Who Will Become the 2028 Democratic Nominee? Presidential Election Prediction Markets Have Their Say

Kalshi users have determined that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff are nearly tied frontrunners in odds to become the Democratic nominee in the 2028 U.S. Presidential election, ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom and numerous other challengers. Below is a full look at each candidate’s likelihood of winning the nomination, what the probabilities mean, and how Kalshi users can cast their predictions.

Kalshi 2028 Democratic Nomination Odds

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2028 Democratic presidential nominee

In 2028

• 17%
• 15%
• 14%
• 8%
• 5%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Top Democratic Nominee Candidates and Picks

Several faces atop the list of probabilities are either familiar or distinguished compared to their competitors. However, prediction market events can flip in an instant based on real-world events, including scandals, political breakthroughs, international events, new developments, policy changes, and other factors.

With that in mind, here are a few of the top candidates to secure the Democratic nomination for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election.

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Widely known by her initials "AOC," the 36-year-old currently represents New York’s 14th Congressional District. She first assumed office in January 2019 at just 29 years old, and if nominated and elected in 2028, she would become the youngest president in U.S. history. As a highly visible figure on the political left, Ocasio-Cortez has built her national platform on democratic socialist policies with a strong focus on combating economic inequality.

• Jon Ossoff: A 39-year-old former investigative journalist and documentary filmmaker, Jon Ossoff has served as the senior U.S. Senator from Georgia since flipping a crucial seat in early 2021. At the time of his victory, he made history as the youngest Democrat elected to the Senate since Joe Biden in 1973. Heading into the 2028 election cycle, Ossoff has emerged as a top contender for the Democratic presidential nomination across major prediction markets. He is widely recognized for his focus on government accountability, civil rights, and economic development.

• Gavin Newsom: Serving as the 40th Governor of California since 2019, the 58-year-old San Francisco native previously held office as the state's Lieutenant Governor and the city's mayor. Since the conclusion of the 2024 election cycle, Newsom has been widely positioned as the Democratic Party’s top choice to lead the ticket in 2028. He remains a frequent target of high-profile conservative criticism, with President Donald Trump previously labeling him an “incompetent Governor.”

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Democratic Presidential Nomination Underdogs

• Pete Buttigieg: A Harvard graduate and South Bend, Indiana native, the 44-year-old served as U.S. Secretary of Transportation during the Biden administration from 2021 to 2025. Before joining the cabinet, Buttigieg served an eight-year tenure as the Mayor of South Bend. He previously made history during the 2020 election cycle as the first openly gay man to launch a major Democratic presidential campaign.

• Stephen A. Smith: Best known as a lifelong sports media personality and the face of ESPN’s First Take, the 58-year-old analyst has recently waded into the political arena through frequent talk show appearances and commentary on The Stephen A. Smith Show. Smith has surprisingly emerged as a realistic outsider for the nomination, even drawing attention from Donald Trump, who remarked that he would “love to see him run.”

• Zohran Mamdani: The 34-year-old Democratic Socialist recently secured a surprising and controversial victory to become the Mayor of New York City. Currently maintaining a hands-on governing style focused heavily on progressive policies and urban housing reform, Mamdani would face a major constitutional hurdle to run for the White House: because he was born in Kampala, Uganda, his candidacy would require a constitutional amendment altering the nation's "natural-born citizen" requirement.

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The 2028 Presidential Election Process

The Presidential election occurs in November every four years and features the nominees from the Republican and Democratic parties, along with third-party challengers.

Nominees from each party are usually secured in the spring or summer before the election, and the official nominated at the National Convention in the late summer. Nominees are selected by voters at either primaries or caucuses in each state.

Despite having a consistent process, nominees can still be revealed at different times.

President Donald Trump clinched the Republican nomination in March 2024, and Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee until July, when he withdrew. Kamala Harris became the nominee after Biden dropped out. 

Regardless of when the nominees are announced, America will hold its Election Day on Nov. 7, 2028.

What Are Prediction Markets?

The best prediction markets are starkly different from sportsbooks in how they operate. Whereas sports betting involves a user wagering against odds set by the house, prediction users buy and sell contracts with prices based on real-time supply and demand.

These contracts are settled once the outcome of a future event is finalized. Prices for each contract are determined by the probability of the event occurring.

While sportsbook odds can be translated to implied probabilities, those always contain a vig, or an “edge” set by the sportsbook to ensure “the house always wins.” Prediction markets have charges such as transaction fees, but they don’t include the vig in their contract prices.

How to Read Prediction Markets

Prediction market prices and probabilities are simple. The listed probability is a reflection of the Kalshi user base’s belief in an event occurring. The price is the cost to purchase one contract, which always results in a $1 win or a $0 loss.

Customers can purchase multiple or fewer than one contract, depending on the price and their bankroll.

For example, if one contract for Gavin Newsom to win the Democratic nomination costs $.27, then a user who purchases exactly one contact would win $1 if Newsom secures the nomination, and $0 if he doesn’t.

A user who spends $5 on Newsom would have 18.52 contracts and would take home $18.52 if he won, and $0 if he didn’t.

Understanding Prediction Market Prices

Sports betting odds indicate favorites and underdogs through the use of + and -. Odds with negative odds values are usually the favored outcome and have a greater than 50 percent chance of occurring, while positive odds outcomes cannot have more than a 50 percent chance of happening.

+100 odds – which have a 50 percent implied probability – are effectively the “zero” of the sports betting number system.

At prediction markets, that number is 50 percent. Any outcome with a probability below this number has less than a coin flip’s chance of occurring and would be an underdog in two-outcome markets, while anything with a greater than 50 percent chance of occurring would be considered the favorite in a two-outcome market.

How do Prediction Contracts Settle

Purchasing a contract is a long-term prediction on a future event—in the case of the Democratic nominee market, the contract will settle once the Democratic nominee for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is confirmed. 

The total that will be paid for a contract (or each contract, if multiple are purchased) will be reflected by the purchasing, not the current price. 

For example, a contract purchased at $.07 that is up to $.90 when the market settles will still pay $1 per contract if the predicted outcome aligns with reality.

What Happened to Past Nominees?

The 2024 Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, was only the second woman to be nominated by one of the two major political parties. The other was Hillary Clinton, who was nominated in 2016.

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have put separate candidates from the same party into the Oval Office in consecutive elections since Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush in 1984 and 1988. In other words, if the President wasn’t already an incumbent, the party in power was opposite from the one that had just served for four years.

Democrats haven’t achieved the feat since John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Here’s a look at how each of the Democratic nominees over the last 50 years fared.

Where to Legally Trade Presidential Election Markets 

Platforms licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are eligible to offer prediction markets and contracts in America. Customers at these platforms will enjoy consumer protections guaranteed by the federal regulator.

While there are many prediction platforms on the market, a few of the top ones are Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, and OG.com. All of them offer contracts on the political betting market.

Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. However, it has dealt with the brunt of legal challenges from state regulators, largely targeting its sports event contracts. It and all other prediction operators are also awaiting an upcoming public comment period regarding approved markets, the result of which could limit which contracts it is allowed to offer.

Crypto.com is legal in 41 states. It is not authorized to operate in Arizona, Illinois, New York, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, or Massachusetts. 

OG.com, owned and operated by Crypto.com, is legal in 48 states. Customers in Arizona and New York are not able to access the platform inside state lines.

Essentially, customers in nearly every state will have one or multiple operators to choose from.