The final day before the NBA playoffs is here, and I have my top five player prop picks ready to go for the Friday Play-In Tournament.
Tyrese Maxey starred for the Philadelphia 76ers, posting 31 points and six assists as they took down the Orlando Magic to earn the seventh seed in the playoff bracket. Stephen Curry also came up clutch with 35 points in the nightcap, advancing the Golden State Warriors past the Los Angeles Clippers for one final do-or-die matchup.
Tonight’s schedule will see the Charlotte Hornets go on the road to face the Orlando Magic, before the Warriors will pay a visit to the Phoenix Suns.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for the Play-In Tournament on Friday.
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| Best NBA Prop Bets Today | Odds | Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonuses at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball Under 8.5 Assists | -122 | CLAIM HERE |
| Kon Knueppel Over 2.5 Threes | -144 | CLAIM HERE |
| Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 Points | -130 | CLAIM HERE |
| Stephen Curry Over 27.5 Points | -104 | CLAIM HERE |
| Dillon Brooks Under 16.5 Points | -114 | CLAIM HERE |
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There are a multitude of reasons that I am rolling with this pick. One of them is that Ball went under in all three matchups with the Magic this season, the most recent of which came on March 19.
Another is that the Magic allowed the eighth-fewest assists per game in the entire league, and considering the Hornets like to play at a slow pace, that could create fewer opportunities against a defense that has been strong in that regard. Finally, this is a scrappy, season-on-the-line style of game, one that usually hinges on inefficiency and lower assist totals.
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A lot is being made of Knueppel, a rookie, going 0-6 from three on Tuesday after he led the entire NBA in three-pointers made during the regular season. My response? He’s a rookie, so who really cares, and who can fairly hold him to a high standard in his first taste of professional postseason action?
Knueppel made 3.4 threes per game on 42.5 percent shooting over the course of the season. He was benched down the stretch on Tuesday, but he will be right back in the starting lineup and on track to play at least 30 minutes, assuming he doesn’t go uncharacteristically cold from the field again.
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Look, there was a lot not to like… or to detest… from Banchero’s performance against the 76ers, which he finished by going 7-22 (31.8 percent) from the field for 18 points. He still split the over/under at three apiece in his last six games, although he did manage to go under in all four matchups with the Hornets this season.
The way that I see it, Banchero is going to take a lot of shots, regardless of the situation or how the game plays out. The Hornets allowed the Miami Heat to shoot 48 percent from the field and 39 percent from three, and Banchero can be as inefficient as he wants so long as he has a high enough shot volume to help him over this number.
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One of the scariest figures in basketball history is Stephen Curry in a single-elimination-style matchup. He just poured in 35 points with seven made threes against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, and he now has to lead his team to a victory to earn a spot in the playoffs.
Curry saw the Suns three times this season and went over in two of them, scoring exactly 28 points in both of those. The Suns were right in the middle of the league in average points allowed per game, but Curry should take a ton of shots with his team’s season riding on his shoulders.
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Brooks scored 20 points in Tuesday’s Play-In loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, although he only took 10 shots despite playing 37 minutes. That represents him falling down the pecking order in the Suns’ offense, with Devin Booker and Jalen Green both clearly established ahead of him.
Draymond Green should spend a decent amount of time matched up with Brooks after he did a number on Kawhi Leonard on Wednesday. Brooks went under this line in five of seven games since he worked his way back from an injury, so although he went over in all three meetings with the Warriors, I’m expecting him to finish below this number.
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