Who Will Become the 2028 Democratic Nominee? Presidential Election Prediction Markets Have Their Say

Kalshi users have determined that California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the frontrunner in odds to become the Democratic nominee in the 2028 U.S. Presidential election, ahead of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and numerous other challengers. Below is a full look at each candidate’s likelihood of winning the nomination, what the probabilities mean, and how Kalshi users can cast their predictions.

Kalshi 2028 Democratic Nomination Odds

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2028 Democratic presidential nominee

In 2028

• 17%
• 15%
• 14%
• 9%
• 6%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Top Democratic Nominee Candidates and Picks

Several faces atop the list of probabilities are either familiar or distinguished compared to their competitors. However, prediction market events can flip in an instant based on real-world events, including scandals, political breakthroughs, international events, new developments, policy changes, and other factors.

With that in mind, here are a few of the top candidates to secure the Democratic nomination for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election.

• Gavin Newsom (27%): A 58-year-old native of San Francisco, Newsom has held the title of the 40th Governor of California since Jan. 7, 2019. He was previously the Lt. Gov. of California and the Mayor of San Francisco and has been penned as the Democratic Party’s top choice in 2028 ever since the results of the 2024 election were revealed. President Donald Trump previously called him an “incompetent Governor.”

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (9%): A 36-year-old member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York’s 14th district, Ocasio-Cortez is often known by her initials “AOC.” She assumed office in January 1989 at 29 years old and would be the youngest president ever, if nominated and elected. Ocasio-Cortez is known for democratic socialist politics with a special focus on economic inequality.

• Kamala Harris (6%): Harris served as Joe Biden’s Vice President from 2020-24 and took over for Biden in the race to become the 47th President near the end of July in 2024, just several months before the election. A 61-year-old from Oakland, Harris was previously a U.S. Senator, the Attorney General of California, and the District Attorney of San Francisco before she became Vice President.

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Democratic Presidential Nomination Underdogs

• Pete Buttigieg (4%): Buttigieg, 44, was the U.S. Secretary of Transportation from 2021-25 during former President Biden’s administration. A native of South Bend, Indiana, and a Harvard grad, he served eight years as the Mayor of South Bend from 2012-20. He also became the openly homosexual man to launch a Democratic presidential campaign in 2019 before dropping out on March 1, 2020.

• Stephen A. Smith (2%): A lifelong sports reporter, analyst, and commentator, Smith recently forayed into the political landscape with frequent appearances on talk shows and by discussing political events on his podcast The Stephen A. Smith Show. The 58-year-old is still best known for hosting ESPN’s First Take, although he’s become an increasingly realistic candidate to compete for the nomination. President Trump previously said that he would “love to see him run” for president.

• Zohran Mamdani (2%): The 34-year-old Mayor of New York City was born in Kampala, Uganda, meaning that there would need to be an amendment to the current rules that only allow “natural-born citizens” to serve as U.S. President. A self-identified Democratic Socialist, Mamdani’s election as mayor was highly surprising and controversial due to many of his new ideas. At the time of writing, he’s largely maintained a hands-on style focused on progressivism and housing issues in NYC.

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The 2028 Presidential Election Process

The Presidential election occurs in November every four years and features the nominees from the Republican and Democratic parties, along with third-party challengers.

Nominees from each party are usually secured in the spring or summer before the election, and the official nominated at the National Convention in the late summer. Nominees are selected by voters at either primaries or caucuses in each state.

Despite having a consistent process, nominees can still be revealed at different times.

President Donald Trump clinched the Republican nomination in March 2024, and Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee until July, when he withdrew. Kamala Harris became the nominee after Biden dropped out. 

Regardless of when the nominees are announced, America will hold its Election Day on Nov. 7, 2028.

What Are Prediction Markets?

The best prediction markets are starkly different from sportsbooks in how they operate. Whereas sports betting involves a user wagering against odds set by the house, prediction users buy and sell contracts with prices based on real-time supply and demand.

These contracts are settled once the outcome of a future event is finalized. Prices for each contract are determined by the probability of the event occurring.

While sportsbook odds can be translated to implied probabilities, those always contain a vig, or an “edge” set by the sportsbook to ensure “the house always wins.” Prediction markets have charges such as transaction fees, but they don’t include the vig in their contract prices.

How to Read Prediction Markets

Prediction market prices and probabilities are simple. The listed probability is a reflection of the Kalshi user base’s belief in an event occurring. The price is the cost to purchase one contract, which always results in a $1 win or a $0 loss.

Customers can purchase multiple or fewer than one contract, depending on the price and their bankroll.

For example, if one contract for Gavin Newsom to win the Democratic nomination costs $.27, then a user who purchases exactly one contact would win $1 if Newsom secures the nomination, and $0 if he doesn’t.

A user who spends $5 on Newsom would have 18.52 contracts and would take home $18.52 if he won, and $0 if he didn’t.

Understanding Prediction Market Prices

Sports betting odds indicate favorites and underdogs through the use of + and -. Odds with negative odds values are usually the favored outcome and have a greater than 50 percent chance of occurring, while positive odds outcomes cannot have more than a 50 percent chance of happening.

+100 odds – which have a 50 percent implied probability – are effectively the “zero” of the sports betting number system.

At prediction markets, that number is 50 percent. Any outcome with a probability below this number has less than a coin flip’s chance of occurring and would be an underdog in two-outcome markets, while anything with a greater than 50 percent chance of occurring would be considered the favorite in a two-outcome market.

How do Prediction Contracts Settle

Purchasing a contract is a long-term prediction on a future event—in the case of the Democratic nominee market, the contract will settle once the Democratic nominee for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is confirmed. 

The total that will be paid for a contract (or each contract, if multiple are purchased) will be reflected by the purchasing, not the current price. 

For example, a contract purchased at $.07 that is up to $.90 when the market settles will still pay $1 per contract if the predicted outcome aligns with reality.

What Happened to Past Nominees?

The 2024 Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, was only the second woman to be nominated by one of the two major political parties. The other was Hillary Clinton, who was nominated in 2016.

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have put separate candidates from the same party into the Oval Office in consecutive elections since Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush in 1984 and 1988. In other words, if the President wasn’t already an incumbent, the party in power was opposite from the one that had just served for four years.

Democrats haven’t achieved the feat since John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Here’s a look at how each of the Democratic nominees over the last 50 years fared.

Where to Legally Trade Presidential Election Markets 

Platforms licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are eligible to offer prediction markets and contracts in America. Customers at these platforms will enjoy consumer protections guaranteed by the federal regulator.

While there are many prediction platforms on the market, a few of the top ones are Kalshi, Crypto.com, and OG.com.

Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. However, it has dealt with the brunt of legal challenges from state regulators, largely targeting its sports event contracts. It and all other prediction operators are also awaiting an upcoming public comment period regarding approved markets, the result of which could limit which contracts it is allowed to offer.

Crypto.com is legal in 41 states. It is not authorized to operate in Arizona, Illinois, New York, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, or Massachusetts. 

OG.com, owned and operated by Crypto.com, is legal in 48 states. Customers in Arizona and New York are not able to access the platform inside state lines.

Essentially, customers in nearly every state will have one or multiple operators to choose from.