After holding the Vegas Golden Knights scoreless in the last two games of their series, the Edmonton Oilers Stuart Skinner fell hard back down to reality as the Dallas Stars scored six goals in game one of the Western Conference Finals. With Calvin Pickard still out with an injury, the Dallas Stars are in a favorable position to light up the scoreboard for the second game in a row to help clear the over on the full game total.
After getting off to a slow start, the Dallas Stars offense woke up in the third period and scored a blistering five goals in the final 20 minutes. This mirrored what we saw in the regular season as the Stars finished the year ranked ninth in Expected Goals For in All Situations. With Stuart Skinner taking over starting duties while Calvin Pickard is out with an injury, expect the Stars offense to continue to thrive as the Edmonton goalie is averaging 3.39 Goals Against per game and a .872 Save Percentage in the playoffs.
On the other side of the ice, the Oilers offense will have the opportunity to match their output as they face off against a Stars back line who ranks 17th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.09 Expected Goals Against per game. Even with Jake Oettinger playing at a very high level, the Oilers high powered offense will apply enough pressure to keep him constantly scrambling in the crease. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game over by sprinkling smaller wagers on the alternate totals.
Even though Edmonton lost to Dallas 6-3 in game one, positive regression looms large over the Oilers heading into game two as they won 3.83-2.99 in Expected Goals. Their offense was the more consistent unit as they had no issue with pressuring the Stars net for the full duration of their contest. With the Stars back line struggling in coverage as their low mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates, expect the Oilers to hold on to their lead this time around and secure the win in regulation.
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