Kentucky Derby Picks 2024: Fierceness and Sierra Leone Headline the First Leg of the Triple Crown

Kentucky Derby 2024 Odds

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My Top 3 Picks to Win the Kentucky Derby

Sierra Leone

One of the two clear favorites in the field, this son of Gun Runner has continued to impress since being purchased for $2.3 million as a yearling. In four career races, he is only a nose shy of coming into the Run for the Roses undefeated. His lone loss came last fall in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, where he rallied to take the lead before being re-passed by Dornoch on the wire. 

In 2024, he has been even better. In his seasonal debut, he came from way back to defeat the strongest field for any Derby prep this year in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes over a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. Next out, he flew home to win Keeneland’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. In all of his races, he has been a powerful finisher who looks ideally suited for the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. 

Trained by one of America’s best, Chad Brown, and to be ridden by a perennial leading rider at Churchill Downs, Tyler Gaffalione, all signs point to a strong effort by the second choice on the morning line. With a strong early pace expected for this year’s Kentucky Derby, I look for Sierra Leone to be finishing best of all. He is my top pick.

Catching Freedom

Another colt who should relish a fast early pace in the Kentucky Derby is the Louisiana Derby winner, Catching Freedom. After running a solid third behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star in his fourth career outing, the son of Constitution continued his steady improvement by coming from last to win the million-dollar race going away. 

As America’s longest major prep for the Kentucky Derby, the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16-miles should well prepare the winner for the demanding trip on the first Saturday in May. Trained by Brad Cox, I have the two-time stakes winner rated just behind Sierra Leone, but at 8/1 on the morning line, he offers excellent value. To be ridden by Flavien Prat, he is likely to run a good race on Saturday and to be right in the mix in the late stages. 

Honor Marie

Continuing the trend of liking late runners best in this year’s field, Honor Marie is my top long shot in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Honor Code was a good rallying second last time in the Louisiana Derby behind Catching Freedom in his second start of the season. Last year, all three of his starts came at Churchill Downs and all three were good, highlighted by an impressive win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. 

Back at his home base, the 20/1 shot on the morning line should be poised to run his best race yet as a 3-year-old. Unlike the top two picks, he has yet to win in two starts this year, but his progression is good and I know he likes the track. Given a fast pace, he also should be finishing full of run in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets and Payout (Based on My Picks)

$5 Exacta Part Wheel

Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, and Fierceness over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, and Domestic Product = $150 

Bet on My Exacta Pick at FanDuel Racing

$1 Trifecta Part Wheel

Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience + Domestic Product over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, Domestic Product, Just a Touch, and Forever Young = $84 

Bet on My Trifecta Pick at FanDuel Racing

$1 Trifecta Part Wheel

Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, Domestic Product, Just a Touch + Forever Young over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, and Domestic Product = $80

Bet on My Trifecta Pick at FanDuel Racing

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Where to Bet on the Kentucky Derby

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How to Watch the Kentucky Derby 2024

• What: Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) 

• Location: Churchill Downs

• Time: Saturday, May 4 -- 6:57 pm Eastern time

• How to Watch: NBC

• Purse: $5,000,000