NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Rockets vs. Warriors Props and SGP

Elimination games are the backbone of any postseason, and I’ve got five player prop bets to watch out for ahead of tonight’s matchup.

The Golden State Warriors will look to oust the Houston Rockets from the playoffs when they meet for Game 6 on the West Coast tonight. Houston won Game 5 and scored their second 15-point win of the series, both higher than any margin produced by the Dubs. 

This comes one night after the New York Knicks advanced past the Detroit Pistons in six games and the Los Angeles Clippers forced a Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets.

Here are my best player props for the Rockets vs. Warriors Game 6 showdown on Friday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, May 2

Jalen Green Under 4.5 Rebounds

Allow me to be fair and say that Green went over in three of five games in this series and had eight rebounds in his last game. However, he’s not someone who regularly contributes to games in ways outside of scoring, and the Warriors should have all the reason in the world to play with effort and intensity to avoid a Game 7.

The Dubs held Green to three rebounds the last time he played in the Chase Center, and he only averaged 4.6 rebounds per game for the year. This should be a slow-paced, low-possession game, leading to fewer rebounding opportunities and helping Green to cash the under.

Jimmy Butler Under 5.5 Assists

Butler has not looked quite like himself since he returned to the lineup following his nasty fall in Game 2. He had 27 points, six assists, and five rebounds in his first game back but looked gimpy, and he only had eight points, five rebounds, and two assists in his most recent appearance.

Butler split the over/under in this series, but neither he nor his teammates had any kind of scoring rhythm in their last game. The Rockets have found a source of hope and have a terrific defense, even if they’ve struggled to limit the Warriors’ assists in this series.

Quinten Post Over 1.5 Threes

Post cashed the over in two of five games in the series, making 1.4 of 4.4 (31.8 percent) attempts per game. While that isn’t very efficient, it shows that he’s committed to taking his long-range shots and that the Rockets are willing to give him those opportunities to play tight defense on Stephen Curry and Butler.

Post barely got to play in Game 5 as he and the other important players were benched amid a blowout. He’s on the court almost exclusively to take three-pointers, and since Houston allowed the second-most made threes per game on 35.7 percent shooting, I think there’s real value here at positive odds.

Amen Thompson Under 3.5 Assists

Thompson is coming off the best game of his young playoff career, in which he had 25 points, six rebounds, three assists, five steals, and three blocks. However, the key number there is three for assists, which means he cashed the under.

Thompson is now three-for-five on unders in this series, a testament to the Warriors’ defense and their ability to hold the Rockets to the third-fewest assists per game among playoff teams. Houston lost both road games in this series already, and if Golden State’s defense is locked in, it will be very difficult for Thompson to claw his way to the over.

Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds

Green only had one rebound in the Warriors’ Game 5 no-show and went under this line in three of five games in the series. The counterargument is that he went over in both home games, coming down with eight boards to help lead his team to wins in both instances.

The Warriors know that they don’t want to sacrifice a 3-1 lead to a road Game 7 in a few days, and I believe Green will play with as much intensity as he can muster. That should result in him climbing over this line, which is still fairly low for a playoff performer with his level of experience.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+419) at FanDuel

-Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-5.5)

• Buddy Hield under 2.5 threes: Went under in three of five games and did not make a three in his last outing, plus he’s shooting 33.3 percent from three in the series.

• Alperen Sengun 10+ rebounds: Went over in three of five games including both in San Francisco, and he should play heavy minutes in an elimination game.

• Stephen Curry over 5.5 assists: His injured thumb could give him issues shooting the ball, but he went over in three of his last four games.

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