NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama & Timberwolves vs. Spurs Picks for NBA Playoffs on Tuesday

After a perfect 5-0 day yesterday, I’ve returned to share my best Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 5 player prop picks in the NBA Playoffs today. 

Donovan Mitchell went berserk in the second half yesterday, finishing with 43 points as the Cleveland Cavaliers leveled their series with the Detroit Pistons at two games apiece. Later in the evening, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 35 points and had eight assists to help the Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the conference finals by sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers.

Tonight’s Timberwolves vs. Spurs showdown comes immediately after Victor Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in Game 4 and the Wolves tied the series at two games each, heightening the anticipation for the next matchup.

Here are my best NBA Playoffs player prop picks and bets for Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 5 on Tuesday, May 12.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 12

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Victor Wembanyama Over 26.5 Points (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I called a Wembanyama over in Game 4, only for him to get ejected with four points in the second quarter. Knowing the basketball purist that Wembanyama is, and assuming that he will feel responsible for losing the team for his game, I expect him to bring as much intensity as he can to Game 5.

Wemby is fed up with the Timberwolves, as evidenced by him elbowing Reid in the neck, and that could lead to him taking a ton of shots in tonight’s game. He scored 39 points in his last full appearance in Game 3 and went over in both regular-season meetings with the Wolves, not to mention that he’s returning to his home court.

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Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points (-136) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Castle’s most important contribution can come on the defensive side of the basketball, as the Spurs still appeared to have Game 4 won without Wemby until Anthony Edwards went nuclear in the fourth quarter. Castle scored 20 points and split the over/under in four games, although one over was when Wemby left prematurely, and the other was in a 38-point blowout victory.

With an expected regression to the mean and the heightened defensive activity of the playoffs, I don’t expect Castle to have an explosive scoring night. He really needs to exert as much energy as he can on defense, but he’s one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, so I am going to guess that he will.

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Anthony Edwards Under 6.5 Rebounds (-166) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I get that these aren’t the most attractive odds in the world, but let’s also be real with ourselves. Edwards is fighting through a knee injury and went under in three of four games in this series after averaging 5.0 rebounds per game for the season.

Role players tend to shoot better on their home court, which could also mean that there will be fewer rebounding opportunities if the Spurs knock down their shots. Edwards also looked exhausted in the fourth quarter of Game 4 after carrying the team’s offense, so I don’t know how much he’ll have in the tank for the glass.

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Julius Randle Under 3.5 Assists (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Randle’s usage has gone down considerably in this series, and when he gets the ball, he’s been played straight up, even by San Antonio’s smaller guards and wings. He is four for four in going under this number despite averaging 5.0 rebounds per game during the regular season.

I can’t quite express much else other than I’ve watched the games, and Randle is consistently finding himself in situations where he is positioned to shoot, not pass the ball. He split the over/under during the regular season, but he’s quite clearly favored the under in the playoffs.

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Dylan Harper Over 11.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Harper, the second pick in the NBA Draft, has put forth really, really, really impressive performances in these playoffs. He scored 24 points on 72.7 percent shooting, grabbed seven rebounds, and played tight defense in Game 4, all of which will have certainly caught the eye of coach Mitch Johnson.

De’Aaron Fox is still the team’s starting point guard, but he hasn’t played very well and has been inefficient shooting the ball in this series. He also now has an ankle issue, all of which could result in Harper getting an increase in minutes after he split the over/under for points in the first four games.

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