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CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca Prediction: Liga MX Title in Sight for Monterrey

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Published February 16, 2024
8 min read
  • CF Monterrey kept their unbeaten run in the Clausura 2024 campaign alive after a thrilling 3-2 win over Pachuca last weekend 

  • Deportivo Toluca tumbled down the table after a late goal by Necaxa held the club to a 3-3 draw last weekend 

  • Deportivo Toluca were the home side when these teams met in the Apertura 2023 season. The hosts won that encounter 1-0

CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca Odds

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Game result Odds
CF Monterrey -133
Draw +290
Deportivo Toluca +310

CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca Pick

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CF Monterrey vs Deportivo Toluca Prediction

CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca Predictions

Monterrey’s Clausura campaign started with back-to-back 2-0 wins over Puebla and Santos Laguna. The first minor setback came in the form of a 1-1 draw against Queretaro in the third match. The club returned to winning ways and eased past San Luis 3-1 before holding Club America to a 1-1 draw. A commanding lead slipped from Monterrey’s hands in the last match against Pachuca, but the club held on to clinch a 3-2 win. 

A topsy-turvy season continues for Toluca as they have drawn three, won two, and lost one of their first six games of the season. The campaign started with a 2-2 draw against Queretaro, followed by a commanding 4-1 win over Mazatlan. Puebla held Toluca to another draw in the third match before Chivas Guadalajara handed them their first defeat of the season. Toluca bounced back with a 4-1 win over Club Leon before they were held to a draw against Necaxa.

Toluca are one of the most unpredictable sides, and they are up against a Monterrey side that is hungrier than ever for a league title. The bookmakers have backed Monterrey as the favorites because they have the better team, good recent results, and a home advantage. Toluca may be mercurial, but they are not strong enough to topple the hosts in their own backyard.

Previous Meetings

The head-to-head record between these two strong clubs is evenly balanced. Since 2010, Monterrey and Toluca have locked horns 27 times in Liga MX. Both teams have nabbed victory on nine occasions each, and the remaining nine fixtures have ended in draws.

The two sides also clashed in the CONCACAF Champions Cup Playoffs in the 2011 season. Monterrey won both legs. When these clubs clashed in the Apertura 2023 season, Juan Dominguez scored the only goal of the match as Toluca nabbed a 1-0 win.

When Monterrey last played hosts in the Clausura 2023 season, Arturo Gonzalez’s brace helped the home side clinch all three points with a 2-1 win. Maximilian Araujo scored for Toluca that evening, and it turned out to be a consolation goal.

CF Monterrey Must Avoid Silly Mistake in Crucial Games

The Liga MX title is in sight for Monterrey this season, but they will approach every game cautiously. A careless approach in the past at a crucial juncture has cost the club dearly, and not repeating that mistake will be the primary objective of Monterrey this season.

Finishing in the playoff spots will be crucial, so Monterrey would like to stay in the top four during the regular season. They are off to a good start, and if they do not drop unnecessary points, especially at home, they will undoubtedly bag a playoff spot.

Hosts Have Not Lost at Home Against Toluca in Eight Years  

In the current Clausura campaign, Monterrey have played four games at home. They have won three and drawn one. The only draw came against Queretaro, which was quite surprising. The club needs to win as many games at home as possible.

Monterrey will have a psychological advantage ahead of the next game because they have not lost a home league game against Toluca since the Clausura 2016 season. Since then, Monterrey have won six and drawn one against Toluca at Estadio BBVA.

Star Striker Could Miss Next Match  

Brandon Vazquez has scored three goals in four appearances in his debut Liga MX season for Monterrey. However, the striker missed the last match because of personal reasons.

In his absence, the quartet of Sergio Canales, Jesus Gallardo, Jordi Cortizo, and German Berterame did well against Pachuca, and the same could be expected from them if Vazquez does not return in time for the next match.

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Deportivo Toluca Aiming for Their First Away Win of the Season   

Six games into the Clausura 2024 season, Toluca have won just two games, and both those victories have come in their own backyard. They have played four games on the road and are yet to register their first away win this season.

Coach Renato Paiva will be desperate to break the duck, but playing against Monterrey is never easy. The chances of Toluca winning the next match are relatively low, considering Monterrey’s home form and Toluca’s form at Estadio Hidalgo.

Goalscoring Statistics Are Going Through the Roof  

Despite sitting in the lower play-in spots of the Liga MX table, Toluca have the best goalscoring stats so far. They have scored 16 goals in six games, bringing their average to almost three goals per game.

Jean Meneses has scored the most goals for the club, which has 12 different goalscorers already. The positive side to this stat is that there are plenty of goalscorers, while the negative side indicates an absence of a prolific goalscorer for Toluca.

Defensive Concerns Are Mounting for the Visitors

While the performance in the final third has been decent for Toluca lately, the club is struggling to keep cleansheets at the other end. The ten-time Liga MX champions have failed to secure a shutout in the last 17 games across all competitions.

Their last cleansheet came in September after beating Pachuca 5-0. The result came directly after a 1-0 win over Monterrey. However, since then, Toluca’s defense has been permeable.

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How to Watch CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca

  • Teams: CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca

  • Location: Estadio BBVA

  • Time: Sunday, February 18 at 9:00 pm ET

  • How to Watch: Univision, Telemundo, Fox Sports, ESPN, Vix and Sling TV

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Nikhil Kalro

681 Articles

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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