NBA Predictions Today: Game 1 and Series Picks for Monday’s Conference Semifinal Openers

The NBA playoffs are entering a new phase. The first round is over, and the first two conference semifinal series get started on Monday night. To get things started, we are offering predictions for both games on Monday, as well as how those series will end based on Kalshi’s prediction market.

Best NBA Predictions for Monday, May 4

Values courtesy of Kalshi. If you’re new to prediction markets, you can sign up today using the Kalshi promo code WSN and claim a $10 bonus after trading your first 100 contracts. Find more info in our detailed Kalshi review.

Knicks Beat 76ers by 7.5 Points in Game 1 (No, 52%)

It feels like every game in this series is going to be tough to call. The Knicks are the obvious home favorites in Game 1, and they certainly seem to have found their groove after three dominant performances against the Hawks to close out their previous series. But they’ve also had a few days to get out of rhythm and could be a little overconfident heading into this series.

Meanwhile, the 76ers are riding a huge wave of momentum after winning three straight against the Celtics. Philly is bound to have some fatigue at some point, but that is more likely to catch up with them in Game 2 or 3. Keep in mind that the 76ers went 3-1 on the road against Boston and 3-1 with Joel Embiid on the floor. That puts the smart money on the side of the 76ers and the points.

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Knicks Win Series 4-3 (Yes, 22%)

While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 76ers keep things close or pull off an upset in Game 1, I expect the Knicks to prevail. The Knicks won the last two regular-season games between these teams, including one in which Embiid played. While Embiid saved the day against Boston, he entered midway through the series. Given his injury history, staying healthy and productive over seven games may not be as easy.

As it relates to Embiid, the Knicks have Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson providing physicality and resistance inside. The rest of the team also started to click offensively late in the series against the Hawks. They also have Jalen Brunson to lean on when things get dicey. Over seven games, the Knicks should prove themselves to be the better team despite Philly’s first-round upset of the Celtics.

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Spurs Beat Timberwolves by 15.5 Points in Game 1 (Yes, 41%)

It looks clear that this will be the least competitive series in the conference semifinals. San Antonio is a double-digit favorite in Game 1, and I expect them to have no trouble covering that big spread in Game 1. The Spurs took Game 2 off against the Trail Blazers, but they won every other game easily and will come out in Game 1 looking to make a statement.

In fairness, the Timberwolves are a little better than Portland. But with Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo sidelined, they aren’t that much better. With the Spurs scoring at least 110 points in four of their five games in the first round and strong defensively with Victor Wembanyama defending the basket, the T’Wolves will have a hard time keeping this game close without Edwards.

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Spurs Win Series 4-1 (Yes, 35%)

The Spurs won their first-round series in five games, and I expect a repeat of that against Minnesota. The double-digit spread in Game 1 says everything you need to know about the gap between these teams. Without Edwards, the Timberwolves simply aren’t the type of team that can compete in the conference semifinals.

In fairness, Minnesota found a way to close out its series against the Nuggets after losing Edwards. The T’Wolves were 3-0 at home in that series, which makes me think they’ll be able to steal one game at home against San Antonio. But the Spurs haven’t had enough success in recent years to take anything for granted, so they aren’t going to take the T’Wolves easy, which should lead to a quick series.

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