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The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics are counting down the hours until tip-off in Game One of the NBA Finals. Boston went 2-0 in regular-season matchups and is a large favorite to win the series, but Dallas has already emerged from a tough Western Conference and won three straight series it started on the road.
Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Game One of the NBA Finals on Thursday.
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Washington emerged as one of the most important and impactful contributors on the Mavericks’ roster among players not named Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving. He went over in eight of his last 11 games and should be able to grab even more rebounds since the Celtics take so many threes, which leads to long rebounds that usually go over the heads of centers.
The Celtics have been great on the boards throughout the playoffs but do most of their damage by gang rebounding with wings. Washington’s size and athleticism should allow him to give Boston a great challenge, and he figured to be on the court for heavy minutes after averaging 39.4 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.
Bet on P.J. Washington. Props at FanDuel
In Game 2, Horford will become the player with the second-most playoff appearances without a championship in NBA history. His level of desperation to finally break through and win a title should motivate him, even as he returns to the bench with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis returning to the lineup.
Horford went over this line in 12 of 14 playoff games, several of which included him coming off the bench. The Celtics have been comfortable switching him into smaller players but could abandon that strategy because of the talent of the Mavs’ backcourt, which would just put him closer to the basket.
Bet on Al Horford Props at FanDuel
Porzingis is making his long-awaited return from a calf injury he suffered in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs against the Miami Heat. With all of that time off, and given how well the Dallas defense has played since the trade deadline, we expect a slow shooting night in his initial return.
Pozingis played the Mavs one time during the regular season and scored 24 points. He also averaged 20.1 during the regular season but is only at 12.3 in the playoffs, partially because of his injury but also because he scored just six points on 1-11 shooting in his second outing of the postseason.
Bet on Kristaps Porzingis Props at FanDuel
The under on Tatum threes was essentially a free space for most of the playoffs until he went over in Games 3 and 4 against the Indiana Pacers. Even with those games on the board, he went under this line in 11 of 14 playoff outings and shot just 29 percent during that time, a substantial decrease from his 37.6 percent standard during the irregular season.
The Mavericks held teams to 35.6 percent three-point shooting in the playoffs, a number that is certainly passable given their scoring ability. They also have size at every position except for point guard and have players that will be able to stay in front of Tatum and challenge him whenever he looks to pull up for long-rangers.
Bet on Jayson Tatum Props at FanDuel
The Celtics are a switch-heavy team that doesn’t like to blitz much. In fact, they blitzed Doncic at the third-lowest rate of any team in the league. But despite their overall history, we believe they’re more likely to send extra bodies at Irving, not Doncic, since his smaller size makes him easier to bother.
Irving diced up the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that blitzed him heavily, with 6.2 assists per game in the second round of the playoffs. He also averaged 5.2 for the playoffs overall and is one of the best big-game players of all time, not to mention his return to Boston will strike a chord with him internally.
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