The NBA Finals return to Madison Square Garden for Game 4 on Wednesday evening, and I have my best Spurs vs. Knicks player props for the matchup ready to go.
A topsy-turvy beginning to the series saw the road team, most recently the Spurs, win each of the first three games. The Knicks are slight -1.5 favorites in Game 4, but the first week of the championship round has proven that the odds do not define what will happen.
Jalen Brunson is the leader in NBA Finals odds, although he was inefficient shooting the ball and logged as many assists as turnovers. Victor Wembanyama finally settled into the series in Game 3, but was given real problems by Karl-Anthony Towns at different points. These inconsistent performances will likely shift the overall NBA Championship odds.
Here are my top NBA Finals Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4 player prop picks and bets today for Wednesday, June 10.
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| Best NBA Player Props Today | FanDuel Odds | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds | -106 | San Antonio Spurs 47% |
| Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 Points | -112 | New York Knicks 54% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns Under 17.5 Points | -122 | New York Knicks 54% |
| Julian Champagnie Under 9.5 Points | -132 | San Antonio Spurs 47% |
| Landry Shamet Over 7.5 Points | +100 | New York Knicks 54% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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Wembyanyama played 38, 40, and 39 minutes in the first three games of the series, yet he only cashed the over one time in Game 1. His 11.5-rebound average and past history with the Knicks — which includes going over twice in three regular season matchups — give me the confidence to take his over tonight.
Mitchell Robinson has been largely unplayable in this series, and the Knicks only shot 42.8 percent from the floor in the Finals, meaning there have been plenty of rebounding opportunities. The Spurs essentially need to win to still be in this series, which means a great effort is needed from Wembanyama tonight.
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It’s going to be difficult for me not to take Brunson to go over his number in this series for several reasons. First, despite being horribly inefficient as a shooter, he went over in two of three games, thanks to his taking 27 field goals per game in the Finals.
A return to Brunson’s usual level of efficiency will almost guarantee that he hits the over, thanks to his shot volume. The Spurs also seem to have adjusted and are willing to play Brunson more straight-up than they did, meaning he’s getting more opportunities to shoot instead of being forced to swing the rock.
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Towns was a relative no-show in Game 3, only scoring 11 points on 10 shots, after he’d been the Knicks’ best player in Games 1 and 2. The issue is that while he seemingly holds the keys to the series, the Knicks’ development into an offensive juggernaut coincided with his taking fewer shots than he was accustomed to.
Towns took 15, 12, and 10 field goals in the Finals so far, which is not enough volume to comfortably expect him to beat his scoring total. He’s also been known to be inconsistent against elite competition, and with Wembanyama having officially arrived in the series, it could be tough for Towns in tonight’s Spurs vs. Knicks player prop market.
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Champagnie has a ton to offer the Spurs in this series, but he’s been made replaceable by the elite impact of rookie Dylan Harper off the bench. Some of the Spurs’ defensive struggles have come when Champagnie was switched onto Brunson, and Harper is a much better fit for that assignment.
The 24-year-old scored 16, eight, and 12 points in the series, and has been productive from three, making 3.3 attempts per game on 45.5 percent shooting. That said, he only got to play 27 minutes in Game 3 and could have an even shorter leash if his shot isn’t falling.
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The reason that the Knicks moved away from playing Mitchell Robinson in this series is that they’ve found their most success when they had five shooters on the floor and could force Wembanyama to rotate to the three-point line. Shamet was on first from deep in the last two series and made three threes in Games 1 and 2, earning him a spot in the Finals rotation.
Although he only scored three points in Game 3, he put up 13 in the two matchups immediately before that. He took 9.7 shots and 6.7 threes per game in the Finals, which is enough volume to get over this number.
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