UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim - Odds, Predictions, Picks

Former UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad returns to the Octagon in Las Vegas this weekend to face Brazilian fighter Gabriel Bonfim. Muhammad enters this bout on the back of successive defeats, while Bonfim is looking to extend his four-fight win streak.

• It’s a crucial welterweight clash that’s headlining Saturday’s UFC event, as both fighters are hoping to assert their position in the division as title contenders

• A middleweight bout between Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan features in the co-main event, as the former looks to maintain his title shot credentials

Check out the latest odds ahead of UFC Fight Night 278 below. You can also find our picks and predictions for each bout in more detail.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim - Odds

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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim - Picks & Predictions

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim - Welterweight Division

• Our pick: Gabriel Bonfim (+102) at FanDuel

Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan - Middleweight Division

• Our pick: Brendan Allen by Submission (+210) at FanDuel

Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan - Lightweight Division

• Our pick: Fares Ziam (-320) at FanDuel

Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna - Bantamweight Division

• Our pick: Santiago Luna (+114) at FanDuel

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa - Light Heavyweight Division

• Our pick: Iwo Baraniewski (-390) at FanDuel

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim - Welterweight Division

It has been almost two years since Muhammad won the UFC Welterweight Championship with a decision victory over Leon Edwards. Since then, he has lost his only two fights, both by decision against Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry. Despite those recent defeats, he’s the -130 favorite with FanDuel for his bout with Bonfim.

Streaking Bonfim has won his last four straight bouts, including a second-round knockout win over Randy Brown last time out. That put him up to No. 11 in the rankings, and a win over the No. 5 ranked contender this weekend would firmly put him in the mix. The 28-year-old has just one loss in his pro career, and boasts an impressive 6-1 record in the UFC.

Bonfim is particularly strong on the ground, with 13 of his 19 career wins being via submission. Muhammad rarely submits his opponents, but is a strong grappler himself with a 90% takedown defense. While the former likes to finish fights early, the latter is more than happy for the fight to go the distance, proven by 75% of wins coming by decision.

Age could play a key role in who wins this matchup. “Remember the Name” is almost 38, so Bonfim has nearly 10 years of youth on his side. That bodes particularly well for the Brazilian who likes to finish fights early and has a dangerous striking ability.

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Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan - Middleweight Division

No.4 ranked middleweight contender Allen will meet US fighter Edmen Shahbazyan in the co-main event, and will look to bolster his position in the rankings with a win over “The Golden Boy”, who has won his last three consecutive bouts. Allen is the -220 favorite with FanDuel for this one.

“All in” has won his last two bouts back-to-back, picking up wins over Marvin Vettori and Reinier de Ridder. The 30-year-old had lost his two prior fights against Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez, so his most recent wins have propelled him back up the rankings. Allen will want to take Shahbazyan to the mat as early as possible so that he can utilize his strong grappling skills.

Shahbazyan knows that a victory here will put him inside the Top 10 and take his winning streak to four. The 28-year-old is starting to find some momentum after a streak of just two wins and five losses from 2020 up to 2024. He’s an impressive striker with serious knockout potential, but Allen hasn't been stopped early since December 2021.

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Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan - Lightweight Division

Riding hot on a six-fight win streak, French fighter Fares Ziam is the -320 favorite with FanDuel for his bout with Tom Nolan in Vegas. He finished Nazim Sadykhov inside two rounds in his last outing at UFC 323 last December to put himself inside the Top 15 of the lightweight rankings. “The Smile Killer” has won two of his last three fights with early finishes, and has impressed in the UFC with his technical kickboxing.

Australian opponent Nolan also enters this bout on a win streak, winning his last four fights. “Big Train” has just one pro loss on his record, which came just over two years ago when he was finished inside the first round by Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut. Victory over the streaking Ziam will prove he should be taken seriously in the division.

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Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna - Bantamweight Division

It will be Santiago Luna who meets Bryce Mitchell this weekend after Victor Henry pulled out at the end of last month. Mitchell is the -146 favorite with FanDuel, as he looks to gain some momentum following his decision win over Said Nurmagomedov last July in his return to bantamweight. “Thug Nasty” fought some top opponents at 145 lbs, including Ilia Topuria, but he couldn’t establish himself in the division. It will be interesting to see how he continues following his move down to 135 lbs and if his grappling game still holds up.

At just 21-years-old, Luna has already had two fights in the UFC, going 2-0 with the promotion. He’s yet to lose in his career and he’s showing plenty of promise. A win over Mitchell will establish himself even further as a top prospect in the division. A well-balanced fighter, “Border Boy” will need to defend Mitchell’s takedowns if he is to find the win in this matchup.

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Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa - Light Heavyweight Division

Unbeaten Iwo Baraniewski will open up the UFC main card this weekend against Junior Tafa. The Pole is the big -390 favorite with FanDuel for this bout, with many enjoying the power and KO ability he’s shown in his first two fights in the UFC. He’ll look to apply the pressure on Tafa early doors and make it six successive knockout victories.

The same can’t be said for Tafa who has struggled across his career, going 7-5. “The Juggernaut” is 3-5 with the promotion, but did knock out Kevin Christian in the first round last month. He’s only been knocked out once in his career thus far, with his last three defeats all coming by submission. With both fighters rarely seeing their bouts go the distance, it feels extremely likely that this one will end early.

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How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

• Location: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

• When: Saturday, June 6

• Time: 8:00 PM ET

• How: Paramount+