NBA Player Props and Best Bets: LaMelo Ball, Deni Avdija & More Play-In Tournament Picks for Tuesday, April 14

The first day of the NBA Play-In Tournament has arrived, and I have my best picks for the Tuesday action around the league.

Kicking off the start of the 2025-26 NBA postseason will be the Charlotte Hornets (-5.5) and the Miami Heat, as well as the Phoenix Suns (-3.5) and the Portland Trail Blazers. 

Winners of the 7/8 games will qualify for the full playoff; winners of the 9/10 games will advance to play the losers of the 7/8 games; and the winners of those matchups will become the eighth and final seed on each side of the playoff bracket.

Without further ado, these are my top five NBA player prop picks and bets for day one of the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday, April 14.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, April 14

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LaMelo Ball Under 22.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

LaMelo closed the regular season averaging 25 points on efficient splits in April, although he split the over/under at this number at three apiece. He scored at least 20 points in all three regular-season matchups with the Heat, although he also went under in two of their three encounters.

Erik Spoelstra has had a few days to scout the Hornets and will have plans to disrupt their offense, which starts by taking Ball out of his rhythm. This is also Ball’s first taste of playoff basketball in his professional life, and it’s against a team that is all too familiar with participating in the Play-In Tournament.

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Tyler Herro Over 4.5 Rebounds (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Herro snatched eight and nine rebounds in two matchups with the Hornets, both of those coming in March. He also averaged 4.8 rebounds per game for the year, although he went under in six of his last eight outings. 

The Hornets are one of the best teams in all of basketball when it comes to limiting their opponents’ rebounding, but Herro proved that he can have a strong output on the glass against this same opponent. He could also feasibly play more than 40 minutes in tonight’s do-or-die matchup, potentially giving him even more opportunities to get over this number.

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Davion Mitchell Under 5.5 Assists (+108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The postseason is the time when games slow down, possessions are extended, and box scores generally start to plummet. Mitchell averaged 6.5 assists per game for the year and went over in four of his last five, but that simply doesn’t directly translate to playoff production.

Mitchell hit the over in three of four games with the Hornets, but Charlotte allowed the second-fewest assists per game over their last 15 outings. Mitchell’s primary job will be to try to take Ball out of the game, and if he can’t find success in doing so and isn’t knocking down his shots, he might find himself on the bench.

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Deni Avdija Under 24.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Avdija averaged 24.2 points per game for the year and went over this number in six straight to close the season. However, he did so by averaging nearly 10 free throws per game during those contests, which lines up with him averaging the second-most free throws during the regular season.

Avdija has never been in the playoffs, and he’s about to experience the infamous “playoff whistle” that does not reward flopping to the same degree as the regular-season whistle. He only took four free throws in his lone matchup with the Suns, and, to no surprise, went under with 19 points against a defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points per game.

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Dillon Brooks Over 3.5 Rebounds (-152) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I’d normally never bet Brooks on this line for this value, but the finality of winning and losing Play-In Games should result in him playing a ton of minutes, assuming that tonight’s matchup is competitive. That leads me to the over, seeing as he went over in five of eight regular-season games in which he played at least 35 minutes.

The Trail Blazers ranked 11th in rebounds allowed per game and are pretty strong on the glass, but Brooks has been in the playoffs and will have more energy to expend elsewhere on the court with Devin Booker and Jalen Green handling the offense. He split the over/under in two matchups with Portland, but I like his prospects tonight.

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