase Elliott prevailing in the 2019 and 2020 races, Hendrick has won the last five Cup events at the high-speed road course.
It’s our view that Larson will be strong again on Sunday. We just don’t think he’ll win the race, and we’re not enamored with his +625 price at BetMGM.
Hence, we’re looking elsewhere for the winner.
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Short and sweet - Success in time trials, leading to excellent track position, is vital to success at Watkins Glen International.
In all but two of the last 18 races at the 2.45-mile road course, the race winner has come from a starting position of seventh or better.
With passing exceedingly difficult, and opportunities limited, maintaining track position is critical. Accordingly, you can wait until Saturday’s time trials are over before placing your bets, or—better yet—try to determine beforehand who’s likely to qualify at the front of the field.
The Hendrick winners of the last five races, for example, have started from positions no worse than fourth in that span.
True, there may be more coming and going on Sunday with a softer tire from Goodyear, but qualifying still should be paramount.
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Even though New Zealander Shane van Gisbergen is the odds-on choice to win Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen, we didn’t pick him because his +135 odds via BetMGM are far too short in a 38-car field that includes several veteran Cup drivers.
But we have to consider van Gisbergen for Sunday’s Cup race at +800 via BetMGM, even though the driver of the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet has never raced at the Glen.
Van Gisbergen has won the last three road course races in the Xfinity Series. He won last year’s Chicago Street Race in his Cup debut.
We also note that high-speed Watkins Glen should suit him, as it did fellow Australian Supercars champion Marcos Ambrose, who won a pole and two Cup races in seven starts at the New York road course.
Ambrose also won four Xfinity races in five starts at the track, and van Gisbergen is cut from the same cloth.
Hence, he’s our pick to win on Sunday at the far more reasonable +800 price via BetMGM.
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What: Go Bowling at the Glen NASCAR Cup Series Race
Where: Watkins Glen International
When: Sunday, September 15, 3 p.m. ET
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