Underdog Promo Code WSNPLAY: Get $100 in Bonus Entries for MNF

How the NFL Season Is Shaping Up

Six weeks in, defense and special teams are deciding more games than offense. The Cardinals beat the Rams 18-16 without scoring a touchdown, kicking six field goals. The Browns beat the Ravens 13-10 behind a defense that held the Ravens to 235 total yards. The Titans beat the Colts despite being outgained by 213 yards, and the Broncos beat the Seahawks on Thursday with only 168 yards of offense.

Backup quarterbacks and injuries are the other big storyline. Caleb Williams returned for the Bears and went 30 of 36 for 305 yards, but the Eagles are starting Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, and the Buccaneers lost with Jalon Daniels in place of Baker Mayfield. The Giants benched Jameis Winston for J.J. McCarthy in the fourth quarter.

At the top of the standings, the Chiefs are 5-0 and the 49ers enter tonight at 5-0. At the bottom, the Chargers fell to 0-6 with an offensive line that has been decimated by injuries.

That's the backdrop for tonight. The 49ers lead the NFL in combined offensive and defensive EPA, while the Commanders have allowed a league-high 95 points in the second half. The 49ers' receiving group is thin, so I'm targeting touchdowns, tight end volume, and Jayden Daniels' legs.

Key Results From Week 6

Only tonight's game is left in Week 6, and Sunday again favored defenses. The Packers won on Sunday night, the Chiefs stayed perfect, and the Browns pulled even with the Ravens and Steelers at 4-2 in the AFC North:

1. Packers 23, Cowboys 13: Jordan Love threw for 276 yards and a touchdown to Matthew Golden, and the Packers won their third straight game.

2. Texans 34, Jaguars 31: C.J. Stroud threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in London, and Ka'imi Fairbairn won it with a 49-yard field goal.

3. Browns 13, Ravens 10: Deshaun Watson led his fourth game-winning drive of the season, tying Bo Nix for the NFL lead.

4. Cardinals 18, Rams 16: Chad Ryland made all six of his field goals, and the Rams lost kicker Blake Grupe to a knee injury in the first quarter.

5. Chiefs 22, Chargers 6: Kenneth Walker III ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns.

6. Bears 31, Falcons 23: Williams completed 83% of his passes in his first game back from a hamstring injury.

The Steelers also beat the Buccaneers 26-19 in overtime, and the Broncos beat the Seahawks 17-14 in overtime on Thursday night.

Best Underdog Picks for MNF (October 19, 2026)

Tonight's game is Commanders at 49ers at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN and ABC. The 49ers are 5-0 and favored by 7.5 points at home, while the Commanders are 1-3-1 after tying the Giants. Deebo Samuel is out for the 49ers, with Christian Kirk and Mike Evans both banged up. The Commanders are missing running back Croskey-Merritt, and Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are both expected to play. These are my three picks for this game.

1. Brock Purdy Passing Touchdowns: Higher

Purdy has thrown 13 touchdowns in five games, and his 9.2% touchdown rate is the highest in the NFL. He has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game this season, including two against the Seahawks last week. The Commanders have allowed a league-high 55 points in the fourth quarter, and Purdy is 2-0 against them in his career with four touchdowns and one interception.

2. George Kittle Receiving Yards: Higher

Kittle has a 20.6% target share, and that number should climb with Samuel out and the other receivers dealing with injuries. Last week he caught five of six targets for 24 yards against a Seahawks defense that took away the middle of the field. The Commanders allow 255 passing yards per game and rank 32nd in opposing QBR in the fourth quarter, so this is a much softer matchup.

3. Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards: Higher

Daniels ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in his first game back from an elbow injury. He scrambled on 18.9% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in Week 5. The Commanders' running backs are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and gaining under one yard before contact, so Daniels is the Commanders' best rushing threat.

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You can claim the $100 in Bonus Entries in four steps:

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Claim $100 in Bonus Entries with Code WSNPLAY

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