A pair of Game 7s headline Sunday’s NBA Playoffs schedule, and I have my best player prop picks from the impending matchups.
The Philadelphia 76ers shocked the Boston Celtics last night, recovering from a 3-1 deficit to beat the C’s in the playoffs for the first time since 1982. Joel Embiid led the way with 34 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists, while Tyrese Maxey had 30 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists.
Today’s schedule will see the Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic as they also look to make a 3-1 comeback, before the Toronto Raptors visit the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for the NBA Playoffs on Sunday, May 3.
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| Best NBA Player Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham over 28.5 points | -130 | Detroit Pistons 75% |
| Desmond Bane over 18.5 points | -130 | Detroit Pistons 75% |
| Paolo Banchero under 5.5 assists | -130 | Detroit Pistons 75% |
| Donovan Mitchell over 2.5 threes | -146 | Cleveland Cavaliers 72% |
| Scottie Barnes under 7.5 assists | +116 | Cleveland Cavaliers 72% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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Cunningham has consistently emptied the tank in this series, taking at least 23 shots in all but one game and averaging 23 shots per game for the series. He split the over/under at three games apiece, but he went over in two of three games on his home floor.
The Pistons rallied from a 24-point deficit to win Game 6 and now have all of the momentum in the world going into the do-or-die Game 7. Cunningham could play close to 45 minutes and will get tons of shot opportunities, putting him on a strong trajectory simply because of the volume he will enjoy.
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I’ve always been a fan of Bane’s game, and there’s been a noticeable shift in his mindset in the playoffs. He went from taking 14.7 shots per game during the regular season to 16.7 per game in the playoffs, although he only went over in two of six games thus far.
Bane would’ve gone over in nearly all of the games had he not shot a woeful 38 percent from the floor in this series, 10.4 percentage points below his regular-season standard. He has the most playoff experience on Orlando and has been a willing shooter throughout the series, so I expect him to be their leader this afternoon.
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Banchero went over in four of six games in this series, including each of the last two. However, he is not a natural playmaker, and the Magic’s offense is tight, as evidenced by them going 4-37 (10.8 percent) from the field and scoring 19 total points in the entire second half of Game Six.
The Pistons allowed fewer assists than every team in the league during the regular season, and the Magic are far from an offensive juggernaut with great spacing and offensive systems. Banchero is a shooter, not a playmaker, and I’m willing to back that by taking his under.
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There are no guarantees in sports betting, but I feel very strongly about this one. Mitchell took 8.5 threes per game in this series and went over in four of six contests while only shooting 35.3 percent from beyond the arc, which is below his usual standard.
As the best player on the team and in an elimination matchup, Mitchell should be expected to take a ton of shots. He just put up 26 in Game Six and now transitions back to his home floor, where he is three-for-three with overs in the series, with the chance to play more than 40 minutes of action.
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Barnes split the over/under in this series at three games apiece after he averaged 5.9 assists per game during the regular season. He’s coming off of games where he had 11 and 14 assists in 39 and 48 minutes of action, but despite that, I’m leaning toward his under.
The 24-year-old went under in two of three games on the road this series, and the games haven’t really slowed down all that much like they are expected to in elimination-style contests. I expect that to hit hard in this instance, while role players traditionally shoot worse on the road than they do at home, which could lead to fewer potential assists.
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