Five days into the NBA Playoffs and I’m yet to have a losing day—even better, I’m back to share another selection of my favorite picks for the Thursday playoff games.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went for 37 points, nine assists, and five rebounds as the Oklahoma City Thunder took a 2-0 lead over the Phoenix Suns last night. Cade Cunningham also dropped 27 points, 11 assists, and six rebounds in a hard-fought defensive effort against the Orlando Magic, helping the Detroit Pistons tie the series at 1-1.
There are three games later tonight, including the New York Knicks against the Atlanta Hawks, the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Toronto Raptors, and the Denver Nuggets against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for the NBA playoffs on Thursday, April 23.
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| Best Home Run Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum Over 19.5 Points | -110 | Atlanta Hawks 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds | +102 | New York Knicks 52% |
| James Harden Over 2.5 Threes | -132 | Cleveland Cavaliers 59% |
| Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points | +100 | Denver Nuggets 55% |
| Ayo Dosunmu Under 1.5 Threes | -148 | Minnesota Timberwolves 46% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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McCollum scored 26 and 32 points to kick off the series after he averaged 18.7 points in 41 games with the Hawks during the regular season. Most people would interpret this as a sign that he’s about to regress and cash the under, but I view it entirely differently.
The young Hawks are on a playoff stage that they aren’t familiar with, while McCollum is one of the few players on their roster that are comfortable in this environment. That was evident from his performance down the stretch in Game 2, and seeing as he shot nearly 55 percent from the field in the series, I believe he can cash another over later tonight.
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Towns grabbed exactly eight rebounds in Game 1 and Game 2 after he finished second in the league in rebounding with 11.9 per night. He had 12 rebounds when the Knicks met the Hawks on April 6 and also had 15 boards in his only other regular-season matchup with this opponent.
The Hawks have often looked to be at their best when playing with tempo, and that type of approach can create more possible rebounding opportunities. Towns hasn’t had a breakout game in this series just yet, and I could easily see that happening tonight.
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Harden is renowned for being one of the biggest playoff chokers among the select crop of historically great players. He passed each of his first two sets in a Cavaliers jersey, scoring 22 and 28 points on efficient shooting in the first two games of the ongoing series with Toronto.
I believe that the Cavs are going to sweep the Raptors, if not win in five, and I haven’t seen Harden look uncomfortable at any point. He went over in each of the first two games while shooting 46.7 percent from beyond the arc, and with him taking nearly eight threes per game, he will get enough chances to hit the over again.
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Alright, we’ve put it off long enough. Rudy Gobert has been fantastic in the series thus far, holding Jokic to 24 and 25 points on an average of 48.7 percent shooting from the field and 21.4 percent from three, but my suspicions are that Jokic is about to explode later tonight.
The best players in the world can only be held down for so long before they respond. Jokic and company are heading on the road to Minnesota, with which they are intimately familiar, after dropping Game 2 at home, and I expect Jokic to look more like the guy who scored 35 and 56 points the last two times these teams met during the regular season.
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Dosunmu has given the Timberwolves great energy off the bench ever since he arrived from the Chicago Bulls near the trade deadline. He split the over/under and shot 44.4 percent from three in the ongoing series, but I expect him to side with the under on Thursday.
Dosunmu went under in four of six games to close the regular season and only made 1.5 threes per game, despite shooting 41.4 percent from beyond the arc with the Wolves. He doesn’t tend to take a bunch of threes, while the Nuggets held teams to the third-lowest three-point percentage (34.9) in the NBA.
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