Best NBA Predictions Today: Will Spurs Force a Game 7 in Western Conference Finals?

It’s been a great series and quite a playoff run by the San Antonio Spurs, but for the first time, they are facing elimination in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday. Will the Spurs be able to hold serve at home and force a Game 7 Saturday in Oklahoma City, or will the Thunder move one step closer to winning back-to-back titles?

We have dissected Game 6 and have our best predictions for Thursday’s elimination game.

Best NBA Predictions for Thursday, May 28

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Spurs Beat Thunder by 3.5 in Game 6 (Yes, 51%)

A series like this deserves to go seven games, although that’s not why we’re backing San Antonio in Game 6. Both teams have managed to make adjustments when needed, leading to a back-and-forth series. It’s now San Antonio’s turn to adjust after losing Game 5. The Spurs have had an answer for every setback during the playoffs, and there’s no reason why that should change.

Keep in mind that during the last game played in San Antonio, the Spurs dominated in a 21-point win over OKC. They know that they can get the better of the Thunder, especially at home. Plus, the Spurs are the healthier team, while the Thunder aren’t sure if Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell will play. The deeper we get in the series, the more those absences matter, moving the needle in San Antonio’s favor for Game 6.

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Thunder vs. Spurs Over 218.5 Total Points in Game 6 (Yes, 54%)

Just one of the five games in this series has stayed under the point total, so it doesn’t make sense to take a chance on the under. Let’s face it, the 82 points the Thunder scored in Game 4 look like an aberration. Both teams have scored over 100 points in every other game, so there is a rather narrow path to victory if you take the under.

Admittedly, we expected both teams to take a step up defensively late in the series. However, we’re fresh off the highest-scoring game of the series, with 241 total points being scored in Game 5. The surprising part is that the over/under total hasn’t shot up. Since that happened, betting on over 218.5 points feels like the safer choice.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10+ Assists in Game 6 (Yes, 33%)

We’ve been hammering Gilgeous-Alexander’s assist total all series, and we’re not going to stop. In fact, we’re going to up the ante a little bit with a more aggressive bet. He’s racked up at least nine assists in four of five games during the Western Conference Finals, including two games with 12 assists. While eight is a safe total for Gilgeous-Alexander, there is great value in betting on the MVP to have 10+ assists in Game 6.

In each of the last three games, Gilgeous-Alexander has taken fewer than 20 shots. That means the San Antonio defense is forcing the ball out of his hands, which gives Gilgeous-Alexander more assist opportunities. Of course, he’s been able to score plenty of points at the foul line during this series. But he’s still a willing passer and takes what the defense gives him. The Spurs have allowed him to rack up tons of assists in this series, and that’s likely to continue.

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Stephon Castle 20+ Points in Game 6 (Yes, 38%)

Everyone expects Victor Wambanyama to carry the Spurs if they’re going to win Game 6. But San Antonio will also need other players to step up, with Castle being the top candidate. He’s averaging 19.5 points per game during the playoffs after scoring 16.7 points per game during the regular season. That makes him an excellent candidate to supplement Wambanyama by scoring 20+ points in Game 6.

Castle is fresh off a 24-point performance in Game 5, scoring 20+ points for the second time this series. It was the first time he made more than one perimeter shot during the Western Conference Finals, so his confidence should be high heading into Game 6. Other than Game 3, Castle’s shot attempts have been consistent with a player who’s capable of scoring at least 20 points. With Wembanyama being a marked man and De’Aaron Fox playing hurt, Castle needs to be the player to step up if the Spurs expect to force a Game 7.

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