NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Curry Over and a Lakers-Timberwolves Playoff SGP

I went four-for-five on NBA playoff player props shared right here yesterday, and I’ve got five more you need to see for Wednesday.

The Milwaukee Bucks’ dramatic late-game collapse saw them lose to the Indiana Pacers, 4-1, while the Detroit Pistons forced a Game 6 at home by taking down the New York Knicks. The Denver Nuggets also took a commanding 3-2 lead over the Los Angeles Clippers behind Jamal Murray’s 43 points, while the Boston Celtics cruised past the Orlando Magic.

Wednesday’s two-game schedule includes two of the most-watched series of the first round as the Golden State Warriors will visit the Houston Rockets before the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves, both as elimination games.

Read our in-depth predictions for Warriors vs. Rockets and Timberwolves vs. Lakers.

Here are my top five NBA prop bets for Wednesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 30

Jalen Green Over 16.5 Points

Green scored less than 10 points in three of four games in this series and has mostly looked terrible. However, he scored 38 points in a “gotta-have-it” Game 2 at home, and he now finds himself going back to his Houston arena in a situation in which the Rockets simply have to win.

Green will never amaze with his consistency, or lack thereof, but he averaged 21 points per game during the regular season and is simply better than he’s shown himself to be in this series. This is a classic buy low, sell high situation, and I believe he will deliver, regardless of whether Houston wins or loses.

Gary Payton II Over 2.5 Rebounds

The 32-year-old is a trusted member of Steve Kerr’s rotation and went over this line in three of four games in this series, including the last two. He’s only 6-foot-2, but he can get up and often occupies areas more commonly associated with traditional big men.

The Rockets have been unstoppable on the boards in this series, which means Payton II will be under clear instruction to compete on the glass whenever he’s in for his minutes. The order has also been restored with Jimmy Butler back in the lineup and Jonathan Kuminga not playing any minutes, while Payton II averaged 16.3 per game.

Stephen Curry Over 25.5 Points

Steph had his first truly poor game of the postseason in Game 4, scoring 17 points and only managing three rebounds and three assists. He split the over/under on this line at two apiece but had gone over in five of seven up until his last outing.

With Curry ready to bounce back as his team looks to close out a tough, physical opponent on the road, and with Jimmy Butler still feeling the effects of his hard foul, I believe the chef will step up. Houston’s defense also hasn’t been as good as it was in the regular season despite the physical nature of the matchups.

Mike Conley Under 6.5 Points

Conley has not played much of a role in this series, even if he split the over/under with hits in Games 1 and 3. He only averaged 22.3 minutes, 5.0 points, and 2.5 assists per game as his teammates have been extremely efficient from the floor, and Anthony Edwards has really developed as a playmaker.

All that said, Conley’s lack of influence on the offense means he likely won’t get a ton of shots in Game 5, one I expect the Lakers to approach with a level of fervor and desperation on the defensive end. That should result in Conley going under this line and heading back home for a Game 6 in Minnesota.

Dorian Finney-Smith Over 7.5 Points

JJ Redick made it clear that he trusts Finney-Smith, playing him 41 minutes and the entire second half of Game 4. That only resulted in him scoring six points and going under this line, but he was still productive with eight rebounds and six assists.

Finney-Smith only went over this line one time in this series, but this is a do-or-die situation for the Lakers. I believe LeBron James will be more assertive on the offensive end, which should open up more three-point opportunities for Finney-Smith and the Lakers’ other role players.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+404) at FanDuel

-Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)

• LeBron James over 25.5 points: Speaking of LeBron, he went over in back-to-back games and posted 51/39/82 shooting splits in the series, and he doesn’t want to go home in the first round.

• Luka Doncic over 6.5 assists: Similar to the Finals last year, Doncic’s teams play worse when he isn’t finding assists, and he needs to get back to spraying the ball around.

• Anthony Edwards under 5.5 assists: Went over in three of four, but Minnesota’s offense has been very efficient, and I expect better defense from LA.

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