UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa - Odds, Predictions, Picks

The UFC returns to Meta APEX, Las Vegas ahead of the headlined featherweight matchup between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa. English fighter Allen has lost three of his last four bouts against top opposition but will be looking to rise back up the rankings as he faces No. 12 ranked contender Costa.

• Allen has struggled since finishing Calvin Kattar back in October 2022 with just one win to his name, and lost by unanimous decision against Jean Silva in his last outing

• “The Dalmatian” is on a six-fight win streak and secured a first-round win over Dan Ige in his most recent bout earlier this year

Here, you can check out the latest odds ahead of UFC Fight Night 276. You can find my analysis and predictions for each fight below.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa - Odds

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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa - Picks & Predictions

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa - Featherweight Division

• Our pick: Arnold Allen by Points (+160) at FanDuel

Choi Doo-ho vs. Daniel Santos - Featherweight Division

• Our pick: Daniel Santos by KO/TKO (+280) at FanDuel

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Juan Diaz (+220) at FanDuel

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards - Light Heavyweight Division

• Our pick: Modestas Bukauskas (-330) at FanDuel

Timmy Cuamba vs. Benardo Sopaj - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Timmy Cuamba (+136) at FanDuel

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa - Featherweight Division

This bout represents a great opportunity for both fighters. For Allen, it’s a chance to steady the ship, get back in the win column, and potentially move back into the Top 5 in the featherweight rankings. For Costa, it’s a chance to prove himself against an experienced fighter and enter the Top 10. It’s Allen who is the -154 favorite with FanDuel for this one.

“Almighty” is a top striker who will look to use a mix of his sharp boxing and excellent wrestling skills to win here. His impressive technical ability is what makes him such a dangerous opponent; he’s all about control and clean combinations. Costa, meanwhile, is a much more aggressive and chaotic fighter, but is known to use his kicks to help maintain distance.

Entering the Octagon on a six-fight win streak, “The Dalmatian” has the momentum to cause Allen problems this weekend. He’s finished both of his last two opponents early, including a clean head kick in the first round to defeat Morgan Charrière last December. That power is certainly one for Allen to watch out for, especially since Costa was the first to knockout Ige as well.

It’s been a while since Allen defeated top opposition so the pressure is on for the 32-year-old. That said, he does have the experience against elite fighters to help give him that edge. If Allen can maintain control, he’ll likely win this fight. However, if Costa can cause a bit of chaos and stop Allen from getting into a rhythm, he could gain the advantage.

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Choi Doo-ho vs. Daniel Santos - Featherweight Division

It’s been 17 months since Choi stepped foot inside the Octagon, but he does come into the bout on the back of successive wins over Bill Algeo and Nate Landwehr. Prior to that, he went four fights without a win. It’s Santos who is the -166 favorite with FanDuel, and he is looking to extend his four-fight win streak here against “The Korean Superboy”.

Brazilian Santos has racked up four wins since his UFC debut loss to Julio Arce. That’s seen him gain some steady momentum, and another victory could see him enter the Top 15 in the featherweight rankings. “Willycat” returned to the 145-pound weight class with a decision victory over Lee Jeong-yeong at UFC 315 before securing a second-round knockout triumph over Yoo Joo-sang at UFC 320 last October.

Choi will be hoping he’s overcome his knee injury that kept him out for the entirety of 2025, and he’ll have to shake off a bit of a rust following his absence. However, a three-year break did him the world of good after three consecutive losses from 2016 to 2019. The 35-year-old hasn’t lost since his defeat to Charles Jourdain almost seven years ago.

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Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz - Bantamweight Division

Wellmaker has just one loss on his record, but that did come in his last bout against Ethyn Ewing via unanimous decision. After finishing Adam Bramhald in Dana White’s Contender Series to earn himself a spot on the roster, Wellmaker went on to defeat both Cameron Saaiman and Kris Moutinho to open his UFC career. He’s the -295 favorite with FanDuel ahead of his matchup with debutant Diaz.

Diaz defeated Kwon Won Il with a spinning back elbow KO in Dana White’s Contender Series last October to secure his promotional debut here. He has just one loss on his record over his pro career, earning his stripes in Lux Fight League over the last three years. 

“Pegajoso” has never been finished throughout his career, and if he can make it through the likely early wave of hard hits from Wellmaker, his cardio could help win this fight.

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Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards - Light Heavyweight Division

“The Baltic Gladiator” is aiming to bounce back from a knockout loss to Nikita Krylov in January earlier this year, as Bukauskas squares off against Christian Edwards in a light heavyweight contest. Prior to his loss to Krylov, Bukauskas had won four consecutive bouts, defeating Marcin Prachnio, Raffael Cerqueira, Ion Cuțelaba, and Paul Craig. He finished three of those past opponents and is the -330 favorite with FanDuel for this Saturday.

Edwards is a late replacement for Brazilian fighter Rodolfo Bellato, who had to withdraw from the fight due to injury. The bout will now take place at a catchweight of 215 lbs due to the late change. Edwards is making his first-ever UFC appearance in Vegas this weekend, and enters the bout on the back of a second-round win over Glendal Whitney in Shamrock FC 373: Kansas City. “Pain” is also a former Bellator fighter, but he did lose his last three bouts with the promotion.

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Timmy Cuamba vs. Benardo Sopaj - Bantamweight Division

A bantamweight clash between Cuamba and Sopaj opens up the main card in Vegas on Saturday. Albanian fighter Sopaj is the -174 favorite with FanDuel for this bout, as “The Lion King” looks to follow up his first UFC victory after beating Ricky Turcios by unanimous decision.

“Twilight” got off to a tough start to begin his UFC career, dropping back-to-back losses to Bolaji Oki and Lucas Almeida. Nevertheless, Cuamba is now looking to extend his win streak to three after recording wins over Roberto Romero and Chango Lee.

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How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

• Location: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

• When: Saturday, May 16

• Time: 8:00 PM ET

• How: Paramount+