NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Nikola Jokic & More Picks for Thursday

The new NBA season is off to a wild first week, starting with a double-overtime thriller in the first game of the year and continuing into numerous 40-point performances from the league’s brightest stars.

Victor Wembanyama stole the spotlight on Wednesday with 40 points and 15 rebounds on 71.4 percent shooting in a 33-point win over Cooper Flagg’s Dallas Mavericks. Anthony Edwards, Luka Doncic, and Tyrese Maxey joined Wemby in the 40-point club, while rookie third-overall pick VJ Edgecombe dropped 34 in his professional debut.

With there being an apparent lack of league-wide rust, let’s take a look at the best player props for Thursday.

Here are my favorite NBA player prop picks for Oct. 23.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, October 23

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Chet Holmgren Over 7.5 Rebounds (-148) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Holmgren only had seven rebounds in 39 minutes during the double-overtime win over the Rockets, but Houston often deployed a double-big lineup. He’ll be in for the opposite treatment against the Pacers, whose starting center, Isaiah Jackson, is 6-foot-9, and tore his Achilles one year ago.

Isaiah Hartenstein was played off the court several times during last year’s Finals matchup with the Pacers, but Holmgren was a constant. He averaged 8.9 boards per game during that series, and without Tyrese Haliburton available to create efficient looks for his teammates, Holmgren should be around to clean up missed shots.

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Bennedict Mathurin Over 1.5 Threes (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This is a huge year for Mathurin, who will have a great chance to have his hands on the controls of the Pacers’ offense with Haliburton sidelined by his injury. He only averaged 1.4 threes on 34 percent shooting last year, but he could easily average seven three-point attempts per game this time around.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a phenomenal defense, and Mathurin only went over this line twice in the Finals during the summer. That said, he went 2-5 from deep the only time he played more than 30 minutes in the series, and I expect him to be eager to get shots up.

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Cam Johnson Under 2.5 Threes (-154) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Johnson is a career 39.2 percent three-point shooter who is about to get more open looks than he’s ever received thanks to his teammate, Nikola Jokic. He made 2.8 threes per game for the Brooklyn Nets last year and is taking the place of Michael Porter Jr. as the Nuggets’ starting small forward.

Despite the massive potential for Johnson and the Nuggets, Denver is a slow-paced team that doesn’t take tons of threes. The Warriors also typically have a strong perimeter defense and held the Lakers to just 8-32 (25 percent) in their season opener on Tuesday.

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Al Horford Over 1.5 Threes (+158) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Horford went 1-4 from downtown in his Warriors debut during their win over the Lakers. However, he still looked like a threat to get his shots up from downtown, and the Warriors will encourage anyone on their team to take as many threes as they can.

The Nuggets’ perimeter defense has been suspect in recent years, and Jokic doesn’t want to be out on the perimeter chasing shooters. Horford made nearly two threes per game last year and is a career 37.7 percent shooter from deep, and these are very enticing odds.

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Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jokic has given the Warriors everything they can handle in recent years, scoring at least 32 points in four straight regular season games. Horford gives them a new defensive option, but Draymond Green is too small, and Quinten Post is too weak to disrupt his rhythm.

Jokic averaged 29.6 points per game last season and will be as fresh as ever as he enters a new season. It’s never a bad time to bet on the best player in the world, which is Jokic, until further notice.

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