NBA Predictions Today: Game 1 and Series Picks for Tuesday’s Conference Semifinal Openers

The unpredictable nature of the NBA playoffs was on display Monday night with two surprising results. The Knicks blew away the red-hot 76ers, while Anthony Edwards made an unexpected return from injury to lead the T’Wolves to an upset win over the Spurs. The other two conference semifinals get started on Tuesday night, and we have our predictions for Tuesday’s games, as well as picks for how those series will unfold.

Best NBA Predictions for Tuesday, May 5

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Pistons Beat Cavaliers in Game 1 (No, 42%)

The Western Conference had a road team win Game 1, so perhaps the Eastern Conference will have one too. Both teams are in the unique position of coming off Game 7 wins on Sunday, so it’s been a quick turnaround for each. But the Pistons had to expend a lot more energy in their series to overcome a 3-1 deficit. That could favor Cleveland in Game 1.

Of course, the Cavs failed to win a road game in their series against the Raptors. However, Cleveland was one of the better road teams during the regular season, going 25-19 straight up and 8-5 against the spread as a road underdog. With the spread being tight, we might as well take advantage of the value being offered with a Cleveland straight-up win.

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Cavaliers Win Eastern Conference Semifinals (Yes, 48%)

If the Cavs can take Game 1 on the road, things will set up well for them to win the series. While the Pistons were able to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the last round, Detroit doesn’t want to fall behind again. Keep in mind that the Pistons are still a team on the rise without a ton of playoff experience despite being the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

On the contrary, Cleveland’s core is in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. The addition of James Harden this season also gives Cleveland a player with well over 100 career playoff starts. The Cavaliers also have a far more balanced team, whereas the Pistons have been overly reliant on Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris. Over seven games, that depth and balance favor the Cavs.

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Thunder Beats Lakers by 16.5 Points in Game 1 (Yes, 47%)

If the Eastern Conference can have a blowout in Game 1, so can the Western Conference. The Thunder got accustomed to winning by comfortable margins in the first round, and there’s no reason to think that will change in this round. After all, Oklahoma City went 36-7 at home during the season, which makes the Thunder poised to keep dominating at home.

On the other side, there are reasons to question the Lakers ahead of Game 1. They already showed signs of slowing down in the last round, going up 3-0 and then losing consecutive games. They also had the benefit of playing the Rockets without Kevin Durant in that series. It’ll be a big step up to playing a stacked Oklahoma City team, and that shell shock could lead to a lopsided Game 1.

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Thunder Wins Series 4-2 (Yes, 15%)

Even if Game 1 is a blowout, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Thunder will steamroll the Lakers in four games the way they did to the Suns. Granted, most people are expecting this to be a quick series. But that just means there is excellent value in predicting that the Lakers will find a way to hang on longer than expected.

After all, LeBron James is going to give this series everything he has left in the tank. The Lakers are also likely to get a lift from Luka Doncic at some point. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has some injury uncertainty with Jalen Williams. All of those factors could be enough to allow the Lakers to win two games in this series, forcing a 6-game series, even if the Thunder is destined to advance.

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