Best College Basketball Picks Today: Alabama Has Home Test Against Mississippi State

The two games we will highlight for our best college basketball picks article feature the second-ranked Duke Blue Devils versus the Miami Hurricanes and No. 24 Mississippi State versus No. 6 Alabama.

Which of these teams will win or, at least, cover the spread in these conference showdowns? Keep reading below to find out!

No. 2 Duke @ Miami Odds

PICK: Duke -22.5 at FanDuel

Duke has the second-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating (KenPom) and fires at an absurd 49% clip from the field and 38% from 3-point land.

But recently, the Blue Devils have been even more dominant. Look no further than their game against Illinois, in which they handed the Fighting Illini their worst loss in program history.

Duke’s highly efficient offense will face one of the nation’s worst defenses, as Miami allows opponents to shoot the sixth-highest effective field goal percentage.

It’s the perfect storm. A hurricane, if you will.

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Duke Prediction

The Blue Devils continue to chug along in conference play, slaughtering any team in their path. 

Most recently, Duke crushed a talented Illinois team by 43 points behind an incredibly balanced attack from its starting lineup. Every Blue Devils starter finished with double-digit points in that game.

Duke ranks first in adjusted efficiency margin (KenPom) and is the only team in the top five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies.

While the Blue Devils have received some criticism for having a weak schedule relative to other top teams, they have taken care of business, and that’s what matters.

Miami Prediction

It’s challenging to think that this Miami Hurricanes program is the same one that made a Final Four just two seasons ago. Sure, there have been several changes, but their fall has been sudden and shocking.

The Hurricanes have a 2-14 record in the ACC, which is nowhere near as strong of a conference as it used to be.

Miami’s biggest issue has been on the defensive end of the floor. 

Simply put, the Hurricanes don’t play defense. They rank 335th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot the country’s sixth-highest effective field goal percentage.

No. 24 Mississippi State @ No. 6 Alabama Odds

PICK: Mississippi State +8.5 at FanDuel

When these two teams battled earlier this season, the Crimson Tide secured a four-point road win; however, it took an absurd 15-for-31 shooting night from 3-point land to pull it off.

The Tide are an average 3-point shooting team, so I wouldn’t expect another elite shooting night, even though the Bulldogs boast a poor perimeter defense overall. 

Alabama shoots nearly 8% worse from deep at home than it does on the road, too.

Yes, Josh Hubbard put on a 38-point masterclass the first time around, but Mississippi State is a top-25 offense nationally; there are other players who can step up. 

Expect a more well-distributed effort from the Bulldogs this time.

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Mississippi State Prediction

A 7-7 record in SEC play is nothing to scoff at this year. 

However, the Bulldogs are still searching for their season-defining win, and it could come against this Crimson Tide team, which beat them by just four points the last time they played.

Josh Hubbard has put Mississippi State on his proverbial back this season, averaging just shy of 18 points per game, but it has not come with excellent efficiency.

Regardless, other players, including KeShawn Murphy, Claudell Harris Jr., and Riley Kugel, can step up on any given night and produce offensively.

Alabama Prediction

It should be unsurprising that the Alabama Crimson Tide are again one of the fastest teams in the country. 

Alabama ranks first in adjusted tempo and third in adjusted offensive efficiency. In short, unless you are an elite offensive team, good luck keeping up with the Tide.

Bama has dropped two of its past three games, and while an SEC regular-season title will be hard to secure with merely a few games remaining, it will still fight for better seeding in the conference and NCAA Tournaments.