I’m up more than 15 units in the NBA Playoffs betting five player props per day following another 5-0 day yesterday – don’t worry if you missed up until this point, because I’m back with more picks for Monday.
Victor Wembanyama dropped 27 points, 12 rebounds, and four steals yesterday in his first game back from a concussion suffered early in Game 2 to put the San Antonio Spurs up 3-1 over the Portland Trail Blazers. Jayson Tatum also had an excellent day with 30 points, 11 assists, and seven rebounds, as the Boston Celtics dominated the Philadelphia 76ers despite Joel Embiid showing out in his first minutes of the series.
There are three matchups on Monday, including the Detroit Pistons taking on the Orlando Magic, the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Phoenix Suns, and the Denver Nuggets matching up with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The last two are both potential closeout games.
Here are my top NBA Playoffs player prop picks and bets for Monday, April 27.
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| Best Home Run Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham Over 28.5 Points | -112 | Detroit Pistons 59% |
| Wendell Carter Jr. Under 7.5 Rebounds | +108 | Orlando Magic 43% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points | -112 | Oklahoma City Thunder 82% |
| Dillon Brooks Under 18.5 Points | -112 | Phoenix Suns 20% |
| Jaden McDaniels Over 17.5 Points | +100 | Minnesota Timberwolves 21% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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Cunningham might have to unexpectedly take over this series to power the Pistons to a win, now that they are down 2-1 and on the road for Game 4. The former first-overall pick scored 39, 27, and 27 points thus far, and he took 23 field goal attempts per game, 4.4 more than his regular-season average.
The Pistons’ leading man hasn’t gotten a ton of support from his teammates on the offensive end, and he played 39.3 minutes per game. He’s being entrusted with carrying the offense while getting a ton of shots and playing time, which sets up well for him to hit the over.
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Carter Jr. came up trumps with 17 rebounds in Game 3, outdueling Jalen Duren, with whom he has an interesting off-court relationship (feel free to research in your own time). Despite his excellent recent showing, he cashed the under in the first two games of the series and averaged 7.4 rebounds per game for the year.
The Pistons ranked third in rebounds allowed per game and are typically excellent with the aforementioned Duren, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, and others. Duren has been quiet in this series, and it’s about time he had a breakout game with his team on the cusp of a 3-1 deficit.
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The Suns, who are down 3-0, never had a real chance in this series. Their closest loss came by 11 points in Game 3, and they just allowed Gilgeous-Alexander to go for 42 points and eight assists on 83.3 percent shooting from the field in Game 3.
The MVP frontrunner went over in the last two games after he averaged 31.1 points per game for the year. He played 38 minutes in consecutive games and should come close to that number again if Game 4 isn’t a blowout, which means that he’s just going to spend too much time on the court to not have a strong chance of going over this number.
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The Suns wasted back-to-back 30-plus-point games on better than 50 percent shooting from Brooks, making it nearly impossible to see them being competitive in Game 4. Brooks is yet to score less than 18 points in this series, but it’s also highly unlikely he replicates his Game 2 and Game 3 performances.
Jalen Green and Devin Booker can be expected to empty the tank tonight, which could leave fewer available shots for Brooks. The Thunder are typically a strong defensive outfit and have players who can guard Brooks, which is why I’d bank on him going under.
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McDaniels quietly averaged 18.7 points on 51.8 percent shooting from the field and 43.3 percent from three in 16 games without Anthony Edwards on the floor this season. He went under in three of four games in this series, but his shot diet should change dramatically without Edwards available for action.
The 25-year-old called out the Nuggets’ lack of defense earlier in the series, and he now has a chance to take charge of the Timberwolves’ offense in a road closeout game. He scored 20+ points in three of their four regular-season matchups and should get plenty of looks at the basket, especially with Donte DiVincenzo having also been lost to an injury.
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