The NBA Playoffs are returning for another day on Saturday, and after a red-hot start, I’m back to share my top player prop picks for the day’s action.
LeBron James rolled back the years and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, dropping 29 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists in the Los Angeles Lakers’ overtime victory against the Houston Rockets. Dylan Harper also came up clutch for the San Antonio Spurs sans Victor Wembanyama, going for 27 points and 10 rebounds in their win over the Portland Trail Blazers.
There are four games today, beginning with the Orlando Magic hosting the Detroit Pistons, and concluding with the Denver Nuggets facing the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Saturday, April 25.
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| Best Home Run Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham under 27.5 points | -102 | Detroit Pistons 54% |
| Chet Holmgren over 1.5 threes | +102 | Oklahoma City Thunder 78% |
| Jalen Brunson over 27.5 points | -106 | New York Knicks 53% |
| Nikola Jokic over 30.5 points | -120 | Denver Nuggets 51% |
| Julius Randle under 6.5 rebounds | +100 | Denver Nuggets 51% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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Cunningham has been electric scoring the ball in this series, putting up 39 and 27 points in the first two games. He hasn’t shot the three all that well, and he shot better than his season average from the field in each of the two outings.
Cunningham is, by nature, a pass-first player, but he’s been forced to take a lot of shots in this series. He’s more than capable of getting to the over, but I would expect the Magic to adjust their defensive structure to limit his shots, due to how effective he has been thus far.
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Holmgren deserves credit for his season and his performances in these playoffs, having made two and three threes in the first two games, and shot 41.7 percent from beyond the arc. The former second-overall pick has now gone over in five of six meetings with the Phoenix Suns across the regular season and playoffs.
The Suns were actually a top-five team in basketball when it came to limiting their opponents’ threes, but they’ve been totally incapable of slowing down the high-powered Oklahoma City Thunder. Holmgren will get his looks with how much pressure Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts on the defense, and he just needs to knock down open shots.
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Brunson and the Hawks are providing a referendum on having small guards in the league, with the Hawks taking advantage of his lack of size and defensive output to take a 2-1 series lead after they traded their small point guard, Trae Young, earlier this season. Brunson is now in a position of needing to score at least 30 points per night to balance out his defensive weakness.
The 29-year-old scored 28, 29, and 26 points in the first three games of this series on 42.3 percent shooting from the field. The Hawks are on the cusp of taking a near-insurmountable 3-1 series lead and are on their home floor, so I expect Brunson to empty the tank for his team.
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I wrongly took Jokic’s over in Game 3, although my reasoning was validated by him taking a whopping 26 field goals, of which he made an extremely uncharacteristic 26.9 percent. That was still his highest scoring output of the series, as he finished the game with 27 points.
Just like the Knicks, the Nuggets find themselves on the road and already trailing 2-1 in their series. Jokic knows this team well, and while Rudy Gobert has been outstanding on defense, it’s hard not to bet against the best player in the world doing what he has to do with his season hanging on by a thread.
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Randle had six rebounds in Game 3 after going for seven and nine in the opening two. He averaged 6.7 rebounds per game for the season and went over in three of four games during their regular-season series, which might leave you wondering why I’m taking his under.
Missed shots by opponents are generally the best rebounding opportunities for players, and I believe that tonight will be a Nikola Jokic masterclass. Gobert, Anthony Edwards, and others have also been active on the glass, and with those combined, I see Randle finishing with five or six rebounds and cashing the under.
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